The TA now includes turboprop restrictions. There is no differentiation between a 50-seat jet and a 50-seat turboprop. There will not be '200 shiny new bigger turboprops," and DCI will not be "actually growing."
TA Limits
End state cap of 450 DCI aircraft
o Exception for propeller-driven or turboprop aircraft of up to 37 seats
and/or 37,000 lbs.
o Exception for Delta Private Jets of up to 19 seats and 65,000 lbs.
o Exception for up to nine aircraft operated under a prorate agreement with
Chautauqua Airlines or Shuttle America, seating capacity up to 44 seats
and less than 65,000 lbs.
o Company plans to have 343 50-seat jet aircraft on July 1, 2012
o Under TA, reduction of 50-seat aircraft based on deliveries of new 76-seat
aircraft
o Zero future growth allowed
o Zero future growth allowed
o Existing weight exception for 36 Compass EMB-175 at 89,000 lbs. remains
o Requires 1.25 SNB in fleet for each 76-seat aircraft added above current
153 in fleet up to maximum of 223
o This is a reduction of 32 76-seat aircraft from current PWA limit (based on
the current 3:1 growth metric and up to 255 76-seat aircraft)
o The combined cap on 70 and 76-seat aircraft increases to 325 (102 70-seat +
223 76-seat)
o Eliminates 3:1 growth over 767 mainline aircraft up to 255
o Zero future growth allowed
Reading comprehension, people! Certainly Bombardier is wishing they're the ones getting the order(s), but the big news here is the statement of these facts:
At least two banking insiders (not Bombardier) are on the record as saying that "SkyWest is seeking to replace a large portion of the 512 50-seat jets it operates." It also specifically refers to BOTH CRJs and Q400's, as well as the fact that ATR has a chance at some of the orders. They disclose that Skywest is looking to purchase 100-200 replacement airplanes, and they guess that half of these will come from Embraer. These insiders also see SKYW (NOT any other airline) as the biggest potential regional customer for Bombardier.
While Bombardier would certainly like the orders, the statements they have made are not wishful thinking; they are statements about who is in the marketplace right now.
What this means is that:
1) Because of the scope requirements in Delta's TA (i.e. no replacement 50 seater jets allowed, and there will be 70 76 seaters to be purchased), SKYW is anticipating capturing a very large number of these. It looks like Delta may purchase some of them to place at other various regionals, but the language in the article suggests that Skywest will have the lion's share. There was no mention of a potential "ENORMOUS" order from Delta or Pinnacle or others.
2) SKYW is planning on replacing CRJ200s with turboprops, probably Q400s.
3) Since, in one insider's opinion, there is a good chance that Embraer will capture half of Skywest's order, that implies that: a) Skywest may be adding E170's to its fleet, or b) Embraer has a large turboprop (click here) in the works, or c) the Brasilia is coming back!?!
Things are starting to make sense now. The Delta TA says about 200 CRJ200s are going away, but I just can't see Delta ending the hundreds of routes that the CRJ currently flies. Dothan and Chattanooga and Asheville will still need service; Delta just wants it done cheaper. So they rush the TA, telling the Delta pilots that, sure, 70 new 76 seaters will be allowed, but LOOK at all the 200's going away! They never SAID that DCI was shrinking, they are just letting the Delta pilots do the math and ASSUME that 70 minus 200 equals a negative number. In reality, the 200 CRJs are just getting replaced by 200 shiny new bigger turboprops, AND we're growing by 70 jets. So DCI is actually growing.
This really shouldn't change anything for the Delta pilots, though, because for some reason turboprops don't threaten their manhood.
My final thought: As far as I know, there is nothing to prevent most or ALL of these new planes from going to Skywest Airlines as opposed to Expressjet, or vice-versa. With this potential in mind, I would think that item number one on EV's contract wish-list should be some kind of scope to capture these airplanes. Ideally, I think we should push for ONE LIST, at least for the pilots. They don't even have to merge the airlines, but that would seem to be the most cost-effective thing they could do. I don't know why we were never asked if this was something we wanted to pursue; I think there are a large number of pilots, worried about job protection, who would be happy to make ONE LIST the number one priority.
