Looming Pilot Shortage

[avbug]

typical liberal, always fighting for the for the rights of those burdened down by the mean captialist who pay us on a regular basis.

You're calling me a liberal for addressing the thread topic?

 

[pilotyip]

No addressing Cliff

You're calling me a liberal for addressing the thread topic?

No I was addressing the Cliff guy who I see in my office every week, the guy with the Nader bumper sticker. He was the one thread bumping.

 

[avbug]

Aah. I see.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I actually do NOT have a Nader bumper sticker, even though I did (mistakingly) vote for him once.

I do have a Greenpeace bumper sticker on my car, right next to the U.S. Marine Corps bumper sticker. Could lead to some interesting discussions.

cliff
GRB
PS-It is telling that I DON'T have a Nader bumber sticker, since I have about 40-50 of them on my car, and not a single Nader or Gore or Democrat sticker.

I DO have a "Ghawar Is Dying" bumper sticker. That's my most important one, at this time.

 

[pilotyip]

How about a McCain sticker

Hi!

I actually do NOT have a Nader bumper sticker, even though I did (mistakingly) vote for him once.

I do have a Greenpeace bumper sticker on my car, right next to the U.S. Marine Corps bumper sticker. Could lead to some interesting discussions.

cliff
GRB
PS-It is telling that I DON'T have a Nader bumber sticker, since I have about 40-50 of them on my car, and not a single Nader or Gore or Democrat sticker.

I DO have a "Ghawar Is Dying" bumper sticker. That's my most important one, at this time.

I have some Vets for McCain stickers in my office if you want one. Let you cover all the bases.

 

[Publishers]

There is no question that the economy of the last few weeks has created some changes in the number of people out of work.
The issue of shortages and such are much more a long term thing than a cyclic one. Furthermore one must address and look at the international aspects which includes all types of jobs not just the cream ones. If one is projecting such things, you must look at the pilot starts worldwide, the number of projected openings, retirements, shifts in world economic centers and then whether there will be people to do them. Obviously the shortages are ones of experience and skill levels. There are not shortages of people to fly GV aircraft or 747 for Northwest. The shortages are in those jobs which create the pilot pool building experience for those jobs. Changes in technology or similar things can change things as well. How many people got their experience flying for Airnet or Bankair who may or may not be there in the future. AS I said before, I am more concerned about A&P and ATC or other areas than pilots. The bloom is off of piloting and even off being an astronaut anymore.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

The latest headlines on the Global Pilot Shortage, which is worsening by the week.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121021574186076231.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...London_flight_stopped/articleshow/3023438.cms

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23593585-23349,00.html

more info...
Australia:
Australia has traditionally been one of the countries that exported pilots. I, as an American citizen, now have 0 chance of flying in Australia.

However, from the info I have read, AUS will soon be having to import pilots, which will increase the global shortage: They won't have any excess pilots to export, and they will be another country poaching pilots from those that have excess, like the US and Canada.

Japan Contract Jobs:
Some of the 767 operators have just been given a raise and better working conditions. They are reported to need twice as many contractors as they presently have, in the near future.

cliff
YIP

 

[avbug]

Australia has traditionally been one of the countries that exported pilots. I, as an American citizen, now have 0 chance of flying in Australia.

Actually, you, as an American citizen, not only could fly in Australia, but join the defense force, be trained as a pilot, serve a tour, and come home without ever relinguishing your US citizenship. You have zero chance of flying for Quantas.

When I lived there, I knew other "americans" who lived and worked there, too.

Australia is a poor example, having a very low population density and far less flying opportunities. If you can obtain sponsorship, however, the necessary visa, and find work, you can certainly go there to work. I did. Australia has traditionally long brought in skilled employment from all over the world...including the US, and including pilots.

This, from your first link:

The shortage is raising concerns that some pilots don't have adequate training or experience to deal with adverse conditions, especially in developing countries. In Brazil, pilots at TAM Linhas Aéreas SA last year overshot a São Paulo runway and smashed a new Airbus jet into a building during stormy weather, killing more than 190 people. The pilots were apparently confused about how to reduce engine power and apply reverse thrust.

Are we truly expected to believe that the airbus crew didn't know how to reduce power? Of course not. This is idiotic. Are we expected to believe that the airbus crew did not know how to apply reverse thrust? No...we know that's not remotely true. But somehow the brilliant, truthful, and accurate reporting from the Wallstreet Journal tells us that this mishap occured because such a shortage of pilot exists that only pilots so inexperienced that they can't figure out how to reduce power or apply reverse thrust get used.

Therefore we can safely give zero credibility to that article. Next...air india.

With apartments in New Delhi going for up to five hundred thousand dollars US, excessive population density and lower quality living, and internal disgruntlement by air india bypassing the seniority chain and giving direct entry to captains...any wonder that they're having problems? Not a pilot shortage, just a less desirable destination. Given the choice of flying a 777 for United, Cathay, Emirates, or other operators vs. Air India..you're not seeing a pilot shortage. Just not a lot of pilots who are interested in voing over there. No shortage in numbers, just in willingness to put up with Air India.

In particular, whereas Air India is a government operation with payoffs and kickbacks by recruitment agencies to certain officials,and artificial pilot numbers used to bolster requests for more aircraft in a corrupt system, don't get too carried away with using air india as a representative example of a pilot shortage. There isn't one.

There is no pilot shortage.

As for the Aussie article, it states that only 16,000 student pilots are trained globally a year. Ironically, here in the US alone we had over 84,000 student pilot certificates held as of last year (last stats available). Go figure. We have over 92,000 flight instructors in the US...yet mysteriously only 16,000 pilots trained worldwide? Are we to seriously believe the statistics claimed in the aussie article? No. We don't have a shortage of students, applicants, pilots, or instructors.

Japan Contract Jobs:
Some of the 767 operators have just been given a raise and better working conditions. They are reported to need twice as many contractors as they presently have, in the near future.

JAL and other Japanese operators aren't hurting for pilots. They're rejecting pilots. They routinely reject pilots for their body mass index (fat pilots) or for very exacting tolerances...they haven't a shortage of applicants. That they may need more pilots is really irrelevant to the issue of a shortage. A need which can be filled isn't a shortage. It's just a need. There isn't a shortage.

Likewise, even if a large influx of pilots enters Australia (unlikely, as there isn't a great need), it still doesn't equate to a shortage. There isn't one.

Fact is that pilot hiring is winding down, somewhat.

We don't have a shortage of pilots domestically, nor internationally. Where operators are having difficulty obtaining pilots, it's not for lack of pilots. Just a lack of pilots willing to work there.

 

[Publishers]

Even I got it Bug, there is no pilot shortage in your opinion!

 

[WabiSabi]

Hi!

I just had a revelation that makes all of this Pilot Shortage argument make sense.

From my point of view, with the idea that there aren't enough pilots (or soon won't be enough pilots) for the number of aircraft seats out there, I am right.

AND, for guys like Avbug who says there's no shortage, and there never will be, he is right also.

How can this be? By looking at the definitions of a shortage.

Avbug states:


So, what Avbug says, is that a shortage will only occur if a "good company" has a lack of applicants.

That will NEVER happen. Why?

There is NO "Good Company". None. Not one.

There are TONS of "Bad Companies": Poor pay, bad schedule, bad maintenance, bad mission, etc.

EVERY company is "Bad."

What about UPS. Nope. Bad. There are TONS of guys who won't fly for UPS because: They treat the pilots bad, no respect for the workers, forced to fly freight, have to fly at night, etc., etc.

FedEx? Nope. See above (except they treat their pilots better).

Emirates? Heck no! You have to live in Dubai and/or you can't commute.

Cathay? Nope. They have a "checking" system instead of training, and they make it REALLY difficult to make captain.

Delta? No. My buddy who flies for them even says its a "terrible" airline.

3M? No. Have to live in the frozen north (MSP) so it automatically is a crap job.

Gulfstream? No. Have to live in SAV, and it is a bad place to live, according to many.

NetJets? No. Have to have a 7/7 schedule, throw bags for rich guys, etc.

Firefighting or EMS/Air Ambulance? No. Too dangerous.

Etc., etc.

EVERY flying job out there is VERY, VERY BAD, according to MANY people.

So, therefore, a pilot shortage is impossible, because it requires a shortage of applicants for the "good" jobs that are out there. Since there are no good jobs, there can never be a shortage.

cliff
YIP

yeeeeah, that's a very scientific smattering of accounts as to why "there are no good flying jobs".

-having to fly airplanes at night???? OMG! such injustice!

-UPS and FedEx pilots having to fly freight??? that's crazy talk!!

-having to commute!!! bite your tongue boy!!!

-what?!? having to handle a suitcase or two when flying business jets? the flying profession is coming to an end!!!!!!

"my one Delta buddy says...."
"according to many...."
excellent citing of such reliable sources! yep, you've got it all figured out



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