MidEx

[gt1900]

No I don't froth at the mouth with AAI's offers.. It would have been a big pay increase for me.. It just wasn't big enough. I hope that fuel prices drop in the near future. Because if we go into a recession, fuel continues around $90 a barrel , and the airlines start to lose money again, we may kick ourselves in the butt for not voting this thing in. It wasn't a bad TA, it just wasn't great. Airlines are starting to talk furloughes again, parking airplanes, and laying people off. If this continues, the contract we turned down may turn out to be a great contract.. I think the vote may have been different if guys would have known oil was going to hover around $90 and the airline outlook was starting to look bad again...

 

[CitationLover]

No I don't froth at the mouth with AAI's offers.. It would have been a big pay increase for me.. It just wasn't big enough. I hope that fuel prices drop in the near future. Because if we go into a recession, fuel continues around $90 a barrel , and the airlines start to lose money again, we may kick ourselves in the butt for not voting this thing in. It wasn't a bad TA, it just wasn't great. Airlines are starting to talk furloughes again, parking airplanes, and laying people off. If this continues, the contract we turned down may turn out to be a great contract.. I think the vote may have been different if guys would have known oil was going to hover around $90 and the airline outlook was starting to look bad again...

well i hope the new leadership team gets you guys what you deserve.

likewise, i hope we can do the same in 2008.

 

[asaflyer]

i am for something that won't furlough me

That's probably the most true statement ever made on this board. Good luck to everyone in this industry.

 

[Propsync]

i'd like both. it's lasted for 23 years, why not 23 more?

as far as cheapest that's simply not true. most of our travelers to our high yield routes (LGA, DCA, BOS) are people who travel on someone else's dime. they could care less if the signature seats are $60 more. low yield, leisure routes i would agree with you and that's why the 80 with their configuration flies those routes. personally for me, if i had a 2+ hr flight, I'd pay the extra money for the leg room, etc.

Fatal flaw- Past performance will not guarantee future results. Being behind on fleet and seating decisions is a large part of why Midwest is where they are today.

 

[Propsync]

double post

 

[PCL_128]

It wasn't a bad TA, it just wasn't great.

No, it was bad. Really bad.

I think the vote may have been different if guys would have known oil was going to hover around $90 and the airline outlook was starting to look bad again...

The vote would have been the same from me whether oil is $90 or $190. I don't subsidize fuel costs with my own income and QOL.

 

[PCL_128]

i doubt air tran would even rebid for the company.

I think that's exactly what they'll do, but the bid will be a big discount from the last one. It seems that the market is expecting a rejection from the DOJ, so we might find out soon enough. Best of luck to everyone that might get furloughed.

 

[fam62c]

Anyone got any insight on why MEH is trading around $14 a share when TPG is offering $17 a share cash, and the deal is supposed to close within a month or two. Sounds like a real easy way to make 20% or are there grumblings of the deal not being final?

Beyond the possibility that the DOJ could reject the structure of ownership lies another possibility: TPG/NWA could simply chose to pay the breakup fee and just walk away from the deal. The breakup fee is a small loss compared to what they will lose by paying $17/share for MEH. Lots of things have changed since this deal was struck; $90 oil and a slowing economy means that NWA may have more pressing issues than what AAI may or may not do in MKE.

I would guess that the deal will get done, possibly with some minor tweaking of the ownership proportion between TPG/NWA, however, the longer the process drags out the more the stock price declines because the stock market hates uncertainty. I would not be a buyer at these levels because if the deal falls through MEH is a $6-$8/share stock. I think that the odds are in your favor to make money but you have a 15-20% upside with a 50% downside risk. In this market there are plenty of excellent companies in beaten-down sectors available at very attractive prices. These companies have more upside than MEH with much lower downside risk; you can even find some that will pay a nice dividend while you are waiting for the rebound. Be warned; if you roll the dice on MEH and the deal unravels you could be in a world of hurt.

 

[CitationLover]

I think that's exactly what they'll do, but the bid will be a big discount from the last one. It seems that the market is expecting a rejection from the DOJ, so we might find out soon enough. Best of luck to everyone that might get furloughed.

well at least we'll get to wear leather jackets.

 

[FlyWolf]

CL, I would say our pilot group were evenly split on the airtran deal.

For me personally I always wanted (and still hope for) the airtran deal to go through, and still think that all of our pilot group would have been much better with airtran than anyone else including nwa.

Oh, and have been reading the nice letters we have been getting from the union lately? 6 letters in total? what a joke and a waste of time.