Moodys revises Jetblue debt to Negative

[lowecur]

Their is no way that you can justify that addition of a fleet type of 1,2,3, 10 or 15 can compete with an established fleet type. Especially that of a competing LCC's. Economies of scale will not come into play until B6 has at least 25+ 190s.

Which is why going head to head with Lenord is STUPID, the man plays for keeps. It wasn't just DAL that forced B6 out of ATL.

The 190 pay rates will be the death of B6's stellar pilot relationship. Eventually the music has to stop and someone gets stuck in those seats. Those folks are not going to be happy. Which will only lead to inceased 190 costs. Taxi slow, call in sick, poor moral, increased union pressure yada yada. If mgt doesn't eventually roll over they will be the ones who have truly done the "misjudging"

$37 x 75 x 12= $33,300 To commute to reserve as a 190 FO in Kew Gardens. Your take home is around $23,000. Not even 2k a month, they aren't going to find that many takerswhen upgrade times start approaching 10 years (they are all ready around 5). Especially when CAL, UPS, Fedex, Airtran and Luv will still be hiring

You keep telling your self that B6 mgt is smart for instituting those pay rates. You are right, their is no chance it blows up in their face.

All this from a person who predicted US Airways would be out of business. Keep dreaming.

 

[G4G5]

Aflack Aflack....Quack Quack


And you seem to think somehow that USAir will pull it out? Getting purchased by Cactus is hardly surviving independently

 

[zkmayo]

I can't wait to leave my regional so I can get worse rules and regional pay at a "Major." I am already tired after flying 4 legs a day from Texas to the Northeast, and now Jetblue and a few of their pilots want to make my life even worse. I can't wait, sign me up. I got some friends that want to go to a real airline, like Continental. You Jetblue guys must lay yogurt in your shorts every time you see a 777. Peace out.

That real airline Continental pays a whopping $30/hr first year. UPS, $27/hr. Why dont you start a thread complaining about that? Because theyre a real airline, right?

Dont apply. Youre the type B6 tries to screen out in the interview process anyways. But Id bet you have an app in the database anyways...

 

[IB6 UB9]

You Jetblue guys must lay yogurt in your shorts every time you see a 777. Peace out.

Like when you see a 320.

 

[banger]

G4G5
they aren't going to find that many takerswhen upgrade times start approaching 10 years (they are all ready around 5). Especially when CAL, UPS, Fedex, Airtran and Luv will still be hiring

Where did the 5 year come from? I just upgraded at 1.7 months. I have heard that it is now 2.5-3 years for new hires today.

 

[G4G5]

That real airline Continental pays a whopping $30/hr first year. UPS, $27/hr. Why dont you start a thread complaining about that? Because theyre a real airline, right?

Dont apply. Youre the type B6 tries to screen out in the interview process anyways. But Id bet you have an app in the database anyways...

Let's compare Second year

JetBlue 190 FO
$40 x 75(reserve gurantee) x 12 = $36,000
UPS 2nd year
$59 x 81(reserve gurantee) x 12 = $57,348
now don't forget that UPS is hiring directly into the right seat of the MD11, international overide.

When you mentioned the $27 an hour to start you failed to mention the fact that UPS offers an 11% B fund and a 1% A fund which makes the complete first year package much greater then Jetblues.

Oh and lets not forget the new contract:
ups just announced future planning for FY06.
scs will get bigger and bigger so there is a need for more contractors.
Ups authorizes all contractors to start new hire classes immediatly and purchase more aircraft for menlo, china and all future expansion.
There will be atleast 4 more vacancy bid announced by ups for future contractors.
The net increase will be.
Ups crew = 0
Ups aircraft = 0
We will be rewarding our crew members with the industry leadng contract they deserve as long as we can stay competetive and will not undermining our subcontracting policy.

Don't worry about me, I am very happy where I am, I said no thanks to B6 along time ago.

Open mouth insert foot. Don't ask me to compare 3rd and 4th years

 

[G4G5]

G4G5
they aren't going to find that many takerswhen upgrade times start approaching 10 years (they are all ready around 5). Especially when CAL, UPS, Fedex, Airtran and Luv will still be hiring

Where did the 5 year come from? I just upgraded at 1.7 months. I have heard that it is now 2.5-3 years for new hires today.

From a thread started last month July 26th I believe.
http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=58699&highlight=jetblue+upgrade

3 years to upgrade on the bus is not likely. 12-14 months upgrade on the E190 is plausible. After the 2 year fence comes down for the initial E190 captains, they will most likely slowly transition back to the left seat of the bus. First batch of E190 captains will start training late August. First revenue flight is October 1st. The most junior bus captain now is around #570 with roughly 50 FOs who could hold captain now but have not bid captain; there are roughly 1100 total pilots.
My guess is if you interview August 5th and get hired, you'll start training around October. With 10 captain upgrades per month on the bus, you're looking at around 5 years to upgrade.
Congratulations on getting the interview, hope you get hired. You can always brain storm after you're offered the job.

Good luck.

 

[B6Driver]

The most junior bus captain now is around #635

 

[ShaggyF16]

Let's look at the num's

Ok, G4G5, you can selectively choose your upgrade estimates from previous posts.

One guy said:

"3 years to upgrade on the bus is not likely. 12-14 months upgrade on the E190 is plausible. After the 2 year fence comes down for the initial E190 captains, they will most likely slowly transition back to the left seat of the bus. First batch of E190 captains will start training late August. First revenue flight is October 1st. The most junior bus captain now is around #570 with roughly 50 FOs who could hold captain now but have not bid captain; there are roughly 1100 total pilots.
My guess is if you interview August 5th and get hired, you'll start training around October. With 10 captain upgrades per month on the bus, you're looking at around 5 years to upgrade.
Congratulations on getting the interview, hope you get hired. You can always brain storm after you're offered the job."


Another JB dude posted before him, saying:

"Congrats on getting the call. I'll take a stab at your question. I believe around 140ish(maybe 150) bid captain on the 190, and those of us that did not, are locked out for two years. So, I'd say your reference to 1yr. upgrade on the 190 is probably pretty close. 3 yrs. for the 'Bus seems pretty close as well. Good luck!"

I personally believe the truth will pan out to be closer to the second estimate, 1 yr to upgrade in the 190, 3 yrs to the Bus. We'll receive a new 190 every 3-4 weeks, just like we have, and will continue with the Buses. Historically, we have manned about 13 crews per airplane. We had about 150 folks already on the property bid for the 190.

Conservatively estimating 13 aircraft delivered per year would mean 169 (a very nice number) E-190 Capts required in the first year alone. Somebody has to upgrade within that first year to fill those slots (sts).

Also, you have to look at what guys will actually earn in a year, not just the basic hourly pay rate. Remember, we get time and a half for everything over 70 hours. Most lineholding folks fly about 85 hours/month (and get 16-18 days off with that schedule).

But lets be pessimistic in our estimate and use only our guarantee rates (70 hours/month, no overtime) for a 10 year period showing annual pay:

1) 31,080 (E-190 FO earning less than one would on reserve)
2) 60,480 (E-190 CA, less than a reserve guy)
3) 97,440 (A-320 CA, less than reserve)
4) 99,120 (ditto... etc)
5) 101,640
6) 103,320
7) 105,840
8) 107,520
9) 110,040
10) 111,720

Total over a 10-yr period for a guy flying WAY LESS than the norm around here:

$928,200

Now, let's be a bit more realistic hours-wise, but with way longer upgrade time than I would anticipate:

1) 34,400 (E-190 FO on reserve, not likely, for an entire year, 75 hours/month)
2) 44,400 (E-190 FO lineholder flying 85 hours/month)
3) 82,140 (E-190 CA on reserve, 75 hours/month)
4) 84,360 (E-190 CA lineholder, 85 hours/month)
5) 112,530 (A-320 CA on reserve, 75 hours/month)
6) 136,530 (A-320 CA lineholder, 85 hours/month)
7) 139,860 (ditto... etc)
8) 142,080
9) 145,410
10) 147,630

Total over a 10-yr period as a conservative estimate (some lineholding folks fly and/or get paid for a LOT more than 85 hours/month):

$1,029,340

Now, I don't know what the "norm" is at UPS, but given an upgrade at the 11 year point (and please correct me if I'm wrong, I got my info from airlinepilotpay.com), using the monthly guarantee of 81 hours for your first 10 years:

1) 26,244
2) 72,900
3) 78,732
4) 88,452
5) 93,312
6) 98,172
7) 103,032
8) 107,892
9) 113,724
10) 118,584

Total over a 10-yr period as things stand right now at UPS for someone flying only guarantee:

$901,044

After upgrading at UPS at the 11-year point, the annual salary is:

$177,876, maxing out at the 12-year point for:

$182,736

A "typical", 85 hour/month 12-year JB A-320 CA will max out at:

$154,290

Remember, though, the JB guy upgraded a lot earlier. Over a 20-year period, the "typical" JB pilot will earn:

$2,766,120

Over the same 20-year period, a "typical" UPS pilot will earn:

$2,723,544 (flying only guarantee, 81 hours/month)

A UPS pilot flying 85 hours/month for his entire 20-year career will earn:

$2,858,040

Total advantage for the UPS 85-hour guy over 20 years:

$91,920

Certainly not pocket change, but maybe not the huge disparity folks might mistakenly believe in over the long term.

I, for one am pretty darn happy where I am. I think our E-190 folks are gonna' do just fine over the long haul, and this ignores the possibility of an E-190 pay raise (nothing promised) once the airplane proves (or disproves) its economic viability.

Of course, each pilot has to decide which company they would rather work for (or be fortunate enough to get hired by). Both are great companies.

Company cultures aside, let the (real) numbers do the talking. I've heard about enough uninformed ranting about pay rates....

Shaggy

 

[G4G5]

I appreciate the effort and will have to look at the numbers later (got to run)but they don't reflect some very important data.

You left out the most important fact. That UPS pilots receive a guranteed 11%Bfund. Every month the company provides 11% of their salery to a retirement fund FOR FREE, compounded MONTHLY! You also left out the 1% A fund and the fact that UPS pilots can buy discounted stock every quater of of the LOWEST price that quater (better then options or profit sharing because you can buy it at the lower price AFTER it's gone up). Now as an investor, which stock do you think will do better? Or has done better? So you did leave out something huge, 12%+ compounded monthly on your numbers leaves Jetblue inthe dust.

Ask any UPS pilot how many time has flown 85 hours? They never come close, he works a lot less to generate those numbers. You can believe the second set of estimates, my Jetblue buds tell me the first set is more like reality. Do you actually feel that Jetblue will continue to expand at the rates you suggest (or that their pilots are use to) when oil is above $60 a barrel? What about UAL, DAL and NWA operating under CH11? The days of picking easy route off of Legacy carriers are done with

You also left out the fact that UPS hiring is exploding, purchase of Menlo, China routes, retirements, half the size of Fedex, new contract, yada yada. Competition for Jeblue is only going up, the days of going under the radar are gone.

Thanks for doing the numbers

 

[G4G5]

How many pilots have a limited 10 year career? Most pilots have a 20+ year career (or that's what one would expect from UPS and Jetblue). Your numbers conviently only show the first 10.

Now we could say that every pilot at B6 will fly 85+ hours or that UPS will get an industry leading contract but we need to talk in absolutes, apples to apples. The only way to do that is to take 12 year capt pay and multiply it by reserve gurantee.

Simple math: Jetblue A320 12 year pay is $139

139 x 75(res gurantee) x 12 months x 10 years = $1,251,000

UPS 12 year wide body pay is $190 (according to airlinepilotpay.com most jr capt is 747 SDF)

190 x 81 x 12 x 10 = $1,846,800

ALMOST $ 600,000 difference!!!!!

Now stop for a second, after 10 or 20 years how much does that JetBlue pilot have in his retirement fund? ZERO DOLLARS! SO you need to reduce your numbers and the numbers above by at least 3% for the 401K match.

 

[thruthemurk]

Shaggy 16,

<<Historically, we have manned about 13 crews per airplane. We had about 150 folks already on the property bid for the 190.

Conservatively estimating 13 aircraft delivered per year would mean 169 (a very nice number) E-190 Capts required in the first year alone.>>

Thanks for taking the time to look at numbers. One note, there are actually about 13 PILOTS per airplane, or 6+ Captains. This means about 80 captains for the first 13 airplanes. Quick math check - currently 82 A320's are worth around 500 Captains vice 1000.

Pilots tend to always look just at pay rates and they are indeed important, but ignoring retirement pay when comparing careers can cause misstate reality by HUGE percentages. For example, a b-fund that pays 10% is actually worth closer to 14% to your bottom line when you factor in its non-taxed status. In addition, differences in benefits like medical can be worth several thousand dollar per year.

Good rough look at basic pay comparison, though. For a 5 year old airline, JB pay is not unreasonable - though definite room for improvement. Lets hope it rises rather than everyone else continuing to fall.

One last note, comparing how much an individual pilot makes because he is hired at an airline that has big growth and rapid upgrade hides the fact that the same job is often being performed for siginficantly less. Captain to Captain and FO to FO comparisons in like aircraft are far less complementary to Jetblue,


Murk

 

[B6Driver]

G4G5,

Why are you spinning on that corn cob so fast over JetBlue?
If your company makes money and pays you so well, why do you care?
I've seen you on the Yahoo BB and a few others *itching about the same thing for years.
Please, get a life and a new hobby because nobody cares about your sad story.
If JB does great and takes over the world, GREAT. If JB falls on its AAss and goes T U, well, that's life. Your weak little sermons are not even worth laughing at any more.

LIFE.....just make the best out of it without the tears.

 

[A350]

G4G5:

Your post is accurate....however one piece of the puzzle is missing.

JB, and for that matter all airlines operate in a fiercely competitive industry where many airlines compete for the passengers out there. The internet, which was to airline revenue as Chernobyl was to Soviet nuclear power has been nothing but a BOON for UPS and FedEx.

The reason the vultures haven't been circling the labor agreements at UPS and FedEx is because there isn't quite the cutthroat competition out there for their services.

Lets compare apples to apples, Please!

A350