Spirit Questions

[huncowboy]

ok guys, just hired at spirit - where do you guys see the company in 5 years? What bases? Where are they going to expand? Do you see them buying a company like frontier? Do you see them being bought?

Congrats!

Though to say where we will be in 5. We can only guess. High oil hurts us maybe even more than the rest of the players. So far they were able to keep up with creative charges and marketing but oil will definitely be a huge factor for the future. Also the new rules about disclosing full prices may be a problem for us.

Apart of the above, the company has been fairly accurate for the past 2 years about growth predictions. In 5 years we should be around 80 a/c. We are half of that right now.

LAS opened, ORD did not, and DFW is the next rumor as far as bases. But DFW is really just a line rumor. Both LAS and ORD is a success, and so is DFW so until the FLL construction is not done, I would expect more domestic flying out of those places, and also some flying into Mexico. Eventually FLL will get more South American flying once we have space there.

As far as buying or being bought. Spirit is always looking for deals. So buying someone could be on the table if they get a dirt cheap deal. But I just don't see that with Frontier. I guess we would bid for them but we would be the lowest bidder like it was the case with the LGA slots. We will simply not pay fair value. We are so small that there are very many places where we can go without running into major competition even with 3x the size we have now. I.e. in Vegas. We only have 20 or so daily departures. Tiny still.

I doubt we are a target for a buyout. Two thing must be true before that happens. 1. you should be cheap. 2. you need to fit in with your market and cost structure into the buyer's operation. Or in some cases you have to present some unique value like JB's JFK presence, etc. We are not cheap right now. At a market cap of around 1 bill we are not a good deal. For most airlines we do not fit. If you can't operate at our cost then no need to fly to Columbia offering $500 per leg tickets. It will not work.

The big players are very busy making big deals. Buying Spirit is a small deal when you read US Air trying to buy AA or SW merging with Tranny. There is still JB and Alaska there. Nobody cares about us.

That is my guess anyways. It will be interesting to re read this in 5 years.

 

[ROSWELL41]

I would say in five years, both ORD and DFW could become bases. There are a lot of airplanes coming and they are not all going to FLL with the construction there. This industry is so dynamic, where Spirit grows could be because of some other company's reductions. What we do know is that LAS will be the growth vehicle for 2012.

 

[bri5150]

Congrats!

Though to say where we will be in 5. We can only guess. High oil hurts us maybe even more than the rest of the players. So far they were able to keep up with creative charges and marketing but oil will definitely be a huge factor for the future. Also the new rules about disclosing full prices may be a problem for us.

Apart of the above, the company has been fairly accurate for the past 2 years about growth predictions. In 5 years we should be around 80 a/c. We are half of that right now.

LAS opened, ORD did not, and DFW is the next rumor as far as bases. But DFW is really just a line rumor. Both LAS and ORD is a success, and so is DFW so until the FLL construction is not done, I would expect more domestic flying out of those places, and also some flying into Mexico. Eventually FLL will get more South American flying once we have space there.

As far as buying or being bought. Spirit is always looking for deals. So buying someone could be on the table if they get a dirt cheap deal. But I just don't see that with Frontier. I guess we would bid for them but we would be the lowest bidder like it was the case with the LGA slots. We will simply not pay fair value. We are so small that there are very many places where we can go without running into major competition even with 3x the size we have now. I.e. in Vegas. We only have 20 or so daily departures. Tiny still.

I doubt we are a target for a buyout. Two thing must be true before that happens. 1. you should be cheap. 2. you need to fit in with your market and cost structure into the buyer's operation. Or in some cases you have to present some unique value like JB's JFK presence, etc. We are not cheap right now. At a market cap of around 1 bill we are not a good deal. For most airlines we do not fit. If you can't operate at our cost then no need to fly to Columbia offering $500 per leg tickets. It will not work.

The big players are very busy making big deals. Buying Spirit is a small deal when you read US Air trying to buy AA or SW merging with Tranny. There is still JB and Alaska there. Nobody cares about us.

That is my guess anyways. It will be interesting to re read this in 5 years.

Great insight. Thanks for the post.

 

[i fly boxes]

could you guys see spirit doing a lot of 60 crew bases besides fll? DTW is 60, las is going to be 60, maybe dfw and ord become 60? there is nothing that says you cant have a base in both dtw and ord especially with the length of flights done out of those places, a lot of out and back trips that are 2:30 plus. I was very intrigued by the amount of midwest people they hired in my interview class.

 

[i fly boxes]

Would someone be willing to tell me what their paychecks look like for year one and two pay? Basically just gaurantee.
Thanks

 

[troll565]

Would someone be willing to tell me what their paychecks look like for year one and two pay? Basically just gaurantee.
Thanks

$39 x 72


$67 x 72

 

[huncowboy]

Maybe yours was 72h.

If you live in base and are willing to call in available you can easily average above 100 per hour. Past years I was way above 100 on average while I took a 5 week vacation as well. But I was senior which helped with the transition. Two of my my junior buds did well above 100h avg on their 2nd year. First year is harder. But even if you commute you will get more than 72. Unless you drop stuff. But than you get the days off.

I just compared numbers with another friend who did most of the year (like 10-11 months) on 1st year pay and he did $50k. And he wasn't trying very hard.

It is a grooving place. There is plenty of flying if you are willing to pick up the phone and if you are in a position to work. I.e. not commuting.

 

[Flyer1015]

Can you guys pick up trips on days off with a reserve line (while on reserve basically)?

 

[ROSWELL41]

Can you guys pick up trips on days off with a reserve line (while on reserve basically)?

No. You cannot. Prohibited by the CBA.

 

[Flyer1015]

So on reserve, you get 72 hrs unless you block more hours than 72? No way to make up some money on a reserve line?