REALLY BAD news for DCI XJ&9E

[Speedtape]

Who actually owns all the Pinnacle 200's in operation?

The answer to this question will explain alot and may be foretelling of the future.

 

[Flyer1015]

bri and Wsugumpi,

How many flowthroughs do you really think will go through? I spoke to a 42 yr old XJ pilot with 18 years service and he had no interest in moving on. He's gonna ride it out. IMO, the Delta flowthrough is gonna get wasted. Of the 100 or so flow spots, I would be surprised if even half take it.

So yes, lifers.

 

[bri5150]

bri and Wsugumpi,

How many flowthroughs do you really think will go through? I spoke to a 42 yr old XJ pilot with 18 years service and he had no interest in moving on. He's gonna ride it out. IMO, the Delta flowthrough is gonna get wasted. Of the 100 or so flow spots, I would be surprised if even half take it.

So yes, lifers.

Okay, even if that were true, that's only 50 lifers. As you go down more and more on the list, the less and less lifers there will be.

 

[mesaba13]

Flyer

From your vast experience (career 9E Fo) you know how many Mesaba pilots will elect to go? You are just one of those guys that always has all the answers.

I can tell you from looking at our actual seniority list that 80% have the box checked as "yes". The 14 remaining are either "n/a" or "No" . Some of these are working on the 4 year degree requirement and may say yes when they meet the requirement. Some of the guys that checked "no" will probably convert over to yes if this merger shows any signs of trouble.

 

[DoinTime]

About 200 at Mesaba, about 150 at Pinnacle, and 50 at Colgan (and I bet that is high). = 400. Now did a bunch of Pinnacle guys change their minds because of the new contract, who knows. But I know a few of the former lifers at Mesaba are no longer thanks to the merger, just as the bankruptcy chased some way before.

I think the number at PCL is closer to 300. I would bet the XJ number is greater than 200 too. I doubt the new contract (except for maybe the locked up job protections) changed anyone's minds at any of the carriers on whether they were going to stay or go. Especially if you have a time investment in already. If you are north of 10 years of service and in your 40's its going to be a tough gig to leave.

 

[WMUSIGPI]

bri and Wsugumpi,

How many flowthroughs do you really think will go through? I spoke to a 42 yr old XJ pilot with 18 years service and he had no interest in moving on. He's gonna ride it out. IMO, the Delta flowthrough is gonna get wasted. Of the 100 or so flow spots, I would be surprised if even half take it.

So yes, lifers.

Then I would call that pilot a fool. I wish him and any anyone else wanting to stay the best, but anyone under 45 should not think twice about bailing out. This company (as well as any other "small jet feeder") does not have a bright future without majors giving up 737/320 size scope. If that happens then it doesn't matter what your age, there is no bright future anywhere except for those that already retired or dead.

 

[DoinTime]

there is no bright future anywhere except for those that already retired or dead.

Would you like me to chamber a bullet for you?

 

[Flyer1015]

Flyer

From your vast experience (career 9E Fo) you know how many Mesaba pilots will elect to go? You are just one of those guys that always has all the answers.

I can tell you from looking at our actual seniority list that 80% have the box checked as "yes". The 14 remaining are either "n/a" or "No" . Some of these are working on the 4 year degree requirement and may say yes when they meet the requirement. Some of the guys that checked "no" will probably convert over to yes if this merger shows any signs of trouble.

Historically speaking, and from looking at the seniority list, Mesaba has many lifers. All the guys right now hired in the 80s at XJ will most likely be lifers. Even early 90s. How much is that of your seniority list. Isn't the most senior guy a 1981 DOH? Many guys make up the Xj list from 1981 DOH to 1992 DOH. I don't see those guys leaving anywhere. 20+ yrs at XJ to start over? I don't see it. Now, historically, XJ probably has the most amount of lifers due to the fact they have been around for a looooooong time. But those days are over. Mesaba is dead. Now, it's Pinnacle. And the remnant truboprop Mesaba is just Colgan painted a new color scheme. I really hope that pilots wake up and realize that the good ol' Mesaba they knew is dead/long gone, and the new Pinnacle is not a place to hang your hat. Anyone under 40 needs to work on getting outta here. Unless you like taking large bets (Vegas style) and bet on another 25 years of Pinnacle perfection. Good luck.

I think the number at PCL is closer to 300. I would bet the XJ number is greater than 200 too. I doubt the new contract (except for maybe the locked up job protections) changed anyone's minds at any of the carriers on whether they were going to stay or go. Especially if you have a time investment in already. If you are north of 10 years of service and in your 40's its going to be a tough gig to leave.

With the new contract, the # of Pinnacle lifers definitely increased.

Then I would call that pilot a fool. I wish him and any anyone else wanting to stay the best, but anyone under 45 should not think twice about bailing out. This company (as well as any other "small jet feeder") does not have a bright future without majors giving up 737/320 size scope. If that happens then it doesn't matter what your age, there is no bright future anywhere except for those that already retired or dead.

Amen to above! Somebody else who gets it.

Would you like me to chamber a bullet for you?

A little early. Lets wait to see how this integration goes, and what the movement looks like in the near future.

 

[Flyprdu]

I will not presume to speculate on each individuals' decision to stay or go.

But I can speak generally that I can see how 10 years of post 9/11 stagnation can change a man's career expectations in accordance to what he values.

Think about your perspective 10 years ago. Compare it to today. I can imagine that life has a funny way of changing it for you.

I will say this: If there hadn't been the 9/11 slowdown and age 65, there would be far less regional lifers than there are today.

 

[Flyer1015]

I will say this: If there hadn't been the 9/11 slowdown and age 65, there would be far less regional lifers than there are today.

Obviously, that goes without saying. 9/11 at the beginning of the decade, a little hiring spree mid-decade, and then the Age 65 rule, coupled with the worst economy since the Great Depression. These are the reasons that have made many become lifers.

However, I cringe when I hear a guy in their 20s and 30s that say they will be lifers here. That is just plain stupid. You have far too much time left to risk staying. 40-45 is also worth leaving, in my opinion, but everyone will reason it in a different way. Above 45-50 could go either way, and 50 or above can just stay as lifers.

 

[mesaba13]

Anyone with 18 years has already permanently passsed up the flow through. The 18 year guy you supposedly talked to does not have the flow option anymore. If the flow award comes to a pilots number and that pilot chooses not to go, the pilot can no longer flow. The top 122 Mesaba pilots are not able to flow anymore. The next pilot to flow is a 1997 hire(14 years).

It is fairly safe to assume that those hired prior to 1997 will not be going anywhere, so these top 122 Mesaba pilots who passed on the flow would most certainly be "lifers". Many others that missed the flow will be trying to leave.

 

[Waylon]

I am a 97 new hire and will be flowing if given the oportunity and I am over 40.

 

[WMUSIGPI]

Would you like me to chamber a bullet for you?

Way to take me out of context there.... Try quoting the entire statement.

 

[Kaman]

Bring back the Beech!

 

[jynxyjericho]

Bring back the Beech!

Smartest thing I've heard on this board so far.

I'm fleet manager.

 

[Kaman]

Sounds good to me! And not really as ludicrous as my tongue in cheek remark might have been. The 1900 would make money on most of those sectors that are losers on the SAAB? EAS was never really intended to be flown by aircraft in the 34-seat class, and with exception of a few cities it has been a pork barrel project for politicans.
The 1900 has a viable place in the new world order of airline transportation in the United States. It is either that or "high-speed rail", but don't get me started...

 

[gojo]

Sounds good to me! And not really as ludicrous as my tongue in cheek remark might have been. The 1900 would make money on most of those sectors that are losers on the SAAB? EAS was never really intended to be flown by aircraft in the 34-seat class, and with exception of a few cities it has been a pork barrel project for politicans.
The 1900 has a viable place in the new world order of airline transportation in the United States. It is either that or "high-speed rail", but don't get me started...

I don't know of any routes that the Saab lost money on. EAS made them profitable on the routes with low yeild factors. That's why I think Delta's thinking is so strange. Of course, when you fly a CRJ 200 to Devils lake it's going to loose money. Delta could give two $hits about people in the smaller communities. All they car about is having their name on jets. That business model worked good when gas was cheap, but in my humble opinion they are missing out on a oppertunity here. It wouldn't be too hard to market props creatively.

 

[bri5150]

I don't know of any routes that the Saab lost money on. EAS made them profitable on the routes with low yeild factors. That's why I think Delta's thinking is so strange. Of course, when you fly a CRJ 200 to Devils lake it's going to loose money. Delta could give two $hits about people in the smaller communities. All they car about is having their name on jets. That business model worked good when gas was cheap, but in my humble opinion they are missing out on a oppertunity here. It wouldn't be too hard to market props creatively.

Yeah, but they may be getting free feed if Lakes picks up the routes and the government pays them. I don't think it was quite free feed with us. I could be totally off base.

 

[gojo]

Yeah, but they may be getting free feed if Lakes picks up the routes and the government pays them. I don't think it was quite free feed with us. I could be totally off base.

True, but I just think Delta is sending out a strong message here. I think the average custumer is going to see it differently

 

[jynxyjericho]

I don't know of any routes that the Saab lost money on. EAS made them profitable on the routes with low yeild factors. That's why I think Delta's thinking is so strange. Of course, when you fly a CRJ 200 to Devils lake it's going to loose money. Delta could give two $hits about people in the smaller communities. All they car about is having their name on jets. That business model worked good when gas was cheap, but in my humble opinion they are missing out on a oppertunity here. It wouldn't be too hard to market props creatively.

What you may not be aware of Gojo, is that many of those 1900 routes get subsidized 100%. See what Kaman is getting at?

 

[DoinTime]

I would wager that less than 1/2 of 1% of Delta's customers originate from or have a destination to these EAS cities that they are pulling the plug on. Considering that these cities need an entirely separate fleet to serve them profitably, its probably not worth their time to screw around with it for such a small portion of their market share. Aspen was probably a lucrative market too but it wasn't worth continuing to keep a bloated fleet of Avro's in the air just so they could continue serving it.

 

[TurboAWD]

I think pilots put to much emphasis on aircraft. Yes, a SAAB is cheeper to operate than a CRJ from MSP-BRD, etc. But you still have to have gate space, ground crew, ticket counter, deicing equipment etc, so I suspect the overall cost of operating a SAAB vs CRJ on these routes is not as different as it might seem at first.

Also, just because DL is going to stop flying these routes, it doesn't mean that someone else won't fly them, and that those passengers won't still get on a DL flight out of MSP or DTW when they get there (think of the Great Lakes/UA model)

 

[Inconceivable]

Sounds like a new Cape Air opportunity!

 

[sinkrate]

I think pilots put to much emphasis on aircraft. Yes, a SAAB is cheeper to operate than a CRJ from MSP-BRD, etc. But you still have to have gate space, ground crew, ticket counter, deicing equipment etc, so I suspect the overall cost of operating a SAAB vs CRJ on these routes is not as different as it might seem at first.

Also, just because DL is going to stop flying these routes, it doesn't mean that someone else won't fly them, and that those passengers won't still get on a DL flight out of MSP or DTW when they get there (think of the Great Lakes/UA model)

When the B1900 operator pulled out of the Arkansas and Missouri EAS market they were replaced by a Pilatus operater out of the northwest that uses the call sign Sasquatch. They park at FBOs that provide the ground handling in exchange for fuel purchases. I see growth in their future.

 

[Paul R. Smith]

When the B1900 operator pulled out of the Arkansas and Missouri EAS market they were replaced by a Pilatus operater out of the northwest that uses the call sign Sasquatch. They park at FBOs that provide the ground handling in exchange for fuel purchases. I see growth in their future.

This!!
Maybe its time to start a small "regional" airline operating to small cities in the Upper MW.

 

[TurboAWD]

Send me $200 with your resume, and I'll consider your application to be a direct entry captain!!!