Pilot shortage

[the palm]

The pilot shortage is for real and it is happening right now. I know this because to date I haven't received a single application to the airline I'm starting.

 

[bizjet800]

The pilot shortage is for real and it is happening right now. I know this because to date I haven't received a single application to the airline I'm starting.

Do tell!

 

[pilotyip]

Hey listen up!

Yep, that's the reality. Kind of a stark contrast to this pilot shortage bullcrap you push every now and then, isn't it?

You know there is no such thing as a pilot shortage, Avbug has firmly established that. However there pilot hiring booms and busts, the next boom is coming in 2011 and will accelerate in 2012. How do I know we are starting to hire and we normally do that a couple years in advance of everyone else.

 

[20sx]

I agree, there will be a shortage. I just don't get why you think it will start in 2011. Pilots don't hit 65 until at least December of 2012! (lets just call it 2013) Then, most of the majors have to hire back the furloughed. I wouldn't think there would be a need for new hires until at least mid 2013.

 

[Flightdawg]

I agree, there will be a shortage. I just don't get why you think it will start in 2011. Pilots don't hit 65 until at least December of 2012! (lets just call it 2013) Then, most of the majors have to hire back the furloughed. I wouldn't think there would be a need for new hires until at least mid 2013.

Several flaws in your logic here.

1. You are assuming all or most pilots want to fly until age 65. Most want to retire by 62-63.

2. You are assuming all or most pilots can hold a First Class medical until age 65. Most will not. Whatever problem they have doesn't have to affect their quality of life, but it will stop them from flying as a Captain for a Part 121 operation.

3. Most furloughs have found other jobs. Those furloughed after 9/11 already have 8 years of seniority. Delta's last recall rate was 1 out of 14. American's was 1 out of 10. The longer those pilots are furloughed, the less likely they'll give up their current jobs to become furlough fodder on reserve in some ****hole airport. Unlike some people on this forum, those furloughed pilots realize that flying a big shiny jet doesn't always pay the bills nor is it all it's cracked up to be.

4. You are assuming the legacies will hire into their vacancies. Expect them to downsize their domestic operations in favor of code-shares and contract feed. Eventually they will grow again, but not anytime in the next 5-10 years.

 

[20sx]

A lot of people would like to retire young, but they can't because of the degradation of their 401K, not to mention lack of pensions.

If they lose their 1st, can't they go back to being an FO. FO wages for long term employees at the majors still aren't so bad (compared to NO wages).

I didn't realize the recall rate was so bad. Does that take into account the amount that are temporarily bypassing recall? Still, wow!

I do think there will be some downsizing, but I don't think contract feed will grow. There does seem to by some international growth, which with the higher crew utilization would hopefully counteract the domestic shrinkage (ala Delta).

OR, maybe I'm just a glass half full guy I try to be realistic in outlook, but it's kind of a guessing game when it comes to airlines.

 

[motch]

FlightDawg hit the nail on the head...

There is not now, nor will there be a pilot shortage anytime soon.
What there will be, is a shortage of pilots willing to accept jobs at low salaries and poor quality of life.

There will always be qualified pilots out there.. ie ATP holders, Military (Guard and Reserve/Active Duty retiring) pilots and furloughees, that can fill the right seat. But will they accept working for less than a fast food employee? That is to be seen.

motch

 

[Dumb Pilot]

The military seems to be very willing to go to unmanned aerial vehicles, I don't think the military will produce that many pilots in the future. You might be correct for the next five years but the next 20? I'm not too sure

 

[motch]

For the next 5 to 10 years, there will still be Active Duty pilots retiring who are -130, -17, -5, -135 and -10 pilots. On top of that, you have Guard and reserve pilots going through UPT and flying those aircraft too.

20 years, who knows? At that point we could see high speed rail service replacing the RJ flying that is so popular here in the states~

But for today, and the foreseeable future... there is no pilot shortage.

motch

 

[Flightdawg]

A lot of people would like to retire young, but they can't because of the degradation of their 401K, not to mention lack of pensions.

Some will, but as pointed out, some still want out or won't have a choice. Like myself, most have based their retirement plans on age 60. The fact we now have the 65 option is nice, but many are tired of the commuting, being away or simply of dealing with the entire business. Time will tell, but I think you will see the trend will bear out the information I passed along.

I didn't realize the recall rate was so bad. Does that take into account the amount that are temporarily bypassing recall? Still, wow!

No, asked when they'd come back many deferred giving an answer. It makes sense to defer. Why burn a bridge when you don't have to? When asked, most are comfortable where they are. Two people I personally know are now Captains at JetBlue. Should they give this up to be a reserve FO on the MD80 in LaGuardia?

OR, maybe I'm just a glass half full guy I try to be realistic in outlook, but it's kind of a guessing game when it comes to airlines.

It's good to optimistic. I try to be a glass half full guy myself. However, there's a difference between being optimistic and simply wearing rose colored glasses. It's important to be realistic.

Ever since the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, this industry has been evolving just as other industries did after deregulation. While some pilots like to blame other pilots for either being bottom feeders or not holding the line, the fact remains this business is changing regardless what they do. Like ALPA and age 65, we can either stand aside and rant or become involved and attempt to mitigate the negative impact of these changes on pilots.