Pilot shortage

[ASA_Aviator]

FlightDawg hit the nail on the head...

There is not now, nor will there be a pilot shortage anytime soon.
What there will be, is a shortage of pilots willing to accept jobs at low salaries and poor quality of life.

There will always be qualified pilots out there.. ie ATP holders, Military (Guard and Reserve/Active Duty retiring) pilots and furloughees, that can fill the right seat. But will they accept working for less than a fast food employee? That is to be seen.

motch

Again, a shortage due to lack of pilots or a shortage due to people not wanting to work as pilots equals the same thing, a shortage. This isn't rocket science.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semantics

 

[Cobraair75drvr]

Dawg,

I agree with 1-3 but adamantly disagree with 4. The 50 seat and less rjs are being reduced in a big way and the 70-76 seaters will have caps. After the gang-raping the legacies took since 2001 I don't see anyone allowing more outsourcing. After what the legacy pilots have seen with the outsourcing to date, don't expect anymore. If anything maybe bringing some of the small jet flying back. Now everyone has a price. If the company came to the union and offered Dal/Ual 2000-2001 rates adjusted for inflation + restoring the DB plan + with a lump sum option on the DB plan, full retro pay, etc. Maybe, just maybe we might concede more scope. This has about as much likelihood happening as #4.

Several flaws in your logic here.

1. You are assuming all or most pilots want to fly until age 65. Most want to retire by 62-63.

2. You are assuming all or most pilots can hold a First Class medical until age 65. Most will not. Whatever problem they have doesn't have to affect their quality of life, but it will stop them from flying as a Captain for a Part 121 operation.

3. Most furloughs have found other jobs. Those furloughed after 9/11 already have 8 years of seniority. Delta's last recall rate was 1 out of 14. American's was 1 out of 10. The longer those pilots are furloughed, the less likely they'll give up their current jobs to become furlough fodder on reserve in some ****hole airport. Unlike some people on this forum, those furloughed pilots realize that flying a big shiny jet doesn't always pay the bills nor is it all it's cracked up to be.

4. You are assuming the legacies will hire into their vacancies. Expect them to downsize their domestic operations in favor of code-shares and contract feed. Eventually they will grow again, but not anytime in the next 5-10 years.

 

[wmuflyguy]

Several flaws in your logic here.

1. You are assuming all or most pilots want to fly until age 65. Most want to retire by 62-63.

2. You are assuming all or most pilots can hold a First Class medical until age 65. Most will not. Whatever problem they have doesn't have to affect their quality of life, but it will stop them from flying as a Captain for a Part 121 operation.

3. Most furloughs have found other jobs. Those furloughed after 9/11 already have 8 years of seniority. Delta's last recall rate was 1 out of 14. American's was 1 out of 10. The longer those pilots are furloughed, the less likely they'll give up their current jobs to become furlough fodder on reserve in some ****hole airport. Unlike some people on this forum, those furloughed pilots realize that flying a big shiny jet doesn't always pay the bills nor is it all it's cracked up to be.

4. You are assuming the legacies will hire into their vacancies. Expect them to downsize their domestic operations in favor of code-shares and contract feed. Eventually they will grow again, but not anytime in the next 5-10 years.

Also flaws in your logic. You are assuming a lot of things(1,2 and 4 are all assumptions) in your predictions.

 

[Flightdawg]

Also flaws in your logic. You are assuming a lot of things(1,2 and 4 are all assumptions) in your predictions.

Don't believe me then. Keep that half glass empty, but my data for 1-3 is based on airline surveys from various ALPA carriers. If there is a flaw, it's that the pilots responding were either lying or will change their minds. Current trends show the data is valid.

On #4, it's the trend. The legacies are withdrawing from the domestic market and outsourcing the feed to other airlines. How much they will withdraw varies with the airline in question. While many here want to blame the current trend on 9/11 and have hope the trend will reverse, others think 9/11 didn't change the industry as much as it sped up the inevitable. We're seeing trends now that wouldn't have been seen until 2015 or later if 9/11 hadn't happened.

No matter whether you believe me or not, it will be clear over the next 5 years exactly what is happening in all four cases mentioned. You won't have to take my or anyone elses word for it. You will see it with your own eyes.

 

[Flightdawg]

The 50 seat and less rjs are being reduced in a big way and the 70-76 seaters will have caps. After the gang-raping the legacies took since 2001 I don't see anyone allowing more outsourcing.

Hope is a good thing and I hope you are right, but the world is changing under our feet. Next up is cabotage. It's a global airline market. As the linked article mentions, the effect of Airline Deregulation are still being felt. It's not over yet.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Comair is going to recall a bunch of pilots soon. Compass was told to gear up their hiring. Other airlines have started recalling and/or hiring.

At DAL, EVERYONE has been recalled. They only guys still are are on bypass from recall (they can come back later...military commitments, basically).

cliff
NBO

 

[no1pilot2000]

Current and former regional pilots....

Do you prefer RJ's or turbo props?

 

[Twisted Mind]

Lack of available pilots for what ever reason will still not bring rates up. Lets just say that Mesa decides that it needs to pay more to attract pilots. They will go to the union and say we need to increase first year F.O. pay by 10%. The senior pilots will make the union refuse this offer unless they get 15% pay increase and Mesa will say sorry can not afford that and no one will get a raise. We already had the shortage lived though it and nothing changed.

 

[JustaNumber]

Lack of available pilots for what ever reason will still not bring rates up. Lets just say that Mesa decides that it needs to pay more to attract pilots. They will go to the union and say we need to increase first year F.O. pay by 10%. The senior pilots will make the union refuse this offer unless they get 15% pay increase and Mesa will say sorry can not afford that and no one will get a raise. We already had the shortage lived though it and nothing changed.

Okay, to follow your logic, no raises occur, and not enough pilots get hired. If air travel demand goes up, but airlines can't offer enough seats, the ticket price of remaining seats goes up. Airlines end up with more cash in their pockets, and see a demand for more flying that they can't provide. End result: they will eventually spend that cash to raise pilot pay, to enhance their own revenue. Just my theory, though.

 

[JustaNumber]

After the gang-raping the legacies took since 2001 I don't see anyone allowing more outsourcing. After what the legacy pilots have seen with the outsourcing to date, don't expect anymore. If anything maybe bringing some of the small jet flying back. Now everyone has a price. If the company came to the union and offered Dal/Ual 2000-2001 rates adjusted for inflation + restoring the DB plan + with a lump sum option on the DB plan, full retro pay, etc. Maybe, just maybe we might concede more scope. This has about as much likelihood happening as #4.

Cobradrvr,
This is an honest question, and not flamebait. Let's say that a couple years down the road the economy tanks even more, forcing several airlines close to the brink of bankruptcy yet again. If your airline management told you they were facing a crippling financial crisis, and the options were one of the following, what would you decide?
1) Scope remains as is, and 15% of your pilot group will get furloughed, while the remaining "lucky" ones will see 40% pay cuts, or
2) Let management ease scope one more time to allow a few more RJs, and everyone currently on property gets to keep their current job and current pay.

I'm not saying I like what has happened in the past, and past performance is no guarantee of future results, but if history is any guide, I see #2 as the more likely choice. (To be followed shortly thereafter by #1 anyway!)