Not enough pilots out there?

[DirkkDiggler]

What I mean is that I don't want to be in any ones fight. My original post was I see now taking WRONG. Of course I tell them what will be made down the line. I even tell them what I am making now and they are floored in a good way. Since I give out my cell # to them after, I think I have actually talked 2-3 high schoolers in to it.

That's great. I commend you for taking personal time and trying to help kids out. We would all be better people for following in your footsteps. No, I'm not being sarcastic.

 

[hopalong]

Well that got way out of hand, but hay some other valid points were made. Moving on to maybe more important threads.

 

[COD God]

Greetings bloggers...

As a military turned civilian (just retired) pilot in the pool with the rest of ya...(looking for work...ouch)....I offer the following two cents worth:

Once upon a time, the regional/commuter business was a hiring pool for the big-shots (hence it was only a stepping stone). Clearly, American airlines have not figured out how to be profitable (SW the exception....FEDEX/UPS...different animals). 9-11 didn't kill the airline industry - one can blame the internet (ergo Al Gore - hah!) - for their crumbling. The internet introduced the Wal-Mart affect to the airlines - and the flying public was eager to eat up the cheap tickets that were offered.

Unwilling to assert their need to make money, the "legacy" airlines doomed themselves by caving in to the marketing practices of their competition.

Adding molasses to the machinery was the "old boy" idea that pilots should be paid a bazillion bucks for flying a bus in the sky. Nice idea in the early days of aviation...but "too good to be true" for the long haul. Yes, pilots should be paid well...but what we do doesn't rate a multi-million dollar pension. (I think that the peanuts that commuters get paid is rediculous and offensive!! - if the flying public only knew.....where's the union??)

Finally - market economics will always drive things - and we're coming out of a down cycle. A LOT of folks are quoting 2007. I think this is a valid optimistic outlook for the industry. SW is hiring 500 pilots a year for the next five years (at least). Delta is talking about needing to hire new pilots next summer. Virgin is coming to America. VLJ's and BIZJets are exploding (in growth....). The future is rosy - and with it will come a change in the status quo. When there's truly a shortage of pilots...(if that happens)...then companies will have to pay more to encourage applicants.

I personally think that we'll all enjoy the changes. Overall pilot pay will stabilize at a "reasonable" rate...perhaps $100K - $150K range for "major" and $50K range for regionals....bizjet guys are STARTING in the $100K range and I have a buddy who just got a job STARTING at $190K (Private owner).

It does make sense to me that there would be a shortage of interest (therefore pilots) in the bottom end of the market. This will only deepen as more pilots are hired into other jobs and more commuters give up on the tight budget/lifestyle.

Good luck to all!! The future is bright!

 

[pilotyip]

Rod, you just confirmed it is all part of the coming 2007 hiring boom

 

[apache]

Greetings bloggers...

As a military turned civilian (just retired) pilot in the pool with the rest of ya...(looking for work...ouch)....I offer the following two cents worth:

Once upon a time, the regional/commuter business was a hiring pool for the big-shots (hence it was only a stepping stone). Clearly, American airlines have not figured out how to be profitable (SW the exception....FEDEX/UPS...different animals). 9-11 didn't kill the airline industry - one can blame the internet (ergo Al Gore - hah!) - for their crumbling. The internet introduced the Wal-Mart affect to the airlines - and the flying public was eager to eat up the cheap tickets that were offered.

Unwilling to assert their need to make money, the "legacy" airlines doomed themselves by caving in to the marketing practices of their competition.

Adding molasses to the machinery was the "old boy" idea that pilots should be paid a bazillion bucks for flying a bus in the sky. Nice idea in the early days of aviation...but "too good to be true" for the long haul. Yes, pilots should be paid well...but what we do doesn't rate a multi-million dollar pension. (I think that the peanuts that commuters get paid is rediculous and offensive!! - if the flying public only knew.....where's the union??)

Finally - market economics will always drive things - and we're coming out of a down cycle. A LOT of folks are quoting 2007. I think this is a valid optimistic outlook for the industry. SW is hiring 500 pilots a year for the next five years (at least). Delta is talking about needing to hire new pilots next summer. Virgin is coming to America. VLJ's and BIZJets are exploding (in growth....). The future is rosy - and with it will come a change in the status quo. When there's truly a shortage of pilots...(if that happens)...then companies will have to pay more to encourage applicants.

I personally think that we'll all enjoy the changes. Overall pilot pay will stabilize at a "reasonable" rate...perhaps $100K - $150K range for "major" and $50K range for regionals....bizjet guys are STARTING in the $100K range and I have a buddy who just got a job STARTING at $190K (Private owner).

It does make sense to me that there would be a shortage of interest (therefore pilots) in the bottom end of the market. This will only deepen as more pilots are hired into other jobs and more commuters give up on the tight budget/lifestyle.

Good luck to all!! The future is bright!

Another "brilliant" analysis from someone with "real world" experience. Maybe you should take your show on the road with Kit Darby. Better yet, why don't you learn about the real world of civilian aviation by taking a regional job, assuming you could pass a sim eval. My guess is that a guy like you would be eaten alive out on the line. No O Club to network your career out there in the real world "Colonel". BTW, my 15 year old niece wrote a more cerebral analysis of the aviation sector than what I've seen from you. Perhaps you shouldn't underestimate the intelligence of the audience whom you are trying to impress.

 

[PilotOnTheRise]

I agree with this. I think major pay will stabalize where it is, along with regional pay. At some point, it may go up again, but I would expect that things will tend to stay within the range of a major captain earning $150K, while a regional captain will still earn $60-$80K, with the potential to make more.

I also think that there will be more movement within the airline industry in the next couple of years. When DL, NW, UA start hiring, all of which are rumored to possibly begin hiring sometime next year, I think in time, upgrades will come down, etc. I think if your goal is a major, it is very attainable for those currently in at a regional, and for those who will be getting into aviation in the next few years.

I personally think that we'll all enjoy the changes. Overall pilot pay will stabilize at a "reasonable" rate...perhaps $100K - $150K range for "major" and $50K range for regionals....bizjet guys are STARTING in the $100K range and I have a buddy who just got a job STARTING at $190K (Private owner).

 

[apache]

Pay is more than just $$$$$$$

100 hour months, crappy hotels, 21 days of reserve, meaningless labor contracts, and elimination of crew meals are all part of the "stabilization".

Factor in cabotage, H#foreigner visas, increasing international code shares, cutthroat scab outfits like Geuxjet, bigger commuter jets, and you have an industry that is stabilizing right in the toilet.

Hire they might. Don't believe that it is anything like it was or should be. As long as there are those like the "Colonel" who think that pilots are overpaid because he can work for less because he is just supplementing his retirement, the race to the bottom will continue.

 

[n32jk]

Pilotyip is a recruiter/training guy for USA Jet. It is a common practice now in the trucking industry for recruiters to moderate websites to pump their company to help fill slots. Not that there is anything wrong with that.

Truckers have shorter duty days and CAN make a lot more money over the long term than people that fly for anything less than the major airlines. Not much difference between the two with respect to the working conditions and respect one receives on the job.

It should be a warning sign when becoming a pilot is DIRECTLY comparable with being a truck driver. And the trucking industry has gotten significantly worse in the last twenty years. Pilot shortage or not, pilot wages will not go up.

You are right when pilots with 400 hours are happy to fly for a regional and already post with a handle with CAPT the wages will stay where they are.

 

[n32jk]

There still a lot of time off, and the pay check still puts you in the upper 10% of wage earners in the US. Beats working as an acountant in an office. Where else can you be paid a decent wage to do something you like? Still living the dream.

Nightmares are dreams too,,,,are they not???????

 

[pilotyip]

Someone's dreams may be someone else's nightmare. The person dreaming will be the one to determine if it is a dream or a nightmare. Not winning the getting the job at FedEx could be a nightmare; not dying in an airplane crash some forty years could be a dream.