Yes, I agree they are assumptions, but they are based on what I saw at my previous employer. Reserve was spread out over the bottom 25% or so of each seat rather than the bottom 10% here. AN example of why someone might bid reserve over a hard line is because they want weekends off. This is true for me. I will NOT EVER bid a relief line because of the chance of having to possibly work on the weekend. I prefer to bid reserve weekends off. Occasionally at ACA I would switch to "Will Fly" while on reserve at ACA. This way I could get the more productive trips (6:45 to 7:45 credit per day) and this would allow me to get my reserve bump up for the moth. I could have easily held a line with 14 days off but they may have had to work a couple weekend days during the month. (I am on a team sport and we either are training on the weekends or are participating in events, also my wife works late on the weekdays so the only quality time I get to spend with her is on the weekends.)
My assumption of there still being some movement is just based on the industry pulling out of the nose dive it is in. Majors and Nationals are picking up hiring more and more, slowly but surely. I worked in recruiting at a small major for a little while almost 7 years ago. It is just a matter a time before things pick up to 1 tenth of hiring that was going on at that time. I am not saying that people will be leaving in droves any time soon just that unless we actually start losing airplanes (which may happen too) there will still be some movement. Believe me 15-20 a month is MUCH better than nothing.
My assumption of there still being some movement is just based on the industry pulling out of the nose dive it is in. Majors and Nationals are picking up hiring more and more, slowly but surely. I worked in recruiting at a small major for a little while almost 7 years ago. It is just a matter a time before things pick up to 1 tenth of hiring that was going on at that time. I am not saying that people will be leaving in droves any time soon just that unless we actually start losing airplanes (which may happen too) there will still be some movement. Believe me 15-20 a month is MUCH better than nothing.
