Just a couple points.
Mesa already has 59 new jets financed and scheduled for delivery this year. 46 CRJ's (I don't know the split between 700/900's and 200's, but a significant percentage are the larger aircraft) and 13 ERJ's. Those are only the ones paid for and confirmed for delivery right now, there are options for several more. A lot of those are for J4J, the rest for America West or Frontier Express. This is coming from a union rep I know who was at the table during the negotiations in PHX.
If the TA is signed, management at MAG can't transfer assets to another carrier, or start up any other carriers without approval of the pilot group. He can't sell or get rid of the props or the prop pilots them without getting our permission first, which isn't going to happen. That's the kind of scope this agreement has. Can JO go out on his own and start a carrier? Sure, but he is no longer able to use any of MAG assets, personnel the company credit rating to do so. If he wants to finance one he can only do so based on his own personal finances, not with corporate funds like he did with Freedom. Management can't even furlough under the new scope without pilot permission.
Do I think Johnny O would cost the company as much money as it would cost to close out the union pilots? Considering the bastard's recent history, heck yeah I think he would do it. The man has no accountability to his boardmembers, the majority of them he hand picked from companies he owned, that's how he became CEO after all. This is the same guy that wasted millions of dollars by furloughing a quarter of his pilot group last year for eight months for the sole purpose of spiting the union, there was no financial reason for it. He is also the guy who has wasted millions starting up another company like Freedom for the sole purpose of whipsawing Mesa pilots. He took a 26 million loss just last year in closing out CCAir, just to turn around and fly the exact same system with 1900's, closing profitable routes at the same time to do it.
If it is the price of getting ALPA off property, this guy would burn down his own house in a heartbeat and start building again from the ashes.
What this all comes down to is that ALPA and anybody willing to see the forest inspite of the trees knows that we aren't in a position to bargain for more right now. The biggest reason we aren't in a better position and are going to take it in the shorts again rests solely on the shoulders of the pilots who abandoned Mesa to fly for Freedom, may they rot. If none of those guys screwed over their comrades at Mesa, Freedom never could have gotten started. Without Freedom, JO wouldn't be in a position to shut down Mesa. Without Freedom, ALPA would be able to focus more on the QOL and pay issues and scope wouldn't be such a big deal.
No one can possibly overstate the long term damage those guys that left Mesa for Freedom did not only to their fellow pilots, but to all you guys complaining about this contract. Sure, criticize us for trying to get a little job security in our lives, but save your worst ire for those who screwed us all.