NJA 1st QTR Earnings

[rajflyboy]

Amen Brother

 

[T-1GUY]

I don't see any profit being shown with us so near to a contract extension/negotiation. Also, for those non-accountant types, net profit is not that meaningful. I could manipulate those numbers all day. What I really care about is Cash Flow. I also need to ask, why do we have to have growth ? If I can hit the sweet spot with the current number of aircraft, and have a positive long term cash flow, all I would need to plan for is a long term plan of renewing the disposable assets (ie New airplanes every ten years).

I would love to see growth, but if and when we see it, I believe it will be a very small percentage of the fleet, and only when I am maximizing the assets that I currently have, and minimizing the biggest expenses (getting the biggest bang for my buck...)

As a side note: The average federal income tax paid by a well run corporation is about 3%... This is due to good long term planning of your expenses to minimize profit shown on an income statement thereby minimizing the dollars that Uncle Sam collects. Once again, it is only the cash flow statement that matters...

 

[BentOver]

I would love to see growth, but if and when we see it, I believe it will be a very small percentage of the fleet, and only when I am maximizing the assets that I currently have, and minimizing the biggest expenses (getting the biggest bang for my buck...)

I think this is the fear of many furloughed and even not furloughed pilots.....No growth means no upgrades..... Not such a big deal as far as log book stuff..But that paycheck for SIC's maxes out at 10 years and under $100K for the 7/7..you'd have to work the 18 just to see $100K on the larger fleets....

Hopefully the addage that you need to grow to succeed takes hold.... I don't know how you tell a sales team, who's salary is dictated by sales, to only sell "x" amount to recoup owners who leave.... Then again maybe that's why sales people are leaving...

Who knows... maybe a couple hundred guys will retire/leave over the next 4-5 years..

 

[Pervis]

One thing to consider when it comes to profits and BKS desired margins. Netjets may only bring in a few percentage points, but the time it saves the brass in other BKS companies means increased profitablitity for every other entity Buffet owns. Time is money, and we provide it.

 

[T-1GUY]

Who knows... maybe a couple hundred guys will retire/leave over the next 4-5 years..

I just don't see that happening. Most of the older guys took the buyout a couple of years ago. I think the majority of the captains left are in the 40-50 crowd...

 

[imacdog]

I've seen some pretty ancient dudes walking around the FBOs in the last few months. A look at the birthdays list on the union board will give you a rough idea of the age range of the pilot group as well.

 

[gunfyter]

The only way people will retire is if we negotiate Defined Benefits, otherwise...

Many Won't Be Able to Retire Until They're 80

Retire at 80? Boomers and Gen X May Be Stuck in Work Force - Yahoo ...

Jun 10, 2011 ... Retire at 65? Fuhgeddaboutit, a new study says. Baby Boomers and Gen Xers may need to delay retirement into their 70s or 80s to have enough ...



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[BentOver]

I just don't see that happening. Most of the older guys took the buyout a couple of years ago. I think the majority of the captains left are in the 40-50 crowd...

On the contrary, considering the package that was being offered, VERY FEW took the buyout....(most were probably hit hard in the wallet during the downturn and couldn't afford to retire??)

Just guessing but I'd have to estimate there has to be atleast 50 or so guys pushing 70?? (just the other day there were 2 guys who turned 69) Not alot overall but enough to possibly stave off a furlough OR aid in returns?

If anyone is going to jump ship I'd guess it would be the SIC's... NJA SIC pay is ok, but really only if you work the 18 day...The 7/7 pays approximately $70K-$80K for it's lifetime. Not much better than regional captain pay, but without the biddable schedule. Regional captains leave that $$ for the majors so why wouldn't a longterm SIC do the same?

The real allure for NJA as a new hire or short term SIC is first year pay.. But once you get into being a 10 year SIC that allure quickly fades. Especially when you see even JetBlue SIC's making more and working fewer days with a biddable schedule.

 

[jtf]

I counted up the number of pilots by age from the one company communication that accidentally included it when they announced how many took the early outs (it didn't say anybodies names, just how many pilots at each age by PIC or SIC). Not including those who left, there are somewhere around 300 pilots that will be 65 or older within the next 5 years and about half of them are SICs. 65 also doesn't really mean much for NJA and retirement. We aren't going to become captains through retirement attrition. Attrition to other jobs by lots of more senior pilots is the only way outside of growth and if that is happening, it is most likely because they don't believe their Captain positions will be around all that much longer. I hope we go into negotiations ASAP to bring up the SIC scales beyond year 10 and healthily above the current yearly figures. I understand this is only going to affect a relatively small number of pilots so I don't know how much negotiating capital we will get, but I can always hope. I also hope we get totally new management that will be willing to grow and take back market share- might as well keep hoping.

 

[T-1GUY]

It concerns me that I have seen quotes that the SIC's were taken care of in the last round. I sure hope SIC's get taken care of in the next round as well. Who wants to do ten years of a career at about 70K a year.

I agree that attrition will be the SIC's. We just need Southwest to open that app window back up. It makes me sic (SIC get it) to see their pay is about twice what we get.

I still remember the quote that the upgrade would be a year and one half from hire date. I thought I would only have to put up with Shi$$y pay for a short time....

 

[BentOver]

I still remember the quote that the upgrade would be a year and one half from hire date. I thought I would only have to put up with Shi$$y pay for a short time....

Hehe, not sure who would have said it, but the term "fool me once, shame on...." It's funny that is the same theory that most, if not all, regional SIC's had taken throughout the early 2000's......"Ehh, it's a quick upgrade, who cares what the 10 year payscale stops at......."

I'm guessing that was the same form of thinking that went into both CBA2005 and IBB2007..maybe we should all FINALLY learn the lessons from the past!!!!!

 

[G4dude]

I counted up the number of pilots by age from the one company communication that accidentally included it when they announced how many took the early outs (it didn't say anybodies names, just how many pilots at each age by PIC or SIC). Not including those who left, there are somewhere around 300 pilots that will be 65 or older within the next 5 years and about half of them are SICs. 65 also doesn't really mean much for NJA and retirement. We aren't going to become captains through retirement attrition. Attrition to other jobs by lots of more senior pilots is the only way outside of growth and if that is happening, it is most likely because they don't believe their Captain positions will be around all that much longer. I hope we go into negotiations ASAP to bring up the SIC scales beyond year 10 and healthily above the current yearly figures. I understand this is only going to affect a relatively small number of pilots so I don't know how much negotiating capital we will get, but I can always hope. I also hope we get totally new management that will be willing to grow and take back market share- might as well keep hoping.

Good post, but this economy isn't producing much growth, I'm afraid. Bummer!

 

[imacdog]

Hehe, not sure who would have said it, but the term "fool me once, shame on...." It's funny that is the same theory that most, if not all, regional SIC's had taken throughout the early 2000's......"Ehh, it's a quick upgrade, who cares what the 10 year payscale stops at......."

I'm guessing that was the same form of thinking that went into both CBA2005 and IBB2007..maybe we should all FINALLY learn the lessons from the past!!!!!

To be fair though the 2007 CBA was a big improvement for SICs, compared to the lower wages that basically topped out at 5 years in the 2005 CBA. The 2007 contract was a bit more forward thinking, and at the time I don't think anyone expected mass furloughs.

 

[rajflyboy]

To be fair though the 2007 CBA was a big improvement for SICs, compared to the lower wages that basically topped out at 5 years in the 2005 CBA. The 2007 contract was a bit more forward thinking, and at the time I don't think anyone expected mass furloughs.

The 1st second I heard about IBB I thought 2 things.

1. We are going to Furlough
2. Union People are going to switch to Management

Turned out to be correct

IBB sent us back to pre 05 in many ways

 

[OPECJet]

Lots of SICs with no PIC time to get anywhere worth going to. NJA turned into a dead end job rapidly for plenty of us. Decent paying dead end job, but dead end nonetheless. The furlough was the final nail in the aviation career coffin, at least for me.

 

[miles otoole]

I would guess that 121 capacity reductions and last minute airfares that are 100-200% higher they were just a few years ago, the frax costs must be going thru the roof.

 

[G4dude]

Lots of SICs with no PIC time to get anywhere worth going to. NJA turned into a dead end job rapidly for plenty of us. Decent paying dead end job, but dead end nonetheless. The furlough was the final nail in the aviation career coffin, at least for me.

When the economy picks up, I bet things will improve rapidly for y'all SICs. Hope so, for sure!

 

[jtf]

I would guess that 121 capacity reductions and last minute airfares that are 100-200% higher they were just a few years ago, the frax costs must be going thru the roof.

The summer has always had brutal last minute fares, but overall I haven't really noticed much difference in the prices over the my time at NJA. I haven't really noticed last minute fares being much if any more excessive than the past. The airlines have been able to get their normal/ non last minute fares up better than before over the last year and that doesn't really affect us much except for training travel that is planned in advance- I was surprised how much that cost even though they bought many weeks in advance, but that is only twice a year now. I guess the prices out of other areas could be appreciating more, but out of my current base there is enough competition to keep things reasonable outside of summer, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. Overall, the airlining is peanuts in the overall cost structure and I would have to guess they won't even try to make any changes to their scheduling practices unless the prices really do at least double for the group overall.

 

[rajflyboy]

The 1st second I heard about IBB I thought 2 things.

1. We are going to Furlough
2. Union People are going to switch to Management

Turned out to be correct

IBB sent us back to pre 05 in many ways

I see that no one wanted to touch this. I figured that.

IBB was a total CRAP SANDWICH

Just go ahead and admit that right now.

 

[jtf]

OK- I like IBB a lot. My salary jumped up 50% and I got the ability to live where I want. I do have G-IV captains junior to me, but I doubt we would have gotten a better deal for the integration and I'd already be at the top of the pay scale making much, much less and living in one of 5 places that I have no desire to live in. I can understand captains not be all that thrilled with the deal, but they didn't gain anywhere near what I got out of it. That said, I haven't flown with anybody in the nearly 4 years we have been on IBB that has complained about it. Some might not have liked it, but I haven't heard any of them open up and rail against it. I'm sorry it doesn't suit your needs or desires, but the overwhelming majority voted yes and honestly we are just wasting time arguing about history that we can do nothing to change, even if the majority wanted to.