SKYBUS Countdown to Cha.11

[Fins Up]

Is it just coincidence that JetBlue announces they're pulling out of CMH on the same day?
http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/business/stories/2007/10/23/jetblue.html

We are discontnuing CMH and BNA. Those routes were weak all along. Does the shame train fly to BNA. Their presence had little if anything to do us dropping those routes.

 

[Headfake14]

I was gonna say something like that. You beat me to it.


I'll miss that brkfst buffett and omlet station

 

[jaybird]

finsup,





for all the mudslinging, they type you from the start and left seat qual you. so what is the risk? an airbus type and left seat jet PIC within a year and chance to make a huge windfall should the options sell at the price they forecast of 68 to 78 a share.

your insane. where do you come up with these numbers? if you said .68 a share i'd believe you. you've been fed too much kool aid!

 

[climbhappy]

i'm insane for relaying what i heard :
at that price the stock would be trading at 25 times earnings per share. that is called a P/E multiple. 10 to 20 is a conservative or even referred to as an undervalued P?E multiple. many stocks on nasdaq and the big board will trade at 50 to 70 times earnings. they're over valued.
if the company hits its numbers( and they don't have to publish them until after they go public, then they project (I'm sure with the blesssing of investment bankers) that 25 X earnings would be realistic.

these aren't my numbers nor are they guaranteed.

there is risk with everything, try marriage and you'll understand risk alot better.

 

[ICAO]

First thing they learn at SKYBUS

How to drink all that KOOL AID that management puts out. That whole operation sucks.

 

[Limeyflyer]

I want Oct 13th 2008, would make a nice Birthday present for me

 

[Capn Lucky]

i'm insane for relaying what i heard :
at that price the stock would be trading at 25 times earnings per share. that is called a P/E multiple. 10 to 20 is a conservative or even referred to as an undervalued P?E multiple. many stocks on nasdaq and the big board will trade at 50 to 70 times earnings. they're over valued.
if the company hits its numbers( and they don't have to publish them until after they go public, then they project (I'm sure with the blesssing of investment bankers) that 25 X earnings would be realistic.

these aren't my numbers nor are they guaranteed.

there is risk with everything, try marriage and you'll understand risk alot better.

Airline PE's are typically alot higher than that. Also, look at airline stocks in the past few months. Institutions are starting to buy then again. IF Skybus goes public, exercise those options very quickly.

 

[Buddro]

Airline PE's are typically alot higher than that. Also, look at airline stocks in the past few months. Institutions are starting to buy then again. IF Skybus goes public, exercise those options very quickly.

Oh that's right you can't exercise the options....what's that vesting schedule again?

 

[USMC319]

finsup,
for all the mudslinging, they type you from the start and left seat qual you. so what is the risk? an airbus type and left seat jet PIC within a year and chance to make a huge windfall should the options sell at the price they forecast of 68 to 78 a share.

The primary falacy with Skybus aping the Ryanair model in the US is that it won't work here. Different time, differnt place, and different travel habits of the population. BTW if Skybus stock is ever sold publicly at $68 to $70 per share, I will eat my hat.

 

[climbhappy]

USMC319

help me with differnet time, differnt travel habits etc.

their load factors out of GSO are 90 % . in fact, GSO airport authority announced today, ( I live in the triad) that they're spending 52 million on improvements now that skybus is coming to town.

they are going to fly to LAX out of GSO so the story went.

here's the other cities according to the paper:
gulfport, ft lauderale, jacksonville, fl; hartford, conn
boston, columbus, and ft myers.

 

[Midnight Flyer]

oh the naysayers... i don't work there, but the company is being run a former southwest guy, 25 years. they have a 160 mil in wall street cash, firm orders for 65 planes and full airplanes.

fly I failed because kerry skeen was a dumbhead who made his business plan based on 30/barrel oil.

they can make money at 110.00 / barrel.

they're here to stay, and pilots that don't understand simple economics can talk smack all they want.

Simple economics? You're right. Any airline can make money if they pay their workers substandard wages.

I was walking to my gate the other day and heard an airport announcement for the "Skybus agent please go to your ticket counter". Aparantly there was a group of angry passengers that had been waiting for a while. They're grossly understaffed and have no customer service.

I don't sympathize with the angry or frustrated passengers. They pay only $10 for a ticket, then turn around and complain when they get crappy service.
These cheap a-- passengers need to realize they can't have it both ways.

 

[USMC319]

help me with different time, different travel habits etc.
quote]

If you spend any time in Europe you will find the vast majority of people use public transportation and are accustom to cheap no frills mass transit (different place). Ryanair took advantage of this and tapped a market that did not exist in the European airline industry. Subsequently many airlines have tried to emulate that model and have saturated the market, leaving a new entrant very little chance of success (different time).

In the USA (home of the SUV in every garage), the general public is used to service oriented travel. They expect everything for nothing. Thirty some years ago SWA built a business model that promised very little other than a friendly experience, low fare, that ran on-time and they always delivered on that promise. If a new entrant tried to emulate SWA today they probably wouldn't last a year, therefore the only successful LLCs are the hybreds offering many frills AND low fares, which establishes a loyal following.

My observation is that Skybus is offering no frills, no service, and low priced fares that can't possibly meet costs regardless of load factor.

Hey, good luck with it. I'm not wishing ill on anyone. It just doesn't make sense to me and everyone else from the sounds of it.

 

[climbhappy]

USMC319,
one point i agree with is americans have been "trained to complain" the retail industry has forced businesses to deliver or go out of business. we're also fickle. one example is the plight of krispy kreme donuts. have a bud who is a millionaire since he got in before they went public. have a current friend who manages U.S. operations and he is trying to figure out how to make chicken salad out of chicken $hip. their stock is in the toilet and stores close etc.
right now one would have to say the jury is out on skybus or time will tell. they seem to be good at stimulating demand, but if they can't manage the simplest task they're screwed. i don't like the fact they don't use jetways. the deplaning looks like an evac and it takes the ground crew as long to push these giant gangwalks in place as it does to drive the jetway.
one misperception here is that there are only "10" $10 tickets per flight. the price goes as the day approaches. the last seat sells for $390.00 i was told.
i see how they can make money per segment. many seats sell for $165.
usually when the economy tanks, the first ones affected are low income. if their model is good at only attracting those who otherwise would not fly or all "wal martized" ; then a precipitous dropoff in flight revenue would only delay, or thwart the whole plan to put 65 or more planes in ops at ten different focus cities. if they can get to critical mass they may get more bold at going into to bigger airports, maybe some class "b".

flysafe!

 

[Fins Up]

one misperception here is that there are only "10" $10 tickets per flight. the price goes as the day approaches. the last seat sells for $390.00 i was told.
i see how they can make money per segment. many seats sell for $165.

They are only required to sell 10 tickets for the price of $10. After those 10, they can charge whatever they want. At the end, once all the $10, $100, and $400 tickets are sold, the average price probably comes out not much different that anyone else. The thing is that regardless of what price you pay, you're getting very litle legroom, being charged for a coke/snacks/baggage check, can't bring an apple on to eat unless you "bring enough for everyone" and fly to cities that are a bit of a drive from where they are advertised (according to mapquest, Pease Int'l is about an hour from Boston, Bellingham is about an hour and a half from Seattle, St. Augustine is an hour from Daytona Beach, etc). I'm surprised they get away with advertising these cities this way.

 

[troll565]

They are only required to sell 10 tickets for the price of $10. After those 10, they can charge whatever they want.

I thought it was 10% of the number of seats on the aircraft, not 10 seats