New FAA rules....tidbits

[hawkerjock]

Very rough numbers from the FAA 2009-2025 forecast:
Hull's ----------------2008------2009------2010-----2011------2012

mainline AC ---------3743-------3365-----3587------3716-----3823
cargo (jets) ---------949-------943-------955------981------1009
regional jet+tprop ---2582------2329---- 2426------2451 ----- 2513
corporate jets-------11400-----12325-----13155----13945-----14710
corporate tprops ----9600------9665------9740------9860-----10015
pilots req ----------132,514----127,982---133,886---138,414---142,608
pilots w atp's ------146,838---147,650----148,400---149,100---149,700
difference ----------14,324----19,668----14,514-----10959------7,092
% unemployed -------9.7%-----13.3%----9.8%--------7.4%-----4.7%

2012 is going to be a good year (as long as no 1000 variables happen)

If the 121 group require 10-15% more pilots that will etc etc.....

 

[CapnVegetto]

question......is this going to affect 135 in any way shape or form?

 

[Hugh Johnson]

Nice try. Never happen.

 

[zonker]

This is a dream list. This is what should be done, not what will be done.

When you read about "Big Labor" in the WSJ editorial page... this list is why they use those sort of ridiculous terms. Labor hasn't had power for over thirty years.

They intend on keeping that power.

 

[waveflyer]

Right- and why doesn't labor have power?

Maybe we should look in the mirror and figure out why our peers vote republican 70% of the time when they do not value us in any way. We disenfranchise ourselves.

 

[SteelerMan]

I have heard the opposite on commutting, the new regs are aiming at requiring pilots to be in base 8 hours prior to trip

Requiring us to be in base 8 hours prior to a trip would actually contribute to the problem in some cases. 1800 show, now you have to commute in early in the day to sit around the airport waiting to fly, that won't work.

 

[scoreboardII]

well of course they want to adopt the CAA rules, thats so when they release cabatoge and start letting Third Country National airlines fly all our routes for 1/5th the pay, they will already have the same rules...

 

[CatfishVT9]

Right- and why doesn't labor have power?

Maybe we should look in the mirror and figure out why our peers vote republican 70% of the time when they do not value us in any way. We disenfranchise ourselves.

Why? I continue to vote against Dems because they stole my vote in 2000 (FLA "disenfranchised" absentee voter). Many of us also vote Republican because we don't want Socialistic policies and there's no other alternative.

Last fall one of my FOs was telling me how I should vote for Obama from the labor perspective. I looked at him and said: "F--- my job, I'm voting to save the country." I'll continue to do so and it looks like the public is finally waking up to November's huge mistake.

 

[ImbracableCrunk]

And here comes the red vs. blue guys to ruin the thread. Yay.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

For all the naysayers about these regs: If Congress wants it, it will happen. Congress owns the FAA, and they have a LOT of power. That is why the Age 65 change happened so quickly. Congress TOLD the FAA what the new rule would be, and that was that.

I hope that the rules go through...the only problem will be the ATA lobbying Congress...to what effect? I think the -121 supplemental operators MAY be able to get themselves exempted. I hope not!!!

Cliff
NBO
PS-I am flying now using Kenyan CAA Internationl rules..highlights:
11 hours MINIMUM crew rest. No exceptions.
160 MAX DUTY TIME LIMIT in 28 days (for ALL Kenyan pilots, not just Intntl).
Max Duty Day 15 hours...but NO flight time limits.

 

[Jetjockey]

Not going to happen. All this will be looked at, then the ATA will lobby. They will say that these rule changes will cause airlines to go bankrupt. There is NO WAY they could hire and train enough pilots to comply in two years, much less 180 days.

Or god forbid, recall furloughed pilots! Bring them all back, and then some.

 

[b707guy]

I think the -121 supplemental operators MAY be able to get themselves exempted. I hope not!!!

My first thought upon reading the list was to wonder how all the majors would finagle the system to operate under supplemental rules.

Some operations, particularly overnight freight with long hub sort hours, would need some relief from those rules as presented. We'd also very likely see an end to reasonable hotels that are 15-30 minutes away and start being stuck in the amenity-less dumps just off the airport property.

 

[CapnVegetto]

Or god forbid, recall furloughed pilots! Bring them all back, and then some.

If these rule changes happen, there is going to be a LOT of recalls and a mini-hiring boom. Example, a buddy of mine at CAL called crew planning, worried about the possible upcoming furlough, and they are already looking at this. The news he heard was that if this rule change happens, not only will there be no furlough, and not only will they have to recall all 147 furloughs immediately, but they will have to hire about an additional 300.

This change will be GREAT for the pilots.....it'll provide some light in the darkness, and possibly create some new jobs. If it happens EVERYBODY will be recalling and/or hiring. Regionals, Majors, EVERYBODY. I'm hoping it happens for that reason. Let's get some guys back and get some more jobs out there!!

 

[ackattacker]

If these rule changes happen, there is going to be a LOT of recalls and a mini-hiring boom. Example, a buddy of mine at CAL called crew planning, worried about the possible upcoming furlough, and they are already looking at this. The news he heard was that if this rule change happens, not only will there be no furlough, and not only will they have to recall all 147 furloughs immediately, but they will have to hire about an additional 300.

This change will be GREAT for the pilots.....it'll provide some light in the darkness, and possibly create some new jobs. If it happens EVERYBODY will be recalling and/or hiring. Regionals, Majors, EVERYBODY. I'm hoping it happens for that reason. Let's get some guys back and get some more jobs out there!!

I agree completely. However the other side of the coin is that there is always the possibility of a financially shaky carrier not being able to absorb the cost of employing more crew members and going completely T.U.

Nevertheless I welcome the change. Lets hope its for real.

 

[DontFeedTheBear]

I agree completely. However the other side of the coin is that there is always the possibility of a financially shaky carrier not being able to absorb the cost of employing more crew members and going completely T.U.

Nevertheless I welcome the change. Lets hope its for real.

There is no doubt that this would put some financial burden on carriers. The good thing is that it would effect ALL carriers. With no competitive advantage all airlines will have to pass this on to the customer.

And yes! SWA will be impacted too, and maybe a little more than others. These rules may become more restrictive as to the number of legs in a duty period. So maybe even some hiring there!!!

Yogi

 

[jmreii]

If these rule changes happen, there is going to be a LOT of recalls and a mini-hiring boom. Example, a buddy of mine at CAL called crew planning, worried about the possible upcoming furlough, and they are already looking at this. The news he heard was that if this rule change happens, not only will there be no furlough, and not only will they have to recall all 147 furloughs immediately, but they will have to hire about an additional 300.

This change will be GREAT for the pilots.....it'll provide some light in the darkness, and possibly create some new jobs. If it happens EVERYBODY will be recalling and/or hiring. Regionals, Majors, EVERYBODY. I'm hoping it happens for that reason. Let's get some guys back and get some more jobs out there!!

The carrier I work for has a plan in place to eliminate service, shrink service, and to contract out service to international carriers.

 

[HHH]

Example, a buddy of mine at CAL called crew planning, worried about the possible upcoming furlough, and they are already looking at this. The news he heard was that if this rule change happens, not only will there be no furlough, and not only will they have to recall all 147 furloughs immediately, but they will have to hire about an additional 300.

Please be very, very certain of the credibility of your source. Latest from "official" channels (i.e. CALALPA, crew planning, CAL mgt., etc.) is furloughs WILL happen in the Fall. CAL mgt. postures that these new rule changes are "staffing neutral".

Don't shoot the messenger; just passing along what I heard.

 

[Ben Franklin]

CAL mgt. postures that these new rule changes are "staffing neutral".

Exactly. they'll just get more Captains to fly in the right seat and put out the VJM memos for everyone else. The open time WILL get covered by the company saviors... JUNIOR and senior alike.

Sincerely,

B. Franklin

 

[ExAF]

FAA vs Company

Commutting was my first question to him. He flatly said it was discussed but they know there is absolutely no way to control or monitor it. He said no rules on commuting.

Just because the FAA doesn't make rules on commuting doesn' mean the company won't make it's own rules.

 

[Browntothebone]

My first thought upon reading the list was to wonder how all the majors would finagle the system to operate under supplemental rules.

Some operations, particularly overnight freight with long hub sort hours, would need some relief from those rules as presented. We'd also very likely see an end to reasonable hotels that are 15-30 minutes away and start being stuck in the amenity-less dumps just off the airport property.

We operate under both domestic an flag rules. Our current contract limits us to just 11 hours max scheduled duty. Our contract also prohibits our company from putting us in amenity-less dump hotels. Your concerns might apply to your operation and other supplemental 121 cargo haulers, but not ours.