MidEx

[CitationLover]

I thought that Midex sold their hedges in Q2 to show a profit for that quarter??? I agree that the AAI's shedule for Jan is way down... But its down in the entire system. It will pick back up in late Feb. They do this every year. The line value for our trips for Jan suck.. Most lines are worth less than 80 hours....... It will be interesting to see what happens with the 4 gates in MKE.. We can do a lot of flights with just 4 gates... Time will tell.. Good luck and hope you don't get the furlogh call... Furloughs suck..

no they adjusted the value of the fixed fuel contracts to reflect the higher market value, but they did this in Q1 and reflected the entire years worth of fuel hedges in that quarter.

for comparison, what is a typical mid level lineholder holding at AAI on the 717 in the right seat? ours is a mix of 3 day, 4 day trips, with 15-16 days off and a credit of about 78 hours. our credit values really went down in january though, our 3 month rolling average of credit is at 81 hours. I am sure through SAP1/2 they can move the credit up a little.

 

[Propsync]

i am for something that won't furlough me, but i also would like to keep the airline the way it is as i simply like the product, feel a little pride in being ranked #1, and i think the public definitely likes it as well. i think the majority of the pilots here feel the same way: FlyWolf, would you agree?

each focus group poll shows people will pay more for our service, why the f@#$ not charge for it NOW instead of waiting for a cabin reconfiguration? i have simply come to a realization that perhaps Tim's time might be passed and new blood would reinvigorate this place.

Well, what do you want at the end of the day, a job or bragging about how good your product is (even though it's unprofitable) and unemployed?

You seem to underestimate polls. As well as awards. You aren't alone. Management there has fed that crap to everyone. What nobody seems to understand is that at the end of the day, all that matters to 99% of the travelling public is whose cheapest. That's it.

 

[CitationLover]

Well, what do you want at the end of the day, a job or bragging about how good your product is (even though it's unprofitable) and unemployed?

You seem to underestimate polls. As well as awards. You aren't alone. Management there has fed that crap to everyone. What nobody seems to understand is that at the end of the day, all that matters to 99% of the travelling public is whose cheapest. That's it.

i'd like both. it's lasted for 23 years, why not 23 more?

as far as cheapest that's simply not true. most of our travelers to our high yield routes (LGA, DCA, BOS) are people who travel on someone else's dime. they could care less if the signature seats are $60 more. low yield, leisure routes i would agree with you and that's why the 80 with their configuration flies those routes. personally for me, if i had a 2+ hr flight, I'd pay the extra money for the leg room, etc.

 

[gt1900]

Citation... It can't last for another 23 years because fuel is near $90 a barrel.. And you have to be able to adapt to current day problems. Something MEH hasn't been able to do.... Heres a question for you. And again, I'm not trying to be a jerk... You trashed AAI pretty hard. You supported Timmy, and you listened to his rhetoric about the merger, and how bad it would be for MEH and MKE. Now your job could be in jeopordy because he is failing miserably as the CEO of MEH. Do you still believe him when he speaks? Or are you starting to believe he is in this just for himself? Lets say the deal with TPG fails, would you now support a merger with AAI? I think at this point its obvious that the employees and the city of MKE would have been much better off with a merger. After seing what is happening at MEH, are you starting to a sour taste in your mouth with the company, or are you still supporting them 100%?

 

[CitationLover]

Citation... It can't last for another 23 years because fuel is near $90 a barrel.. And you have to be able to adapt to current day problems. Something MEH hasn't been able to do.... Heres a question for you. And again, I'm not trying to be a jerk... You trashed AAI pretty hard. You supported Timmy, and you listened to his rhetoric about the merger, and how bad it would be for MEH and MKE. Now your job could be in jeopordy because he is failing miserably as the CEO of MEH. Do you still believe him when he speaks? Or are you starting to believe he is in this just for himself? Lets say the deal with TPG fails, would you now support a merger with AAI? I think at this point its obvious that the employees and the city of MKE would have been much better off with a merger. After seing what is happening at MEH, are you starting to a sour taste in your mouth with the company, or are you still supporting them 100%?

my beef was not with AAI, but with it's leadership (specifically JL). i never bad mouthed the airline or its product. i also only attacked when attacked myself. i back my company 100% otherwise i wouldn't be here, i'd quit. i imagine you back air tran similarly, even though they've lowballed you twice in your long, drawn out negotiations.

Tim is in this for himself, of course, but again, he would have triggered a golden parachute with Air Tran taking over and made out better than continuing and being fired a year into it (which based on TPG's history is a realistic occurrence). I know he is very conscious of his image in the MKE area, and firing people after a merger would not look too kindly for him. Especially after all the rhetoric regarding the air tran takeover.

Management showed their true colors to us with the fast one on trying to get a contractual extension and from there it has only gotten colder as 2008 approaches. This is all posturing for that and to me shouldn't be looked at emotionally. Do you froth at the mouth at your company for lowballing you in your two previous TA's? No, you move on, expect the next barrage, we're doing the same.

Fuel is another simple excuse as our fixed fuel contracts and dealings with NWA have actually insulated us from fuel price spikes. this was all positive stuff BEFORE the buyout, what's different in 2008 other than a contractual negotiation.

i would say the last couple of months has increased support (myself included) of air tran taking us over. i still see the current situation being a positive one, but more and more feel a leadership change may need to occur for that to happen. if the deal falls through though, i doubt air tran would even rebid for the company.

i hope that answers your questions.

 

[gt1900]

No I don't froth at the mouth with AAI's offers.. It would have been a big pay increase for me.. It just wasn't big enough. I hope that fuel prices drop in the near future. Because if we go into a recession, fuel continues around $90 a barrel , and the airlines start to lose money again, we may kick ourselves in the butt for not voting this thing in. It wasn't a bad TA, it just wasn't great. Airlines are starting to talk furloughes again, parking airplanes, and laying people off. If this continues, the contract we turned down may turn out to be a great contract.. I think the vote may have been different if guys would have known oil was going to hover around $90 and the airline outlook was starting to look bad again...

 

[CitationLover]

No I don't froth at the mouth with AAI's offers.. It would have been a big pay increase for me.. It just wasn't big enough. I hope that fuel prices drop in the near future. Because if we go into a recession, fuel continues around $90 a barrel , and the airlines start to lose money again, we may kick ourselves in the butt for not voting this thing in. It wasn't a bad TA, it just wasn't great. Airlines are starting to talk furloughes again, parking airplanes, and laying people off. If this continues, the contract we turned down may turn out to be a great contract.. I think the vote may have been different if guys would have known oil was going to hover around $90 and the airline outlook was starting to look bad again...

well i hope the new leadership team gets you guys what you deserve.

likewise, i hope we can do the same in 2008.

 

[asaflyer]

i am for something that won't furlough me

That's probably the most true statement ever made on this board. Good luck to everyone in this industry.

 

[Propsync]

i'd like both. it's lasted for 23 years, why not 23 more?

as far as cheapest that's simply not true. most of our travelers to our high yield routes (LGA, DCA, BOS) are people who travel on someone else's dime. they could care less if the signature seats are $60 more. low yield, leisure routes i would agree with you and that's why the 80 with their configuration flies those routes. personally for me, if i had a 2+ hr flight, I'd pay the extra money for the leg room, etc.

Fatal flaw- Past performance will not guarantee future results. Being behind on fleet and seating decisions is a large part of why Midwest is where they are today.

 

[Propsync]

double post

 

[PCL_128]

It wasn't a bad TA, it just wasn't great.

No, it was bad. Really bad.

I think the vote may have been different if guys would have known oil was going to hover around $90 and the airline outlook was starting to look bad again...

The vote would have been the same from me whether oil is $90 or $190. I don't subsidize fuel costs with my own income and QOL.

 

[PCL_128]

i doubt air tran would even rebid for the company.

I think that's exactly what they'll do, but the bid will be a big discount from the last one. It seems that the market is expecting a rejection from the DOJ, so we might find out soon enough. Best of luck to everyone that might get furloughed.

 

[fam62c]

Anyone got any insight on why MEH is trading around $14 a share when TPG is offering $17 a share cash, and the deal is supposed to close within a month or two. Sounds like a real easy way to make 20% or are there grumblings of the deal not being final?

Beyond the possibility that the DOJ could reject the structure of ownership lies another possibility: TPG/NWA could simply chose to pay the breakup fee and just walk away from the deal. The breakup fee is a small loss compared to what they will lose by paying $17/share for MEH. Lots of things have changed since this deal was struck; $90 oil and a slowing economy means that NWA may have more pressing issues than what AAI may or may not do in MKE.

I would guess that the deal will get done, possibly with some minor tweaking of the ownership proportion between TPG/NWA, however, the longer the process drags out the more the stock price declines because the stock market hates uncertainty. I would not be a buyer at these levels because if the deal falls through MEH is a $6-$8/share stock. I think that the odds are in your favor to make money but you have a 15-20% upside with a 50% downside risk. In this market there are plenty of excellent companies in beaten-down sectors available at very attractive prices. These companies have more upside than MEH with much lower downside risk; you can even find some that will pay a nice dividend while you are waiting for the rebound. Be warned; if you roll the dice on MEH and the deal unravels you could be in a world of hurt.

 

[CitationLover]

I think that's exactly what they'll do, but the bid will be a big discount from the last one. It seems that the market is expecting a rejection from the DOJ, so we might find out soon enough. Best of luck to everyone that might get furloughed.

well at least we'll get to wear leather jackets.

 

[FlyWolf]

CL, I would say our pilot group were evenly split on the airtran deal.

For me personally I always wanted (and still hope for) the airtran deal to go through, and still think that all of our pilot group would have been much better with airtran than anyone else including nwa.

Oh, and have been reading the nice letters we have been getting from the union lately? 6 letters in total? what a joke and a waste of time.