Looming Pilot Shortage

[pilotyip]

There has been a very big shortage of experience the last 15 months, although that has eased up in the last 4 weeks.

 

[Swass]

My cut and past won't work.....

According to the FAA the number of Private Pilots is going down. Not that that'll mean much to Avbug. Go look for yourself.

 

[Publishers]

Not to ever disagree with Avbug but I believe we will have a shortage not only of pilots, but mechanics, ATC, and other specialized fields. The reason for this is twofold.
Pilot starts after 9/11 both US and foreign. The ga numbers are significant because you do not become a commercial pilot instantly. Initially we were all private pilots. Secondly, worldwide demand and increases in business aircraft. Just look at the manufacturer order boards. Look at China and India as two examples. Look at a Dayjet with orders for 300 aircraft. There will be a skill and plane old shortage of personnel.

 

[avbug]

Initially we were all private pilots.

Not so. A substantial portion of the commercial workforce has military experience with NO civillian ligh airplane or helicopter experience, or knowledge.

Pilots are a dime a dozen, easy to train, and in the extremely unlikely chance that such occasion arises that an airline actually has a shortage of applicants...the airline will do as Quantas and Lufthstansa and Cathay and JAL do, and form an ab initio cadet program. That's just not happening. In fact, all of those airlines, as well as most other airlines throughout the world, have no shortage of resumes and applicants.

Airlines and companies which are strapped for pilots are not hurting because of a lack of pilots, but only for a lack of pilots with low standards.

 

[Way2Broke]

This question is really a bs question. AvBug, for example, defines a pilot shortage as a major airline not having pilot applicants on file. PilotYip's definition of a pilot shortage is one in which companies have to lower minimums to the bare bone to attract pilots. The truth is, there will always be shortages of pilots willing to do certain jobs, and that there will always be a surplus of pilots willing to do some jobs. Some people go with the flow, others make their own way. This will last until the last pilot is replaced by a computer (even if that is 200 years from now) The bottom line is that it is all about perception, and that is in the eye of the beholder.

 

[Swass]

But, there has been a decline of Private Pilots, which Avvie still says there's not. That was all I've said from the first post I made on this thread.

 

[avbug]

AvBug, for example, defines a pilot shortage as a major airline not having pilot applicants on file.

No, that's not how I define a pilot shortage at all. A pilot shortage is a shortage of pilots. There isn't one.

A shortage may be defined as a need that isn't being fillled.

A shortage may be defined as "not enough."

We're talking about not enough qualified pilots. We hear about companies not being able to fill their ranks because of a lack of pilots. What we're not hearing is that good companies have no lack of applicants...but companies that lack, who pay poorly, who operate under less than desirable conditions of schedule, maintenance, mission, or other reason, must lower their minimums to attract pilots willing to lower themselves to take the job. That's not a shortage of pilots. That's a shortage of applicants with low standards. There's a big difference, and it has nothing to do with major airlines.

But, there has been a decline of Private Pilots, which Avvie still says there's not.

I said no such thing. I said it really doesn't matter.

Moreover, the numbers are somewhat skewed. I'm a general aviation pilot, as are many other professional pilots. Whether the numbers of private pilots increase, decline, or maintain the status quo doesn't mean much. I did not say there hasn't been a decline in numbers...just that it doesn't matter. Lower numbers of private pilots isn't a shortage. Private pilots aren't filling a particular need, but serving their own. A shortage implies that we don't have enough for some particular purpose...we don't have enough people having fun on the weekends...that's a shortage? No.

Avbug: If U don't think there's a shortage now, do U think there will ever be one?

When you've seen me here repeatedly state that there hasn't been a shortage, there isn't one, and there won't be...what do you think? Read.

I've been hearing about the impending pilot shortage since I started flying. I haven't seen it yet. That the job market improved considerably and became a pilots market over the past year or two doesn't mean or imply that there's any shortage. Just good jobs to be had. It's turning the other way with changes in the economy presently, and it's once again becoming an employer's market. So it goes.

But there's no shortage.

 

[Publishers]

Short Versions
Avbug does not think there is or will ever be one.
I disagree-- somewhat

 

[puddlejumper]

Just ask the NetJet recruiters if they think there is a pilot shortage. Like Avbug said (and I paraphrase here), there's just a shortage of pilots who will accept a lower quality of life than they know they deserve.

PJ

 

[pilotyip]

When I get four resumes a week for a $34K starting job, that is a shortage. When I get 20 resumes a week for a 34K starting job, that is not a shortage. We went from 4 per week to 20 per week in the last 6 weeks. Something is going on.