mesaba flow up and down

[f28pilot]

Food for thought:

Since the current retirement projections at mainline make this appear more flow-up than flow-down in the near future: Did NWA want this flow-up to help attract new pilots to the low pay at the bottom of the XJ list? The new grads that I talk to have their choice of CRJ operators to choose from and are picking based on better locations, signing bonuses, and promise of quick upgrades. Promise (false hope?) of a shot at the big leagues is cheaper than actually raising pay or giving bonuses. Just a thought - discuss amongest yourselves...does this delay some of the upward wage pressure that the current pilot supply/demand situation would otherwise require?



PS - On the subject of Avro replacements, I think that was done with 50 seaters already. Mention of the 900s as Avro replacements neglects the fact that they have been gone for some time now and that 36 new aircraft won't be here for quite some time. The Avros have been replaced already. If 76 seat aircraft "replace" anything it will be those aircraft that are parked as they come on line, otherwise by definition they would be expansion aircraft.

 

[ImbracableCrunk]

PS - On the subject of Avro replacements, I think that was done with 50 seaters already. Mention of the 900s as Avro replacements neglects the fact that they have been gone for some time now and that 36 new aircraft won't be here for quite some time. The Avros have been replaced already. If 76 seat aircraft "replace" anything it will be those aircraft that are parked as they come on line, otherwise by definition they would be expansion aircraft.

Uh, say again? Over.

 

[CFIfornow]

Food for thought:




PS - On the subject of Avro replacements, I think that was done with 50 seaters already. Mention of the 900s as Avro replacements neglects the fact that they have been gone for some time now and that 36 new aircraft won't be here for quite some time. The Avros have been replaced already. If 76 seat aircraft "replace" anything it will be those aircraft that are parked as they come on line, otherwise by definition they would be expansion aircraft.

50 seaters? Mesaba has only ONE 50 seat CRJ, that came on line before there was even talk of removing the Avros

 

[Occam's Razor]

You are the one that said your new works rules would require NWA to hire more pilots for the same amount of flying. That is a decrease in pilot efficiency, or "feather bedding" as its known in Union terms.

Airline staffing can be counter-intuitive to those who learn it here on FI. The increase in efficiency relates to the number of days each NWA pilot will have to work. The number of hard-hours per day should increase. (Block-or-Better makes that happen by itself)

That will result in more pilots. Before you get woozy trying to figure that out...understand that staffing is calculated and implemented based on the "whole-month" formula. Unavailabilites have been absorbed by the Zero Open Time rule. That changed too.

Here's a graphic example for you: I flew 26-minutes total hard time today, but will be paid for 5-hours. Having me fly more hard time each day will make me more efficient, and (thru the miracle of flight time limits) require NWA to hire more pilots.

So where are the DC-9-10's now?

Bud Lite cans. Note that all our B727's are gone too. Ditto the B747-100's, the B707's, and all our trusty DC-3's. Apparently, old aircraft get parked. Can you confirm?

You seem to have missed the point. That's ok. You're still eligible for the Flow Thru.

How do you know how many would have been needed if NWA wouldn't have put the Avro's in service? You can't possibly know what effect past deliveries have had on current orders.

I seem to recall that recently NWA announced that they were taking a good number of small narrowbody aircraft out of service at the same time they announced that they were putting a good number of large RJ's in service. Coincidence?

Yeah. Funny that. In '99, '00, and '01, we were parking DC-9's (the parking schedule came out in '99, and NWA has stuck to it ever since as each hull cycles-out), buying RJ's for our Airlinks...and hiring pilots.

Woozy?

 

[Occam's Razor]

So if this is a win, then why would NWA need a flowdown to Mesaba if:

1. NWA has at least 500-700 pilots retiring in the next 3 years
2. the new work rule changes will need MORE pilots

I don't know that NWA "needs" a flowdown. I do know that our MEC insisted on it...and got it. I'm not too sure management thinks it's a good thing. I also know I don't care what they think of it.

Do you?

Seems to me that there may be a MASSIVE park job in the future, and if this is true, the MEC can't say anyway due to disclosure. "Watch their feet" right?

I endorse the "watch their feet" policy!

Their feet aren't moving to park aircraft. Blockhours at the mainline are up, and forecast to increase. The surest sign of where their "feet" are headed is the good ol' APA system. Are you seeing displacements due to parking...or upgrades?

Their feet are moving to buy more widebodies. Another base for the A330 will increase the need for more pilots, and the B787 will increase pilot staffing
as well.

I will have to cop to a boo boo in the area of PERP predictions. I thought we'd see an uptick once the Claim Sale was in-the-bag. I'm still trying to figure out what's causing the hesitation. Age 65? Delays with the Targeted DC? It's something...but I can't tell exactly what.

Any ideas?

 

[f28pilot]

50 seaters? Mesaba has only ONE 50 seat CRJ, that came on line before there was even talk of removing the Avros

Mesaba isn't the only game in NWA feederworld.

 

[DoinTime]

Airline staffing can be counter-intuitive to those who learn it here on FI. The increase in efficiency relates to the number of days each NWA pilot will have to work. The number of hard-hours per day should increase. (Block-or-Better makes that happen by itself)

That will result in more pilots. Before you get woozy trying to figure that out...understand that staffing is calculated and implemented based on the "whole-month" formula. Unavailabilites have been absorbed by the Zero Open Time rule. That changed too.

Here's a graphic example for you: I flew 26-minutes total hard time today, but will be paid for 5-hours. Having me fly more hard time each day will make me more efficient, and (thru the miracle of flight time limits) require NWA to hire more pilots.

That was the most bull sh*t response I have ever seen. You're not fooling anyone Mark.....you're an idiot.

 

[NuGuy]

That was the most bull sh*t response I have ever seen. You're not fooling anyone Mark.....you're an idiot.

Heyas,

Err, maybe I missed the memo, but I always thought that more pay for less work was a "good thing" for pilots.

As to "featherbedding"....are you sh!tting me? This isn't exactly keeping a fireman on a diesel locomotive...its about giving back some semblance of QoL. I'm sure the company can handle it. Nice of you to be concerned for their welfare.

As Occam said, if the company will have to pay the money anyway, it's in their best interest to make you actually fly. If you actually fly, you run out of flight time instead of cooling your jets in the hotel for 30 hours on "ready reserve".

Eliminating the ZOT dumps about %6-8 of the flying BACK into the system as open time, instead of forcing it on pilots who don't want it. Not only will it allow computer bidding work the way it is supposed to, it will also increase staffing requirements, because NO ONE is picking up open flying right now.

The company is also moving back to more reasonable monthly maximums because they realize that a lot of pilots are looking at a 2 month Xmas vacation, and they CAN'T count on people pick up the time.

Nu

 

[ImbracableCrunk]

The company is also moving back to more reasonable monthly maximums because they realize that a lot of pilots are looking at a 2 month Xmas vacation, and they CAN'T count on people pick up the time.

Nu

Schnikeys! Are NWA pilots really close to maxing out 1000/1?

 

[NuGuy]

Schnikeys! Are NWA pilots really close to maxing out 1000/1?

Yep. Many of the monthly maxes have been set to 88 hours, and most hard fly up to or over. Even with vacation, lots of guys will get a nice xmas vacation.

Nu

 

[xjlifer]

Gotta love that kind of planning.

 

[SplitBar]

When do you estimate NWA will start hiring and how long is it going to take to finalize the XJ/NWA flow. I would imagine our preference forms will now include a "Flow to NWA" option. I'm not usually a skeptic but I will believe it when I am sitting in NWA Indoc.

 

[KingAir1985]

Are they going to make all of the XJ guys do the NW astronaut physical now?

 

[NuGuy]

Are they going to make all of the XJ guys do the NW astronaut physical now?

It's not that bad. I slid in 15 pounds overweight, deaf from 5000 hours in turboprops, and so much bad cholesterol that the oil and grease separated out to form it's own layer in the blood vial.

I wouldn't worry about it.

Nu

 

[Occam's Razor]

That was the most bull sh*t response I have ever seen. You're not fooling anyone Mark.....you're an idiot.

Yikes! I yield to your superior knowledge and experience with Northwest crew staffing. You obviously understand it much better than I do. The improvements will mean less efficiency and fewer pilots needed. You'd do well to keep your uber-Mensch analytical skills at XJ.

Given that, I'll expect you to say "no thanks" to the Flow Thru when your number comes up...right?

 

[PCL_128]

Dointime doesn't work at XJ. He's a PCL pilot.

 

[xjhawk]

wow I would like to ignore this post since I do not know much about this situation. But from what I understand........

No matter what happens, the flow will have to go up and down "what goes up, must come down" Good when times are good, bad.......you get the idea.

That this will help the hiring at XJ since it will not be an attractive option for those who want the chance at a back door at a major. Some will even look the other way at our terrible pay (say compared to skywest, horizon and a few others) and the fact that flying a Saab is rather uncomfortable.

That there will be a regulated flow to prevent the mass exodus of XJ pilots to mainline (from what I heard was 25% with more gates while we are growing from the 900's coming on property.

That those who do not want to go, do not have to, and when that happens, from what i hear, any flow backs would go behind them on the seniority list. Protecting their good pay and schedules on the 900.

That the older and more senior pilots might not want to go, since they will be making somewhere around 100 grand, and to replace that at NWA being a new hire would take years. Oh and thier 401k would be too valuable to leave as well. Lets say NWA hires four hundred, thats 100 mesaba pilots gone to NWA. figure 600 XJ pilots were here after bankruptcy, thats a lot of opportunity for the pilot group. if those 400 happened in a couple years, there would be a lot of pilots going to NWA.

 

[nwaredtail]

Yup, I think that many pilots don't know they are working for about 700 extra bucks a month by flying vs. retiring.(older green guys on the NB) Many don't want to lose the excess check (red guys) Many want to fly till 65 (Old Blue guys). The main thing is the PERP idea was a way to sell the TA to the junior guys by getting the weaker minded to believe that their would be 300-500 early retirements as told by Dollaway/Wheeler during the roadshows. Especially since NWA has "discretion" if it wants to let guys out early, it was a bait and switch job, as usual.

 

[SplitBar]

Compass Pilots need to have 30 months of service in to qualify for flow-up so senior Mesaba pilots who desire to flow-up could be in some of the 1st initial NWA new hire classes as soon as they start ramping up. Should be interesting to see who bids it.

 

[Blade Runner]

Compass Pilots need to have 30 months of service in to qualify for flow-up so senior Mesaba pilots who desire to flow-up could be in some of the 1st initial NWA new hire classes as soon as they start ramping up. Should be interesting to see who bids it.

I know the details are still being worked out, however, I can say with some certitude that if we (senior pilots who are 40-50+ years old) at XJ don't get some pay protection, (which I'm sure we won't), most will not go for the flow through at all, and the junior pilots will go in droves.
Ironically, the angst of watching these new hire wonder boys/gals with 600 hours flowing past 11000-20000 hour captains will be amusing to watch, in a perverse sort of way. But it all comes down to timing and choice in this industry, and not some convoluted, dillusional concept of a merit system.
I still remain grateful for all ALPA has done, this is still a long time in coming.