SKYBUS Countdown to Cha.11

[xpdriver]

June 2008

 

[Kharma Police]

June 2008

I'll be sure and mark it on my calendar. The prize will be a bunch of 121 qualed Airbus pilots flooding the airline applicant pool.

 

[HalinTexas]

I would guess they would try and make it through the summer.

If you look at airline history, they tend to file at the end of the third quarter. Summer is a the peak season, so they can bank some cash to make BK cheaper.

I'd guess they'll file in April or October of any particular year, maybe not next year.

 

[B727Driver]

They 'bus qualified 'flight managers' will go straight to VA. My guess CH 11. is after summer, more time for the boys up top to stash cash, then run.

 

[FLYfishin]

January 6th, 2009. The anniversary of FLYi's death.

 

[Heavy Set]

The "Shame train" Skybus will be dead in October, 2008.

 

[ICAO]

Nickel and Dime Operation...wont last..

They are ALREADY stopping some of their flight into destination cities....wait until Winter Ops start...they dont have a clue whats coming...Management sucks, location CMH sucks, cant find enough pilots for that cheap a$$ pay and benefits...O yes..you get stocks...Whats the barrel of oil now..over $90...you will never see a IPO...its all lies. They will always be a nickel and dime operation..nothing more.

 

[GOULET!]

March 2009. They have enough cash reserves to last a little while. I doubt they have trouble finding people to fill their classes....there are always people whoreing themselves out for low wages.

 

[climbhappy]

oh the naysayers... i don't work there, but the company is being run a former southwest guy, 25 years. they have a 160 mil in wall street cash, firm orders for 65 planes and full airplanes.

fly I failed because kerry skeen was a dumbhead who made his business plan based on 30/barrel oil.

they can make money at 110.00 / barrel.

they're here to stay, and pilots that don't understand simple economics can talk smack all they want.

 

[Fins Up]

they can make money at 110.00 / barrel.
quote]

How exactly is this happening? I haven't seen any numbers so I'm just asking. Are they really suckering that many pax who think they'll get a $10 ticket to "Boston"?

 

[Flywrite]

I bet you guys made a fortune shorting stocks when USAir, UAL, and DAL all went into CH11. I wish I had one of those crystal balls.

 

[ICAO]

Skybus sucks

They are telling everyone they have all this money...Have you seen ANYTHING on paper..its all cheap talk like everthing else they told the pilots from the start. They will make money on $110.00 barrel....think you before you write friends....they are loosing money as you talk.

 

[bgaviator]

Is it just coincidence that JetBlue announces they're pulling out of CMH on the same day?
http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/business/stories/2007/10/23/jetblue.html

 

[ICAO]

Show me the money...

Skybus is soooo desperate for cities that have no true airline services..Skybus will only sleep with cities that give them free money, free buildings,etc for their sleazy services...They will suck the life out of the city...and then, when the money is finished..sooo is Skybus...wait and see..they will leave in a heart beat..these cities dont even have true loads for the airbus..non of these routes will ever make money...RJ cant even fill the seats...Skybus will....its a JOKE.

 

[climbhappy]

finsup,

from what i heard, they have a model based on ryanair. it is on their website. ryanair stimulates otherwise untapped demand by offering cheap or free tickets. ryanoar says according to skybus that they gave away over 250,000 free seats last year, or maybe in the last few years.

for the sake of discussion, they offer 10 seats at 10 dollars. the last seat on the plane the day of departure is $390.00. the price goes as the departure day for each draws near. the aggregate amount they collect would be fairliy consistent with 100 to 150 for each segment. what is the cliche, there is no free lunch.

as far as cities, jetblue,flyi(when they existed) and others have realized that the yield on transcon isn't as good as short haul. their turns are all 25 minutes.
they open both doors front and rear. passengers deplane like an evac. the key to their model is utilization. they say they their planes fly around 15 hours of block a day. 20 percent more than industry.
this mirrors what ryan air does.

for all the mudslinging, they type you from the start and left seat qual you. so what is the risk? an airbus type and left seat jet PIC within a year and chance to make a huge windfall should the options sell at the price they forecast of 68 to 78 a share.

compensating people in startups with a combo of salary and stock when it goes public has only been done a few thousands times in the last few years. many millionaires made form tech startups.

you'd think the mere mention of paying pilots in this manner would not spark an upheavel the likes of which remind me of the salem witch trials

 

[Fins Up]

Is it just coincidence that JetBlue announces they're pulling out of CMH on the same day?
http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/business/stories/2007/10/23/jetblue.html

We are discontnuing CMH and BNA. Those routes were weak all along. Does the shame train fly to BNA. Their presence had little if anything to do us dropping those routes.

 

[Headfake14]

I was gonna say something like that. You beat me to it.


I'll miss that brkfst buffett and omlet station

 

[jaybird]

finsup,





for all the mudslinging, they type you from the start and left seat qual you. so what is the risk? an airbus type and left seat jet PIC within a year and chance to make a huge windfall should the options sell at the price they forecast of 68 to 78 a share.

your insane. where do you come up with these numbers? if you said .68 a share i'd believe you. you've been fed too much kool aid!

 

[climbhappy]

i'm insane for relaying what i heard :
at that price the stock would be trading at 25 times earnings per share. that is called a P/E multiple. 10 to 20 is a conservative or even referred to as an undervalued P?E multiple. many stocks on nasdaq and the big board will trade at 50 to 70 times earnings. they're over valued.
if the company hits its numbers( and they don't have to publish them until after they go public, then they project (I'm sure with the blesssing of investment bankers) that 25 X earnings would be realistic.

these aren't my numbers nor are they guaranteed.

there is risk with everything, try marriage and you'll understand risk alot better.

 

[ICAO]

First thing they learn at SKYBUS

How to drink all that KOOL AID that management puts out. That whole operation sucks.

 

[Limeyflyer]

I want Oct 13th 2008, would make a nice Birthday present for me

 

[Capn Lucky]

i'm insane for relaying what i heard :
at that price the stock would be trading at 25 times earnings per share. that is called a P/E multiple. 10 to 20 is a conservative or even referred to as an undervalued P?E multiple. many stocks on nasdaq and the big board will trade at 50 to 70 times earnings. they're over valued.
if the company hits its numbers( and they don't have to publish them until after they go public, then they project (I'm sure with the blesssing of investment bankers) that 25 X earnings would be realistic.

these aren't my numbers nor are they guaranteed.

there is risk with everything, try marriage and you'll understand risk alot better.

Airline PE's are typically alot higher than that. Also, look at airline stocks in the past few months. Institutions are starting to buy then again. IF Skybus goes public, exercise those options very quickly.

 

[Buddro]

Airline PE's are typically alot higher than that. Also, look at airline stocks in the past few months. Institutions are starting to buy then again. IF Skybus goes public, exercise those options very quickly.

Oh that's right you can't exercise the options....what's that vesting schedule again?

 

[USMC319]

finsup,
for all the mudslinging, they type you from the start and left seat qual you. so what is the risk? an airbus type and left seat jet PIC within a year and chance to make a huge windfall should the options sell at the price they forecast of 68 to 78 a share.

The primary falacy with Skybus aping the Ryanair model in the US is that it won't work here. Different time, differnt place, and different travel habits of the population. BTW if Skybus stock is ever sold publicly at $68 to $70 per share, I will eat my hat.

 

[climbhappy]

USMC319

help me with differnet time, differnt travel habits etc.

their load factors out of GSO are 90 % . in fact, GSO airport authority announced today, ( I live in the triad) that they're spending 52 million on improvements now that skybus is coming to town.

they are going to fly to LAX out of GSO so the story went.

here's the other cities according to the paper:
gulfport, ft lauderale, jacksonville, fl; hartford, conn
boston, columbus, and ft myers.

 

[Midnight Flyer]

oh the naysayers... i don't work there, but the company is being run a former southwest guy, 25 years. they have a 160 mil in wall street cash, firm orders for 65 planes and full airplanes.

fly I failed because kerry skeen was a dumbhead who made his business plan based on 30/barrel oil.

they can make money at 110.00 / barrel.

they're here to stay, and pilots that don't understand simple economics can talk smack all they want.

Simple economics? You're right. Any airline can make money if they pay their workers substandard wages.

I was walking to my gate the other day and heard an airport announcement for the "Skybus agent please go to your ticket counter". Aparantly there was a group of angry passengers that had been waiting for a while. They're grossly understaffed and have no customer service.

I don't sympathize with the angry or frustrated passengers. They pay only $10 for a ticket, then turn around and complain when they get crappy service.
These cheap a-- passengers need to realize they can't have it both ways.

 

[USMC319]

help me with different time, different travel habits etc.
quote]

If you spend any time in Europe you will find the vast majority of people use public transportation and are accustom to cheap no frills mass transit (different place). Ryanair took advantage of this and tapped a market that did not exist in the European airline industry. Subsequently many airlines have tried to emulate that model and have saturated the market, leaving a new entrant very little chance of success (different time).

In the USA (home of the SUV in every garage), the general public is used to service oriented travel. They expect everything for nothing. Thirty some years ago SWA built a business model that promised very little other than a friendly experience, low fare, that ran on-time and they always delivered on that promise. If a new entrant tried to emulate SWA today they probably wouldn't last a year, therefore the only successful LLCs are the hybreds offering many frills AND low fares, which establishes a loyal following.

My observation is that Skybus is offering no frills, no service, and low priced fares that can't possibly meet costs regardless of load factor.

Hey, good luck with it. I'm not wishing ill on anyone. It just doesn't make sense to me and everyone else from the sounds of it.

 

[climbhappy]

USMC319,
one point i agree with is americans have been "trained to complain" the retail industry has forced businesses to deliver or go out of business. we're also fickle. one example is the plight of krispy kreme donuts. have a bud who is a millionaire since he got in before they went public. have a current friend who manages U.S. operations and he is trying to figure out how to make chicken salad out of chicken $hip. their stock is in the toilet and stores close etc.
right now one would have to say the jury is out on skybus or time will tell. they seem to be good at stimulating demand, but if they can't manage the simplest task they're screwed. i don't like the fact they don't use jetways. the deplaning looks like an evac and it takes the ground crew as long to push these giant gangwalks in place as it does to drive the jetway.
one misperception here is that there are only "10" $10 tickets per flight. the price goes as the day approaches. the last seat sells for $390.00 i was told.
i see how they can make money per segment. many seats sell for $165.
usually when the economy tanks, the first ones affected are low income. if their model is good at only attracting those who otherwise would not fly or all "wal martized" ; then a precipitous dropoff in flight revenue would only delay, or thwart the whole plan to put 65 or more planes in ops at ten different focus cities. if they can get to critical mass they may get more bold at going into to bigger airports, maybe some class "b".

flysafe!

 

[Fins Up]

one misperception here is that there are only "10" $10 tickets per flight. the price goes as the day approaches. the last seat sells for $390.00 i was told.
i see how they can make money per segment. many seats sell for $165.

They are only required to sell 10 tickets for the price of $10. After those 10, they can charge whatever they want. At the end, once all the $10, $100, and $400 tickets are sold, the average price probably comes out not much different that anyone else. The thing is that regardless of what price you pay, you're getting very litle legroom, being charged for a coke/snacks/baggage check, can't bring an apple on to eat unless you "bring enough for everyone" and fly to cities that are a bit of a drive from where they are advertised (according to mapquest, Pease Int'l is about an hour from Boston, Bellingham is about an hour and a half from Seattle, St. Augustine is an hour from Daytona Beach, etc). I'm surprised they get away with advertising these cities this way.

 

[troll565]

They are only required to sell 10 tickets for the price of $10. After those 10, they can charge whatever they want.

I thought it was 10% of the number of seats on the aircraft, not 10 seats