SKW Inc's Plans Leaked?

[Clutch]

Pinnacle sucks

 

[i fly boxes]

Its true, I heard it from a recurrent ground instructor who heard it from the lead mechanic in MSP who heard it from God. I guess Pinnacle got approved for a massive loan in bankrputcy court to subsidize their chapter 11 exit.

 

[Erlanger]

Pinnacle sucks

We don't hear a lot of "Mesa sucks" anymore.

 

[79%N1]

We don't hear a lot of "Mesa sucks" anymore.

That's cause Rene straightened us all out!!!!

 

[JustaNumber]

Nothing more than a lot of wishful thinking on the part of Bombardier.

Reading comprehension, people! Certainly Bombardier is wishing they're the ones getting the order(s), but the big news here is the statement of these facts:

At least two banking insiders (not Bombardier) are on the record as saying that "SkyWest is seeking to replace a large portion of the 512 50-seat jets it operates." It also specifically refers to BOTH CRJs and Q400's, as well as the fact that ATR has a chance at some of the orders. They disclose that Skywest is looking to purchase 100-200 replacement airplanes, and they guess that half of these will come from Embraer. These insiders also see SKYW (NOT any other airline) as the biggest potential regional customer for Bombardier.

While Bombardier would certainly like the orders, the statements they have made are not wishful thinking; they are statements about who is in the marketplace right now.

What this means is that:

1) Because of the scope requirements in Delta's TA (i.e. no replacement 50 seater jets allowed, and there will be 70 76 seaters to be purchased), SKYW is anticipating capturing a very large number of these. It looks like Delta may purchase some of them to place at other various regionals, but the language in the article suggests that Skywest will have the lion's share. There was no mention of a potential "ENORMOUS" order from Delta or Pinnacle or others.

2) SKYW is planning on replacing CRJ200s with turboprops, probably Q400s.

3) Since, in one insider's opinion, there is a good chance that Embraer will capture half of Skywest's order, that implies that: a) Skywest may be adding E170's to its fleet, or b) Embraer has a large turboprop (click here) in the works, or c) the Brasilia is coming back!?!

Things are starting to make sense now. The Delta TA says about 200 CRJ200s are going away, but I just can't see Delta ending the hundreds of routes that the CRJ currently flies. Dothan and Chattanooga and Asheville will still need service; Delta just wants it done cheaper. So they rush the TA, telling the Delta pilots that, sure, 70 new 76 seaters will be allowed, but LOOK at all the 200's going away! They never SAID that DCI was shrinking, they are just letting the Delta pilots do the math and ASSUME that 70 minus 200 equals a negative number. In reality, the 200 CRJs are just getting replaced by 200 shiny new bigger turboprops, AND we're growing by 70 jets. So DCI is actually growing.

This really shouldn't change anything for the Delta pilots, though, because for some reason turboprops don't threaten their manhood.

My final thought: As far as I know, there is nothing to prevent most or ALL of these new planes from going to Skywest Airlines as opposed to Expressjet, or vice-versa. With this potential in mind, I would think that item number one on EV's contract wish-list should be some kind of scope to capture these airplanes. Ideally, I think we should push for ONE LIST, at least for the pilots. They don't even have to merge the airlines, but that would seem to be the most cost-effective thing they could do. I don't know why we were never asked if this was something we wanted to pursue; I think there are a large number of pilots, worried about job protection, who would be happy to make ONE LIST the number one priority.

 

[GogglesPisano]

Things are starting to make sense now. The Delta TA says about 200 CRJ200s are going away, but I just can't see Delta ending the hundreds of routes that the CRJ currently flies. Dothan and Chattanooga and Asheville will still need service; Delta just wants it done cheaper. So they rush the TA, telling the Delta pilots that, sure, 70 new 76 seaters will be allowed, but LOOK at all the 200's going away! They never SAID that DCI was shrinking, they are just letting the Delta pilots do the math and ASSUME that 70 minus 200 equals a negative number. In reality, the 200 CRJs are just getting replaced by 200 shiny new bigger turboprops, AND we're growing by 70 jets. So DCI is actually growing.

The TA now includes turboprop restrictions. There is no differentiation between a 50-seat jet and a 50-seat turboprop. There will not be '200 shiny new bigger turboprops," and DCI will not be "actually growing."

TA Limits
End state cap of 450 DCI aircraft
o Exception for propeller-driven or turboprop aircraft of up to 37 seats
and/or 37,000 lbs.
o Exception for Delta Private Jets of up to 19 seats and 65,000 lbs.
Five aircraft may weigh up to 99,900 lbs.
o Exception for up to nine aircraft operated under a prorate agreement with
Chautauqua Airlines or Shuttle America, seating capacity up to 44 seats
and less than 65,000 lbs.
End state cap of 125 50-seat aircraft of up to 65,000 lbs. based on ratio reduction
o Company plans to have 343 50-seat jet aircraft on July 1, 2012
o Under TA, reduction of 50-seat aircraft based on deliveries of new 76-seat
aircraft
o Zero future growth allowed
Immediate hard cap of 102 70-seat aircraft of up to 86,000 lbs.
o Zero future growth allowed
End state hard cap of 223 76-seat aircraft of up to 86,000 lbs.
o Existing weight exception for 36 Compass EMB-175 at 89,000 lbs. remains
o Requires 1.25 SNB in fleet for each 76-seat aircraft added above current
153 in fleet up to maximum of 223
o This is a reduction of 32 76-seat aircraft from current PWA limit (based on
the current 3:1 growth metric and up to 255 76-seat aircraft)
o The combined cap on 70 and 76-seat aircraft increases to 325 (102 70-seat +
223 76-seat)
o Eliminates 3:1 growth over 767 mainline aircraft up to 255
o Zero future growth allowed

 

[MoroniMetro]

I believe the Delta TA will not allow any other carrier (other than Republic who has Frontier, with planes larger than 76 seats) to have planes larger than 76 seats, even in a holding company. If a company would like to have planes larger than 76 seats, then I think they might lose the feed.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Oh G.L. how many times are you going to go down this path? Wide-body vs. Narrow-body, Wide-body wins and scope will be relaxed.

 

[JustaNumber]

Goggles,
Thanks for the additional details. So I guess if you put that together with the other info from the article, I would say the only things that make sense would be, either SKYW is counting on a large percentage of those 70 planes, and/or all the replacements will be on the United side.

 

[Maria]

I'm thinking Sky Inc will play Skywest off ExpressJet and vice versa, and whichever company bids lowest wins the aircraft from the holding company. As the CRJ200 airframes time out, the aircraft are eliminated without replacement.

If Delta's TA goes through, I expect Skywest will be furloughing in six months, Expressjet soon after. The only winners will be the lawyers and executives as they take their respective golden parachutes.

 

[N813CA]

Did I see that right that Sky west has 512 50 seater's? Ouch. I don't see how any company can recover from that.... Sorry. I loved the 8 years I flew it, but thats a lot. Good Luck. I seriously mean that.

 

[amcnd]

I'm thinking Sky Inc will play Skywest off ExpressJet and vice versa, and whichever company bids lowest wins the aircraft from the holding company. As the CRJ200 airframes time out, the aircraft are eliminated without replacement.

If Delta's TA goes through, I expect Skywest will be furloughing in six months, Expressjet soon after. The only winners will be the lawyers and executives as they take their respective golden parachutes.

6 months!!?? They have contracts to fly the 200's for a few more years... Plus the 200's don't go away until the 900's come...?? So they may stop hiring, let atrition handle some, and see what the numbers look like in 1-2 years. Not 6 months... Will SkyWest be in a pinch soon yes. But not for 2-4 years..

 

[777forever]

The TA now includes turboprop restrictions. There is no differentiation between a 50-seat jet and a 50-seat turboprop. There will not be '200 shiny new bigger turboprops," and DCI will not be "actually growing."

TA Limits
End state cap of 450 DCI aircraft
o Exception for propeller-driven or turboprop aircraft of up to 37 seats
and/or 37,000 lbs.
o Exception for Delta Private Jets of up to 19 seats and 65,000 lbs.
Five aircraft may weigh up to 99,900 lbs.
o Exception for up to nine aircraft operated under a prorate agreement with
Chautauqua Airlines or Shuttle America, seating capacity up to 44 seats
and less than 65,000 lbs.
End state cap of 125 50-seat aircraft of up to 65,000 lbs. based on ratio reduction
o Company plans to have 343 50-seat jet aircraft on July 1, 2012
o Under TA, reduction of 50-seat aircraft based on deliveries of new 76-seat
aircraft
o Zero future growth allowed
Immediate hard cap of 102 70-seat aircraft of up to 86,000 lbs.
o Zero future growth allowed
End state hard cap of 223 76-seat aircraft of up to 86,000 lbs.
o Existing weight exception for 36 Compass EMB-175 at 89,000 lbs. remains
o Requires 1.25 SNB in fleet for each 76-seat aircraft added above current
153 in fleet up to maximum of 223
o This is a reduction of 32 76-seat aircraft from current PWA limit (based on
the current 3:1 growth metric and up to 255 76-seat aircraft)
o The combined cap on 70 and 76-seat aircraft increases to 325 (102 70-seat +
223 76-seat)
o Eliminates 3:1 growth over 767 mainline aircraft up to 255
o Zero future growth allowed

DCI won't grow at all after this TA, but Skywest Inc will grow. I believe that Skywest will easily win the AMR 70+ seat flying when APA agrees to a new TA.

Also, if Delta pilots reject the TA, I believe RA's "Plan B" is to order the Q400 or ATR72-600 to replace the 50. I think Delta's current contract allows for unlimited turboprops. I just don't see Delta paying all that money for 50 seat engine overhauls just so they can continue losing money on them til 2020.

With UNICAL its already under contract with Expressjet to replace up to 75 50 seaters one for one with 70+ pending UNICAL JCBA so INC definitely has that on lock.

Heck their might even be a US Airways deal on the horizon with Skywest Airlines planting the initial seed in PHX with the 200s.

So when you look at potential contracts with DAL, UNICAL, AMR and Airways all around the same time, no wonder the Bombardier rep used the word "enormous"

I believe everyone is just waiting for the pilot contracts at DAL, UNICAL, and AMR to be done

 

[strega7]

Don't forget the potential for more Alaska flying in SEA and PDX.

 

[nerjdriver]

Reading comprehension, people! Certainly Bombardier is wishing they're the ones getting the order(s), but the big news here is the statement of these facts:

At least two banking insiders (not Bombardier) are on the record as saying that "SkyWest is seeking to replace a large portion of the 512 50-seat jets it operates." It also specifically refers to BOTH CRJs and Q400's, as well as the fact that ATR has a chance at some of the orders. They disclose that Skywest is looking to purchase 100-200 replacement airplanes, and they guess that half of these will come from Embraer. These insiders also see SKYW (NOT any other airline) as the biggest potential regional customer for Bombardier.

While Bombardier would certainly like the orders, the statements they have made are not wishful thinking; they are statements about who is in the marketplace right now.

What this means is that:

1) Because of the scope requirements in Delta's TA (i.e. no replacement 50 seater jets allowed, and there will be 70 76 seaters to be purchased), SKYW is anticipating capturing a very large number of these. It looks like Delta may purchase some of them to place at other various regionals, but the language in the article suggests that Skywest will have the lion's share. There was no mention of a potential "ENORMOUS" order from Delta or Pinnacle or others.

2) SKYW is planning on replacing CRJ200s with turboprops, probably Q400s.

3) Since, in one insider's opinion, there is a good chance that Embraer will capture half of Skywest's order, that implies that: a) Skywest may be adding E170's to its fleet, or b) Embraer has a large turboprop (click here) in the works, or c) the Brasilia is coming back!?!

Things are starting to make sense now. The Delta TA says about 200 CRJ200s are going away, but I just can't see Delta ending the hundreds of routes that the CRJ currently flies. Dothan and Chattanooga and Asheville will still need service; Delta just wants it done cheaper. So they rush the TA, telling the Delta pilots that, sure, 70 new 76 seaters will be allowed, but LOOK at all the 200's going away! They never SAID that DCI was shrinking, they are just letting the Delta pilots do the math and ASSUME that 70 minus 200 equals a negative number. In reality, the 200 CRJs are just getting replaced by 200 shiny new bigger turboprops, AND we're growing by 70 jets. So DCI is actually growing.

This really shouldn't change anything for the Delta pilots, though, because for some reason turboprops don't threaten their manhood.

My final thought: As far as I know, there is nothing to prevent most or ALL of these new planes from going to Skywest Airlines as opposed to Expressjet, or vice-versa. With this potential in mind, I would think that item number one on EV's contract wish-list should be some kind of scope to capture these airplanes. Ideally, I think we should push for ONE LIST, at least for the pilots. They don't even have to merge the airlines, but that would seem to be the most cost-effective thing they could do. I don't know why we were never asked if this was something we wanted to pursue; I think there are a large number of pilots, worried about job protection, who would be happy to make ONE LIST the number one priority.

The Transition and Process Agreement (TPA) specifically prevents SKYW from moving any legacy XJT flying to legacy ASA or to SKYW.

 

[Plainsman]

Unless they kept everything separate then transfer ac.

 

[XPOO]

The Transition and Process Agreement (TPA) specifically prevents SKYW from moving any legacy XJT flying to legacy ASA or to SKYW.

I'd think since those routes are United's and not ExpressJet's, they can give them to whomever they'd like to.

 

[Uncle Bunkle]

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

Sent by my laptop using my fingers and a keyboard, and I feel the need to tell the whole world that I own a laptop.

 

[Nevets]

Unless they kept everything separate then transfer ac.

They can transfer aircraft but on the first one that gets transferred, 10 pilots go with them, with seniority and longevity.

I'd think since those routes are United's and not ExpressJet's, they can give them to whomever they'd like to.

They can, but then they will be in violation of our contract.

 

[wms]

The contract is almost done and then the tpa will no longer apply. Also, the tpa includes a loophole for aircraft that are transferred through the the lessor. This was brought to light when aircraft were going to be transferred from Asa to skyw and we discovered our fragmentation policy was gutted in the PTA.

 

[Maria]

They can, but then they will be in violation of our contract.

Since when has a contract mattered to a major, especially to one dealing with XJT?

 

[aircombat]

They can transfer aircraft but on the first one that gets transferred, 10 pilots go with them, with seniority and longevity.



They can, but then they will be in violation of our contract.

Why do people think these contracts are written in stone? Didn't you guys have a scope clause that would require Inc to merge you with Skywest as well as ASA? ALPA does not look out for the interests of its junior members PERIOD

 

[Nevets]

The contract is almost done and then the tpa will no longer apply. Also, the tpa includes a loophole for aircraft that are transferred through the the lessor. This was brought to light when aircraft were going to be transferred from Asa to skyw and we discovered our fragmentation policy was gutted in the PTA.

The scope section is going to be part of the contract. The lessor for the ERJs is CAL. The TPA includes N#s. The intent is clear. The ASA fragmentation policy was improved because of their prior experience.

Since when has a contract mattered to a major, especially to one dealing with XJT?

I'm not talking about mainline. If management wants to change the terms of the CPA with mainline (for whatever reason), they can. But it might violate the TPA. That's all I'm saying.

Why do people think these contracts are written in stone? Didn't you guys have a scope clause that would require Inc to merge you with Skywest as well as ASA? ALPA does not look out for the interests of its junior members PERIOD

The MEC caved. They did get one concession (I don't think it was a concession in management's eye), they got a merger of two out of three airlines.

 

[XPOO]

They can, but then they will be in violation of our contract.

So, basically, you'd rather see those routes go to Mesa, Republic, TransStates, anyone but SkyWest? Yeah, right.

 

[wms]

The CRJ frag policy was gutted in the tpa, not improved.

 

[wms]

So, basically, you'd rather see those routes go to Mesa, Republic, TransStates, anyone but SkyWest? Yeah, right.

The company was going to transfer crjs from asa to skyw for phx, not honoring fragmentation (due to the lessor loophole) but offering pref hiring and resulting in furloughs. What would this have made skyw?

 

[Nevets]

So, basically, you'd rather see those routes go to Mesa, Republic, TransStates, anyone but SkyWest? Yeah, right.

Management can try to make a deal with the MECs of they want to. It's up to them on how they want to handle it. Do they want to test the contract? I don't know but it's certainly their call. Hopefully they treat their pilots with dignity and respect.

The CRJ frag policy was gutted in the tpa, not improved.

Ok, I understand what you are talking about now, aircraft whose CPA term is expiring. But that is not what was mentioned. We are talking about current aircraft operated in accordance with a CPA whose term has not expired yet.

 

[Tarzan]

The CRJ frag policy was gutted in the tpa, not improved.

Bother to explain how it was "gutted"?

Fact is, the fragmentation triggered on plane #1. The six planes that left had expired CPA's that had been extended. The planes were returned to the lessor leased back to SkyWest. How in the F*** is a union supposed to stop that?
What about the 8 700's that went to Blow-A-Goat Jet? CPA expired and away they went. But never mind, the MEC caved and the fragmentation policy was gutted.

Whatever. You probably haven't read it or compared to the old one where they could have bled us to death over a couple of years.

 

[wms]

The original language in the cba did not have an exclusion for the lessor. If the airplanes went to the lessor under the original cba some pilots could've gone to Skywest with their seniority. I've already been over this via other threads, union reps and a spineless mec that will not explain how this came about. The lessor was intentionally used as a loophole to transfer planes to Skywest without pilots, and this was possible because of the change in the language. .1F1 of the cba was amended to include the lessor in the tpa.

As far as gojets, the language was specific to aircraft transferred within Skywest, inc. so the clause would not have applied.

 

[CRJ puppy]

Sent by my laptop using my fingers and a keyboard, and I feel the need to tell the whole world that I own a laptop.

But WHAT kind of laptop?? We all need to know!

 

[DYLIN]

Also, if Delta pilots reject the TA, I believe RA's "Plan B" is to order the Q400 or ATR72-600 to replace the 50. I think Delta's current contract allows for unlimited turboprops. I just don't see Delta paying all that money for 50 seat engine overhauls just so they can continue losing money on them til 2020.

If their plan B was so radically different than plan A, they'd be doing it already.

You don't have a backup plan be a completely different philosophy. That's not what a backup plan is.