Stockholm Syndrome: when legacy pilots agree that an a/c CANNOT be flown by mainline

[waveflyer]

Hook, line, and sinker- 10 years of beating you over the head has got you forgetting that every great airline started out flying airplanes smaller than a Brazilia.

So, do you want to keep the money losing 50 seaters around longer? Yes, there will be 70 more 76 seaters eventually (after all 88 717s come), and then there will be a ratio to maintain with regard to mainline vs DCI. If mainline decreases, then DCI has to decrease. Those 102 70 seat RJs out there will probably fill in for the 50 seaters on their routes that can't make money. That means they have a chance of making money for Detla, rather than losing it. Mainline growth tied in with DCI growth. It can't be one sided DCI growth anymore. That happened after BK and 9-11. This TA would prevent that. Ratios that can't be moved.

And you haven't explained how a 76 seat mainline operation would work? Who flies what, who are the FAs, who are the mechanics? How would that be funded? Maybe if we got ZERO raises, they could pay for that. Right now DCI operations are done at razor thin profit margins, with some going into BK.

Trust me, I initially didn't like a lot of this. Then, I tried to look at the whole deal, improvements in many sections, and then the duration of the deal. I wanted more pay too, and I wasn't thrilled about extra big RJs, until I heard about the ratios, the 150 less 50 seaters, and the better scope protection in INTL and Code Shares. Overall, it isn't a bad deal.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jar Jar
"RJs making money only keeps them around longer."


This^^^
Good general- that line of thinking proves at least 1 pilot who swore up and down on FI that he did get what was wrong with scope - doesn't.
I presume you just said that so I'd stop calling you sellouts??

The idea is this- if delta can't make $$ with an airplane without whipsawing 4 or 5 separate companies against each other to artificially keep labor wages low and violate the ENTIRE CONCEPT OF SENIORITY AND EXPERIENCE BASED PAY- THEN MAYBE THEY OUGHT NOT BE ALLOWED BY YOUR "UNION" (a joke of a union) to FLY THEM AT ALL.

If you need that false market and the thousands of disenfranchised pilots who will never have the leverage to improve their lot by much - then it is DALPA's RESPONSIBILITY TO STAND UP AND NOT HAVE IT.

You guys repeatedly fail in your responsibilities as a union- amazing considering the slippery slope you know scope tends to slide down
__________________
DELTA PILOTS ARE ALWAYS WILLING TO SELL OUT.

AND THIS TIME, AGAIN, FOR SO LITTLE- At least in the past, your predecessors got you paid.

 

[Jiminmem]

Hey, not all of us are blind. I'm ashamed of this TA, as are many others.

 

[waveflyer]

Jim, I know-

It's the crowd that sold out long ago- I know there are thousands of you who really do understand how far off the original intent outsourcing has gone-

Not being there on the line, I was hopeful that you were the majority by now....

Now, not so much...

 

[Jiminmem]

I do too. Thre are too many here that are jumping for joy over the TA. I thought maybe in ATL there would be some, but not in NY. I don't know, there are a number of that see thru this agreement, but far too many that are scared to say no.

 

[waveflyer]

It's been a widebody mentality there for 20-30 years now-

And I hate to hear that- scared?

I never thought DALPA was ever scared to say no- especially at a profitable time - I mean they got huge raises after 9/11- DALPA never been pussies, just too arrogant to care. Unconcerned with the domestic small stuff-
("Delta, follow the md-80", "we'll follow the 'light twin'")

But maybe the last decade has beat your group up a bit.

It really shouldn't be that big a deal- sure, get all the 76 seaters you need- but DALPA flies them.

 

[cocknbull]

I thought Stockholm syndrome was when captives began identifying with their captors.

 

[waveflyer]

Yeah-
Delta spends a good amount of the last decade in BK, slashing pay, eroding scope, always threatening to scatter the whole place- the proverbial "gun to DALPAs head" as GL and bill lumberg like to say-

Now that the gun is gone, giving up more scope is something they're grateful for.

A variant of SS

 

[Speedtape]

Actually, you have your concepts and perspective wrong. Consider the following.

The argument for consideration should be the "Plantation" Concept. To keep it simple, there is a school of thought that it is a better business decision to allow outsourcing on the equipment that the majority of mainline pilots do not want to fly, and certainly would not retire on. Why is it a better business decision? Quite simply, that flying can be performed at the Regional level at much lower, overall costs than it can be performed at mainline.

Why is the outsourcing somewhat acceptable? Lower, overall costs mean a better chance of profitability for the Company. If the DALPA acceptable level of outsourcing can produce better profits, then some portion of those profits can be tapped into to improve pay and benefits on larger mainline airplanes that the majority of mainline pilots want to fly and retire on. These larger aircraft have a better potential for pay and benefit because of lower seat mile costs. Otherwise, the Company's ability to pay for large airplane pay and benefits would be mitigated if the flying was not outsourced at lower overall costs.

Certainly, there are junior pilots that do not want to buy into this concept. Those pilots, being short-sighted, would prefer to have that smaller equipment at mainline so some could fly left seat sooner. Even in the short run, because of the new pay scales, a third year DC9 F/O will be making around a $100 an hour. One could rationally speculate that higher rates on the traditional mainline airplanes have been adjusted up basically for the relief in scope.

The negotiated rates on the CRJ900 are extremely high as compared to the regional industry average. One could speculate that those high rates were negotiated high as a strategy to cause the costs to be high, so that those aircraft would be destined for the Connection carriers. Why? Loop back and re-read paragraph 2.

In the end, some mainline pilots (junior pilots) will still be upset and vote no! However, because of the negotiated pay rates on the larger, traditional mainline airplanes are so improved, the majority of the pilots will vote yes! In the long run, even the dissenters will be better off--just think beyond 3 years of seniority! The vote only requires 50% + 1 member to pass. The odds are quite good on this one!

 

[79%N1]

Why doesn't waveflyer and his cronies put his money where his mouth is and push for one list with all DCI pilots. Seems like this solves all the problems. Or, are the planes good enough for you, but NOT the pilots. Hey, no more outsourcing that way! Until you push that with your DALPA, save the speeches.

 

[RJ Bum]

Why doesn't waveflyer and his cronies put his money where his mouth is and push for one list with all DCI pilots. Seems like this solves all the problems. Or, are the planes good enough for you, but NOT the pilots. Hey, no more outsourcing that way! Until you push that with your DALPA, save the speeches.

I believe waveflyer is SWA... Will never happen, DAL guys have never shown that they can't look past their own ego. They had the perfect opportunity when DAL purchased Comair and ASA 13 yrs ago.... If it is a 777 or a C152, bottom line, if says Delta on the side, a DAL pilot should be flying it and that goes for all carriers. One list, one voice, one contract. But this is the real world, pilots will be pilots...

 

[waveflyer]

Speedtape - I know you have your rationalizations. But don't for a minute believe your own bullsh/t.

Outsourcing affects every pilot at all seniority levels-

Anyone read his post and not understand why I call DALPA sellouts?

 

[Speedtape]

I believe waveflyer is SWA... Will never happen, DAL guys have never shown that they can't look past their own ego. They had the perfect opportunity when DAL purchased Comair and ASA 13 yrs ago.... If it is a 777 or a C152, bottom line, if says Delta on the side, a DAL pilot should be flying it and that goes for all carriers. One list, one voice, one contract. But this is the real world, pilots will be pilots...

Yes they will; thus the whole history of the B scale, relief on scope, and the age 65 issue are just some of the examples!

 

[Speedtape]

Speedtape - I know you have your rationalizations. But don't for a minute believe your own bullsh/t.

Outsourcing affects every pilot at all seniority levels-

Anyone read his post and not understand why I call DALPA sellouts?

Obviously, you are in the bottom 10%?

 

[PCL_128]

Obviously, you are in the bottom 10%?

He doesn't even work at Delta. He's a SWA pilot.

 

[Jar Jar]

Facts:
This TA reduces the # of RJ seats flown by 16.2%. A total of 5830 seats are removed. A total of 153 aircraft are removed. The average seats per outsourced airframes increases by 12.4%.

Analysis:

If this trend is replicated exactly in terms of percentages (not numbers) each subsequent contract these will be the results:

Average # of seats per outsourced airframe / Total # of outsourced airframes:
Current: 59.98 / 603
TA2012: 67.42 / 450
2017: 75.78 / 377
2022: 85.17 / 316
2027: 95.74 / 264
2032: 107.61 / 221

Trend replicated in terms of total numbers (not percentages):

Average # of seats per outsourced airframe / Total # of outsourced airframes:
Current: 59.98 / 603
TA2012: 67.42 / 450
2017: 75.78 / 297
2022: 85.17 / 144
2027: 95.74 / -9
2032: 107.61 / -162 (read on to see why im using negatives)

Averaging the differences between percentages and total numbers gives us a fair idea of what could be expected in future contracts if the current negotiating environment remains the same:

Average Seats @ DCI / Total Airframes at DCI (rounded to nearest whole #)
Current: 60 / 603
TA2012: 67 / 450
2017: 76 / 337
2022: 85 / 230
2027: 96 / 127
2032: 108 / 30

All I'm doing is projecting a straight line from where DAL is today to where they will be on scope when they pass this TA - then drawing it forward through the next cycles.


Opinion:
Based on the cyclic history of the airline industry I think that the odds of maintaining the current economic conditions that this TA was negotiated under for 25 additional years is nil to negative.

I do believe your TA has gains, but I'd say given the environment they are astonishingly minor.

 

[Dan Roman]

Speedtape made a good counterpoint. The reality is feed is a very good thing and does in fact allow for expansion. A certain amount of RJ feed creates jobs, not kills them. And yes the jobs they create are on larger A/C at much higher wages for mainline pilots (why is that a bad thing). I also don't think it's economically feasible to absorb the cost of keeping the RJ flying on property and the transient jobs they would provide.
The gray area of course, is when does that become job outsourcing and were do you draw the line? None of us on here really know were that line is. Looking from the sidelines it does seem like DAL let if got too far, but,
it seems like this TA is addressing that. Obviously ALPA can't just insist on all RJ flying to just go away immediately, unless they want to see DAL lose a lot of money and furlough a bunch of pilots.
It's never as black and white as some want to make it.

Wave, how do you reconcile the fact that SWAPA was willing to outsource all 737 international expansion to Mexico and Canada at SWA? That would be like DAL saying they were going to allow all European 767 flying be done by another carrier. Seems to me that's a bigger "sellout".

 

[waveflyer]

Dan, if you want to talk about SWA and outsourcing , begin a thread and do your bs there-
You do know that swa is my 6th airline?
I'm talking about a subject that affected me and thousands of my peers- if you want to distract from that, do it somewhere else.

Ps- if Hawaiian replaced all their 717 inter-island flying with outsourced RJs, you'd be good with that???.

This isn't just about DALPA and delta. It's a reaffirmation of outsourced -900's becoming industry standard by the most profitable and influential pilot union we have in the world, at a time when AA is in bankruptcy and seeking to make 80+ seats it's new normal, and when UniCal is fighting like hell to hold onto what scope it has- the implications are global-
Where if Delta can figure out how to create a -900 mainline program for all new -900's transitioning the rest as contracts expire, that would support united and american in their scope battles-
If delta, as the most profitable legacy, caves on this, it will give leverage to unical mgmt, and show the AA bk judge what is acceptable for profitable companies, therefore bk AA ought to outsource 80-90 seats as they are asking for.

PCL claims correctly that we all piggyback and pattern bargain- but the implications from delta are farther reaching than just delta's situation reducing its 50's-
It gives leverage to all other carriers trying to outsource bigger planes

 

[CFIT]

Facts:
This TA reduces the # of RJ seats flown by 16.2%. A total of 5830 seats are removed. A total of 153 aircraft are removed. The average seats per outsourced airframes increases by 12.4%.





Have the DALPA balloon knots ever considered that the CRJ 200's are going away no matter what?

Even if gas was free-

Even if regional pilots paid a hundred bucks an hour just to sit in them-

Even if they were the highest profit margin equipement flying-

They are still going away.

Why?

Because they are done at 40,000 cycles. Nothing can be done with them after that.

And I know at Skywest, many have been sent to the desert for just that reason.


But just keep telling yourself that you are taking back scope.......

 

[Gillegan]

There has been growth in the last 20 years but it has largely been at the regionals - for the aforementioned slave wages. I would expect a concerted effort to address the numbers while minimizing the pay. Look for modest improvements in regional pay and a big effort to attack scope along with creative ways to get around the training (MPL?). Supply and demand should mean an improvement in pay but ironically, the inflexibility of the unions may actually slow down the pay increases as the pilots, stung by the stagnation of the last 15-20 years opt for stability and long term contracts over rolling the dice. And don't forget, the Railway Labor Act is geared to maintain the status quo.

That is something I wrote a while back regarding the upcoming pilot shortage and didn't really want to restate it but I think it's relevant for this discussion. In the larger picture, the legacies are looking at some big pilot recruitment numbers over the next 15 years and some pretty big costs associated with them. This is how they plan to address it - SCOPE. I really think that what's happening right now is a case of who gets their foot in the door first (larger planes outsourced). It might behoove the unions to do what they can to get the flying back to the legacies now, even if we have to hold our noses to do it.

 

[Speedtape]

The reality is, scope is necessary, but so is outsourcing as long as one Airline does it. What some are asking of DALPA is not even possible. And, why do you care when you gain an industry leading contract?

Feed is critical, outsourcing to get that feed is pivotal, and improved mainline pay and benefits is the goal! Delta has a coveted position and future in this industry because all these factors are components of their success.

It translates into a bright future for every pilot on the seniority list and those yet to be hired in the future!

DALPA achieved a formula for success in record time! There will be many new opportunities for even further growth on the horizon! You can not achieve those if you are grid-locked in negotiation hell for issues that if settled to some pilot's satisfaction would have predictable consequences that would handicap your potential. One only has to look to Phoenix and Charlotte for where that will take you.

Keep your eye on the ball. Celebrate the gains, look to the future, and don't get mired down in the goals that were unachieveable, and would have handicapped your success. Your loyalties are to your pilot group and the success of your Company.

You have no obligation to other pilots groups, especially one based in Dallas, who wants you to level the playing field so they can pick your pocket. Their day is coming and Atlanta is the battlefield!

 

[Jar Jar]

The reality is, scope is necessary, but so is outsourcing as long as one Airline does it.

Disagree.

All you need is one mgmt team with cajones to put up a national ad campaign that says "We dont outsource our pilots"

That should do the trick.

 

[Gillegan]

Speedtape,
I agree with you that "just say no" doesn't work. In fact, I'll go one further and say that popular pilot sentiment rarely takes into account the economic realities of running a business. Where we differ is what is happening today. I came to my conclusion by asking, "what would I do if I was running an airline and facing the huge pilot deficit numbers that appear to be coming?". I would try to mitigate my costs by outsourcing and reducing the barriers to entry - scope and MPL. I think that pilot unions need to look closer at how to make it economical to bring those jobs back to the legacies. I believe there are long term benefits to the profession to do so. The legacy pilots missed out on the expansion of the 90's due to allowing the RJ flying to be farmed out. The regional pilots hardly benefitted as they were all of a sudden stuck in what was supposed to be a stepping stone job with crap pay and benefits. Even the airlines themselves missed out as they were suckered in to buying lots of aircraft with high fuel/seat costs. As the price of fuel rises, the trend is going to be towards bigger aircraft. The airlines are going to try to minimize the cost of those larger aircraft by going with what they know has worked in the past - cheap regional pilots flying them. This will end up playing out with the legacies flying the wide bodies and the regionals flying the narrow bodies - at least until they can figure out how to farm out the wide bodies. The narrow body families of aircraft will continue to span the 100 - 180 seat range. The next step is going to be allowing the regionals to fly the 100 seaters (AMR). Then all it will take is some arbitrator somewhere to agree that it makes sense to allow them to fly the larger variants since the planes are "almost identical".

I'm arguing for some more creativity on all sides. It's not 1975 anymore. There has been a fundemental change in the economics of our profession. It sucks but it is what it is. I do think that right now is an opportunity. I'm not arguing for strikes or anything but rather to address the economic issues that are barriers to bringing that flying back.

 

[flyboyike]

In the end, some mainline pilots (junior pilots) will still be upset and vote no! However, because of the negotiated pay rates on the larger, traditional mainline airplanes are so improved, the majority of the pilots will vote yes!

All well and good until the only traditional mainline airplane left is the 747-800.

 

[Speedtape]

Speedtape,
I agree with you that "just say no" doesn't work. In fact, I'll go one further and say that popular pilot sentiment rarely takes into account the economic realities of running a business. Where we differ is what is happening today. I came to my conclusion by asking, "what would I do if I was running an airline and facing the huge pilot deficit numbers that appear to be coming?". I would try to mitigate my costs by outsourcing and reducing the barriers to entry - scope and MPL. I think that pilot unions need to look closer at how to make it economical to bring those jobs back to the legacies. I believe there are long term benefits to the profession to do so. The legacy pilots missed out on the expansion of the 90's due to allowing the RJ flying to be farmed out. The regional pilots hardly benefitted as they were all of a sudden stuck in what was supposed to be a stepping stone job with crap pay and benefits. Even the airlines themselves missed out as they were suckered in to buying lots of aircraft with high fuel/seat costs. As the price of fuel rises, the trend is going to be towards bigger aircraft. The airlines are going to try to minimize the cost of those larger aircraft by going with what they know has worked in the past - cheap regional pilots flying them. This will end up playing out with the legacies flying the wide bodies and the regionals flying the narrow bodies - at least until they can figure out how to farm out the wide bodies. The narrow body families of aircraft will continue to span the 100 - 180 seat range. The next step is going to be allowing the regionals to fly the 100 seaters (AMR). Then all it will take is some arbitrator somewhere to agree that it makes sense to allow them to fly the larger variants since the planes are "almost identical".

I'm arguing for some more creativity on all sides. It's not 1975 anymore. There has been a fundemental change in the economics of our profession. It sucks but it is what it is. I do think that right now is an opportunity. I'm not arguing for strikes or anything but rather to address the economic issues that are barriers to bringing that flying back.

I like what you framed up. I think we can all agree that there is a looming pilot shortage. Having looked at retirements at USAir, American, and Delta, (couldn't find UAL numbers) with the order being the airline with the most retirements in the next 10 years, the retirements alone will absorb a majority of the available regional airline pool! Most regional pilots want to move to the Majors and this will happen, based on retirements alone. This does not even take into account any growth. Demand will outweigh supply!

Having said that, there will only be a limited number of pilots, who, for whatever reason, stay at the regionals. But because of the mass exodus of the regional pilots, and very small numbers of military pilots that take the available mainline jobs, the regionals will shrink because they will not be able to staff the regional jobs!

In summary, don't waste negotiating capital trying to "take it all in", which is impossible and want happen! The outsourcing issue will be eliminated or greatly mitigated by the staffing demands of retirement alone. In the next few years when retirements accelerate, there will be a tremendous shortage on the regional level causing outsourcing to evaporate.

To exacerbate the above issue, entry level requirements in this profession (training costs in the $100K range and the regulated time requirements) will stifle the ability to supply pilots to the pipeline.

So, relax and take a deep breath for those who want scope tightened, the solution will be the result of economics in the near future!

Don't waste negotiating capital on scope! Put that capital in your contract and pockets now!

 

[flyboyike]

I like what you framed up. I think we can all agree that there is a looming pilot shortage. Having looked at retirements at USAir, American, and Delta, (couldn't find UAL numbers) with the order being the airline with the most retirements in the next 10 years, the retirements alone will absorb a majority of the available regional airline pool! Most regional pilots want to move to the Majors and this will happen, based on retirements alone. This does not even take into account any growth. Demand will outweigh supply!

I've been hearing that (or some version thereof) since before my first solo. Still waiting.

 

[Speedtape]

Look at retirement forecasts, demand, newly regulated time requirments, the cost of training, and the dried up pipeline! What is coming will do far more to end outsourcing than any negotiations. Why waste the capital and instead get the best pay and other benefits possible. DALPA just did everyone a big favor by raising the bar! Catch the wave or drown in your useless rants about outsourcing. The outsourcing issue will be resolved unless they automate flight in pilot-less RJs, and I am not sure anyone is ready for that ride!

 

[jayme]

Why waste the capital and instead get the best pay and other benefits possible. DALPA just did everyone a big favor by raising the bar! Catch the wave or drown in your useless rants about outsourcing. The outsourcing issue will be resolved unless they automate flight in pilot-less RJs, and I am not sure anyone is ready for that ride!

You are an idiot. Mpl will ensure that every pilot seat will be filled.

Delta pilots: we are begging you to fight for the future of the profession. Let the 50's die on the vine. 70's go to mainline as leases expire.

Every pilot who votes yes on this ta is complicit in the destruction of the proud profession that your predecessors built.

 

[General Lee]

Nobody likes outsourcing. I wish Dalpa and the pilots would not have let this get out of hand from the beginning. Throw in a BK, and it got worse. Those are the facts. Now where are we today? We still have a lot of 50 seat RJs, and many are getting close to their cycle limit. Some though, have continued lease payments through 2024. Do you want to keep a lot of them if they lose money for Delta? What about at UAL/CAL? Do you want to keep planes that lose money in high oil? Maybe a 70 seater or even a 76 seater might be able to turn a profit on that Monroe to IAH route? Could a 717 or 737 make a profit on that route? Maybe not. I know you want mainline pilots to fly those planes. What are the costs for putting them on the mainline certificate? Would the FAs and mechanics be mainline? Those costs would be twice what Regionals are doing now. I want mainline to profit so they can afford to buy some new wide bodies to take on Emirates and Singapore Airlines. I want to make $280 an hour in the left seat of a 777 or 744.

This TA sets actual limits and ratios that will benefit mainline pilots and mainline economics. 717s will come in and be tied to 70 76 seaters coming in, while dumping and capping 50 seaters at 125, dumping 150 of them. Then throw in better sick leave, better work rules, better INTL scope and domestic codeshare scope,an early out program to try to get the top 300 pilots to early out, and a 19.5% raise in only 3 years, and I would say it might be an easy choice. Going back to recapture scope would be prohibitively expensive, and setting up our own 76 seat program would be twice the cost of current regional lift. Again, it's better to get a hard cap on RJ numbers, a ratio that favors mainline in domestic flying vs DCI, and improve other scope that could be even more dangerous to all of our careers.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

GenLee sellout- happy memorial day- ill get to you when I'm done with our 4th scotch- one for each passed family member who served-
Amazing you admit so freely your sellout ways- but now is not the time-

Have a good holiday tomorrow and fly safe if you're working- to all who served-
Thank you for that service.

 

[General Lee]

GenLee sellout- happy memorial day- ill get to you when I'm done with our 4th scotch- one for each passed family member who served-
Amazing you admit so freely your sellout ways- but now is not the time-

Have a good holiday tomorrow and fly safe if you're working- to all who served-
Thank you for that service.

Easy on the scotch Wave, you are already sounding drunk. I am not selling out, rather being practical with what our industry is doing today, and ensuring less total RJs, giving a hard ratio that favors mainline vs DCI, ensures growth thanks to your 717s being tied to any new 76 seaters, and finally tightening other scope that you are familiar with, INTL scope and AK scope.

If you want to talk about selling out, look at your policy about having a type rating to get hired off the street. 90% of your newhires off the street have to pay $8000 or more to qualify. That is selling out the entire industry, telling management that that ridiculous policy is OK. No, no it's not. Then you guys hosed the AirTran guys. Drink another scotch and then defend those two actions. Have a good Memorial Day.


Bye Bye---General Lee