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Southwest Wannabe...

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crjdude said:
Anyone think Southwest will need to hire within the next 5 years?

crjdude
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I would think that we'd have to wait until after we've transitioned all the AirTran guys first, but who really knows. There's always rumors; in fact recently, I heard that we would hire up to 400 off the street before the end of this year. Not sure I believe that one, but you never know.

Bubba

P.S. If you really want to be a Southwest guy someday, start practicing taxiing really fast now; you wouldn't want to disappoint Dan Roman! :)
 
Phlintstone said:
Unless there is a lot of growth...no.

Phred
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Yep, what Phred said. But, the Wright Amendment ends in October of 2014 and Southwest is scheduled to break ground on the international terminal at Hobby in September with the first flights anticipated in 2015. Southwest is fully funding the five-gate international terminal at an estimated cost of $156 million so I would not be surprised to see at least some growth in order to realize a return on that investment. So, growth in the very short term is not entirely realistic, but growth between now and 2018 is certainly plausible.
 
crjdude said:
Anyone think Southwest will need to hire within the next 5 years?

crjdude
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If SWA does not hire between now and August of 2018, age 65 retirements will trim the SWA seniority list to just under 7,100. When you factor in some guys leaving for the legacies and FedEx and the occasional guy getting fired for a lapse in judgement skills, there would probably be less than 7,000 pilots on the list. So unless you feel SWA will be trimming there system block hours about 10% over the next 5 years, there will be new hires at SWA.
 
2015 will be the telling year- 5 different initiatives, including air tran, should be complete and matured
Until then, explore the other options you'd be happy with
 
maxblast72 said:
If SWA does not hire between now and August of 2018, age 65 retirements will trim the SWA seniority list to just under 7,100. When you factor in some guys leaving for the legacies and FedEx and the occasional guy getting fired for a lapse in judgement skills, there would probably be less than 7,000 pilots on the list. So unless you feel SWA will be trimming there system block hours about 10% over the next 5 years, there will be new hires at SWA.
Click to expand...

That's if we shrink. I think their will be new hires in 2015 to help offset the retirements.
 
crjdude said:
Anyone think Southwest will need to hire within the next 5 years?

crjdude
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Yes. The bottom third will apply to the legacies because they will see very little movement for YEARS. The senior AT pilots aren't that old, and when they eventually upgrade they will stick around for years. Very few scheduled retirements (compared to the legacies) in the next decade. Throw in one airplane type, with one retirement equalling one upgrade and one new hire vs 1 widebody retirement at a Legacy causing multiple upgrades (up to 8 or 9 upward movements), and stagnation may be the new norm over there. If the bottom third do choose to leave, you may move up from bottom to about 1/3 up the list, and there you may stay for a decade or more, flying to Midland, Islip, and you guessed it, Lubbock. Other than the remaining AT guys not feeling the " LUV", I bet it might be a great place to be, compared to VA and Great Lakes anyway. Good luck!



Bye Bye---General Lee
 
Bake said:
120 will be hired off the street in 2014. You heard it here first.

Bake
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Replacing the 120 running to the legacies.


Bye Bye---General Lee
 
General Lee said:
Yes. The bottom third will apply to the legacies because they will see very little movement for YEARS. The senior AT pilots aren't that old, and when they eventually upgrade they will stick around for years. Very few scheduled retirements (compared to the legacies) in the next decade.
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When looking at the numbers from 2013-2020 (the first 8 full years of age 65 retirements), Delta retires approximately 20% of their pilot group while Southwest retires approximately 16% of their pilot group (18% of the pre-merger SWA pilot group and 9% of the pre-merger AirTran pilot group).


General Lee said:
Throw in one airplane type, with one retirement equalling one upgrade and one new hire vs 1 widebody retirement at a Legacy causing multiple upgrades (up to 8 or 9 upward movements).
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Once Delta does get into their heavy retirements in 2018 and beyond, Delta's pilot costs will increase dramatically as 10-15% of Delta's pilots will be in the schoolhouse transitioning between aircraft types while 99% of Southwest's pilots will be flying the line at any given point in time. Airline profitability and balance sheet strength are directly proportional to the amount of money an airline afford can pay their pilot group every year (and steer clear of the bankruptcy courts).
 
Everyone knows that if you want a job at SWA you don't apply at SWA. The interview is a nightmare, higher power type rating is expensive, and it could take multiple attempts to get the job.
 
Outside chance at hiring in 2014.

Definitely in 2015. If we have guys that are going to be happier somewhere else, I'm all for them making the move. To each their own.
 
redflyer65 said:
Outside chance at hiring in 2014.

Definitely in 2015. If we have guys that are going to be happier somewhere else, I'm all for them making the move. To each their own.
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If a lot of people leave, those "buy your 737 type rating" places are gonna LUV it. Too bad that still happens. It's a shame, most airlines pay for newhire initial training, including any type ratings needed. Maybe that policy will change someday. Hmmmm.


Bye Bye---General Lee
 
It will never change. If you want to work at SWA you will pay for your initial training. You even have to pay for the hotel now. and your food, and your clothes. and your car insurance. Heck, if you want to park in front of the training center they charge you 5 bucks a day. Who woulda thunk it??? Oh yeah, and your kids are your responsibility. I wished I worked at alley Giant so I could get all that for free.
 
General Lee said:
If a lot of people leave, those "buy your 737 type rating" places are gonna LUV it. Too bad that still happens. It's a shame, most airlines pay for newhire initial training, including any type ratings needed. Maybe that policy will change someday. Hmmmm.


Bye Bye---General Lee
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Seriously....why do you care. Aren't you happy where you are?

There are plenty of airlines that pay for little to NO training assistance.

I interviewed without the type Gen. Paid it back after taking the federal deduction in the first month. Best choice I ever made. I'm sure glad we don't have tools like you working at SW. I wouldn't be able to deal with the constant arrogance.
 
Airtran Flica letter just came out. All Airtran pilots will get 737 type ratings as they transition. Pilots already over will go for type ratings January 2015.
 
Flat answer to the question NO. Block hours will be reduced as the fleet shrinks to 650ish airplanes with no change in ASM capacity and the schedule is aggressively optimized. Much higher odds of a furlough than hiring.
 
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GhettoBeechjet said:
Flat answer to the question NO. Block hours will be reduced as the fleet shrinks to 650ish airplanes with no change in ASM capacity and the schedule is aggressively optimized. Much higher odds of a furlough than hiring.
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Dude, not with the "furlough" crap again. If you really believe this, why don't you take my bet? It's a win-win for you. Chickensh1t? Is that it?

Bubba
 
General Lee said:
If a lot of people leave, those "buy your 737 type rating" places are gonna LUV it. Too bad that still happens. It's a shame, most airlines pay for newhire initial training, including any type ratings needed. Maybe that policy will change someday. Hmmmm.


Bye Bye---General Lee
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Last I checked DAL won't pay lodging or much else to new hires, glass houses... throwing stones?
 
SIG600 said:
Last I checked DAL won't pay lodging or much else to new hires, glass houses... throwing stones?
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Uhhhhh, I think the first two weeks are paid for lodging wise, you get a pay check every two weeks, and if you are doing sims in other cities (ATL sims full), then you get full per diem and hotel paid for. Why is that significant? I believe AT 717 sims (owned by Boeing now?) are being moved to MIA, and plenty of newhires will be going to the 88 717s coming. Sound good yet? Newhire pay now is $66 an hour I think according to APC, it will go to $71 an hour a year from this upcoming January 1st, and you don't have to pay for a type.

What is SWA newhire pay? Sorry, no newhires over there unless pilots bail for the legacies. Try to compare Sig. You actually really can't debate. You lose.


Bye Bye---General Lee
 
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SWA Bubba said:
Dude, not with the "furlough" crap again. If you really believe this, why don't you take my bet? It's a win-win for you. Chickensh1t? Is that it?

Bubba
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I won't take your bet because I think a furlough is more probable than hiring but not a certainty. If we end up 300 pilots overstaffed we probably won't furlough. If we end up 600 pilots overstaffed we probably will. I imagine they will use this as leverage either during sec 6 or to try and get contract concessions after sec 6.
 
GhettoBeechjet said:
I won't take your bet because I think a furlough is more probable than hiring but not a certainty. If we end up 300 pilots overstaffed we probably won't furlough. If we end up 600 pilots overstaffed we probably will. I imagine they will use this as leverage either during sec 6 or to try and get contract concessions after sec 6.
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600 over staffed, still no furlough. We are at that level now with no furlough.

When we hit 1000 of us sitting around, as GK hems and haws about waiting to buy the MAX instead of leasing older 737's, then we might get close to talking selective reduction in guarantee to keep the peace. Say 55-65hr min. If not, then furlough. I suspect nothing till everyone is at min guarantee year-round and getting the little green bar pay. GK must show he tried to make a deal with the pilots who wouldn't help out, before he pulls the plug. And once pulled, is always on his shoulders.
 
scoreboardII said:
600 over staffed, still no furlough. We are at that level now with no furlough.

When we hit 1000 of us sitting around, as GK hems and haws about waiting to buy the MAX instead of leasing older 737's, then we might get close to talking selective reduction in guarantee to keep the peace. Say 55-65hr min. If not, then furlough. I suspect nothing till everyone is at min guarantee year-round and getting the little green bar pay. GK must show he tried to make a deal with the pilots who wouldn't help out, before he pulls the plug. And once pulled, is always on his shoulders.
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That doesn't sound fun. On the flip side, all 3 legacies will be retiring about 15,000 pilots total over the next decade. That means rapid movement upward if you get on within the first couple of years of major hiring. There is a one year seat hold on the initial plane you are awarded at DL, and then you are free to bid bigger, or stay on equipment and get senior. Options are good, and I believe many at certain LCCs will be looking at all 3 legacies for something different with less stagnation. Good luck!


Bye Bye---General Lee
 

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