Young pilot group, no retirement bubble on the horizon. Upgrades will be the result of growth. If you figure the airline has to roughly double in size for a new hire to upgrade then you'd be looking at a 100-plane airline. I don't think you can necessarily bank on Allegiant to keep adding the 10 planes per year that even a 5-year upgrade would require so upgrades for new hires are probably 5+ years out, much longer if growth slows or stops 'cause of the lack of retirements. The 3-year upgrades are probably a thing of the past.
sound like a New York based airline of a certain colour...