Looming Pilot Shortage

[pilotyip]

There has been a very big shortage of experience the last 15 months, although that has eased up in the last 4 weeks.

 

[Swass]

My cut and past won't work.....

According to the FAA the number of Private Pilots is going down. Not that that'll mean much to Avbug. Go look for yourself.

 

[Publishers]

Not to ever disagree with Avbug but I believe we will have a shortage not only of pilots, but mechanics, ATC, and other specialized fields. The reason for this is twofold.
Pilot starts after 9/11 both US and foreign. The ga numbers are significant because you do not become a commercial pilot instantly. Initially we were all private pilots. Secondly, worldwide demand and increases in business aircraft. Just look at the manufacturer order boards. Look at China and India as two examples. Look at a Dayjet with orders for 300 aircraft. There will be a skill and plane old shortage of personnel.

 

[avbug]

Initially we were all private pilots.

Not so. A substantial portion of the commercial workforce has military experience with NO civillian ligh airplane or helicopter experience, or knowledge.

Pilots are a dime a dozen, easy to train, and in the extremely unlikely chance that such occasion arises that an airline actually has a shortage of applicants...the airline will do as Quantas and Lufthstansa and Cathay and JAL do, and form an ab initio cadet program. That's just not happening. In fact, all of those airlines, as well as most other airlines throughout the world, have no shortage of resumes and applicants.

Airlines and companies which are strapped for pilots are not hurting because of a lack of pilots, but only for a lack of pilots with low standards.

 

[Way2Broke]

This question is really a bs question. AvBug, for example, defines a pilot shortage as a major airline not having pilot applicants on file. PilotYip's definition of a pilot shortage is one in which companies have to lower minimums to the bare bone to attract pilots. The truth is, there will always be shortages of pilots willing to do certain jobs, and that there will always be a surplus of pilots willing to do some jobs. Some people go with the flow, others make their own way. This will last until the last pilot is replaced by a computer (even if that is 200 years from now) The bottom line is that it is all about perception, and that is in the eye of the beholder.

 

[Swass]

But, there has been a decline of Private Pilots, which Avvie still says there's not. That was all I've said from the first post I made on this thread.

 

[avbug]

AvBug, for example, defines a pilot shortage as a major airline not having pilot applicants on file.

No, that's not how I define a pilot shortage at all. A pilot shortage is a shortage of pilots. There isn't one.

A shortage may be defined as a need that isn't being fillled.

A shortage may be defined as "not enough."

We're talking about not enough qualified pilots. We hear about companies not being able to fill their ranks because of a lack of pilots. What we're not hearing is that good companies have no lack of applicants...but companies that lack, who pay poorly, who operate under less than desirable conditions of schedule, maintenance, mission, or other reason, must lower their minimums to attract pilots willing to lower themselves to take the job. That's not a shortage of pilots. That's a shortage of applicants with low standards. There's a big difference, and it has nothing to do with major airlines.

But, there has been a decline of Private Pilots, which Avvie still says there's not.

I said no such thing. I said it really doesn't matter.

Moreover, the numbers are somewhat skewed. I'm a general aviation pilot, as are many other professional pilots. Whether the numbers of private pilots increase, decline, or maintain the status quo doesn't mean much. I did not say there hasn't been a decline in numbers...just that it doesn't matter. Lower numbers of private pilots isn't a shortage. Private pilots aren't filling a particular need, but serving their own. A shortage implies that we don't have enough for some particular purpose...we don't have enough people having fun on the weekends...that's a shortage? No.

Avbug: If U don't think there's a shortage now, do U think there will ever be one?

When you've seen me here repeatedly state that there hasn't been a shortage, there isn't one, and there won't be...what do you think? Read.

I've been hearing about the impending pilot shortage since I started flying. I haven't seen it yet. That the job market improved considerably and became a pilots market over the past year or two doesn't mean or imply that there's any shortage. Just good jobs to be had. It's turning the other way with changes in the economy presently, and it's once again becoming an employer's market. So it goes.

But there's no shortage.

 

[Publishers]

Short Versions
Avbug does not think there is or will ever be one.
I disagree-- somewhat

 

[puddlejumper]

Just ask the NetJet recruiters if they think there is a pilot shortage. Like Avbug said (and I paraphrase here), there's just a shortage of pilots who will accept a lower quality of life than they know they deserve.

PJ

 

[pilotyip]

When I get four resumes a week for a $34K starting job, that is a shortage. When I get 20 resumes a week for a 34K starting job, that is not a shortage. We went from 4 per week to 20 per week in the last 6 weeks. Something is going on.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I just had a revelation that makes all of this Pilot Shortage argument make sense.

From my point of view, with the idea that there aren't enough pilots (or soon won't be enough pilots) for the number of aircraft seats out there, I am right.

AND, for guys like Avbug who says there's no shortage, and there never will be, he is right also.

How can this be? By looking at the definitions of a shortage.

Avbug states:

What we're not hearing is that good companies have no lack of applicants...but companies that lack, who pay poorly, who operate under less than desirable conditions of schedule, maintenance, mission, or other reason, must lower their minimums to attract pilots willing to lower themselves to take the job.

So, what Avbug says, is that a shortage will only occur if a "good company" has a lack of applicants.

That will NEVER happen. Why?

There is NO "Good Company". None. Not one.

There are TONS of "Bad Companies": Poor pay, bad schedule, bad maintenance, bad mission, etc.

EVERY company is "Bad."

What about UPS. Nope. Bad. There are TONS of guys who won't fly for UPS because: They treat the pilots bad, no respect for the workers, forced to fly freight, have to fly at night, etc., etc.

FedEx? Nope. See above (except they treat their pilots better).

Emirates? Heck no! You have to live in Dubai and/or you can't commute.

Cathay? Nope. They have a "checking" system instead of training, and they make it REALLY difficult to make captain.

Delta? No. My buddy who flies for them even says its a "terrible" airline.

3M? No. Have to live in the frozen north (MSP) so it automatically is a crap job.

Gulfstream? No. Have to live in SAV, and it is a bad place to live, according to many.

NetJets? No. Have to have a 7/7 schedule, throw bags for rich guys, etc.

Firefighting or EMS/Air Ambulance? No. Too dangerous.

Etc., etc.

EVERY flying job out there is VERY, VERY BAD, according to MANY people.

So, therefore, a pilot shortage is impossible, because it requires a shortage of applicants for the "good" jobs that are out there. Since there are no good jobs, there can never be a shortage.

cliff
YIP

 

[Amish RakeFight]

You guys are funny.

These topics get rehashed every 6 months.

 

[avbug]

From my point of view, with the idea that there aren't enough pilots (or soon won't be enough pilots) for the number of aircraft seats out there, I am right.

No, you're wrong. That's not been the case, yet, and won't be. Pilots get furloughed from time to time, but airlines and companies don't lack for pilots. You claim all companies are bad, and provide a little rationale. It's incorrect, but let's examine it anyway.

What about UPS. Nope. Bad. There are TONS of guys who won't fly for UPS because: They treat the pilots bad, no respect for the workers, forced to fly freight, have to fly at night, etc., etc.

That may be your opinion, but there are no shortage of applicants wishing to work for UPS, and it still remains one of the best paying companies out there, with some of the best security, the best expansion, and best benifits. It remains one of the golden rings for which many shoot and fail, because there are far too many applicants and the competition is stiff. Far from being a shortage, one may celebrate obtaining employment there because the competition is quite stiff.

FedEx? Nope. See above (except they treat their pilots better).

You've apparently not tried to gain employment with FedEx, either. Same as UPS...absolutely NO shortage of pilots wanting to get on board. Again, it may not appeal to you, but then don't apply. It won't affect FedEx or UPS in the least, as they have plenty of applicants.

Emirates? Heck no! You have to live in Dubai and/or you can't commute.

I don't hear a lot of complaints from Emirates pilots, nor are they desperate for applicants. They pay well, fly new equipment, and not everyone finds the middle east a distasteful place to work. Particularly places like Dubai.

Cathay? Nope. They have a "checking" system instead of training, and they make it REALLY difficult to make captain.

Yet despite having one of the most difficult technical interviews in the industry, have a very long line of applicants trying to get on board and no shortage of experience from which to choose. They pay well, have good benifits, a good schedule, and don't seem to be hurting at all for people who want in. Shortage? No.

Delta? No. My buddy who flies for them even says its a "terrible" airline.

Yet your buddy hasn't chosen to leave, and should he do so, then the airline will have no trouble whatsoever replacing him...because they have no shortage of pilots seeking to fly for them. Go figure.

NetJets? No. Have to have a 7/7 schedule, throw bags for rich guys, etc.

Netjets treats their pilots very well, they train well, and a week on week off schedule is found desirable by many. They have no trouble finding pilots who wish to work for them; they can choose. They are not short of pilots at all, and any shortage they might conceivably experience won't ever be for lack of pilots who want to work there, but for lack of training slots. They constantly hire, and no end of desirable and desiring applicants, and are not experiencing any shortage of pilots. Again, another bad example if you intend to show a company that is experiencing trouble finding pilots to fly for them.

Firefighting or EMS/Air Ambulance? No. Too dangerous.

You happened to pick one industry segment with which I have some degree of intimacy. First of all, EMS isn't dangerous; it's a 135 job which involves flying from A to B, and ambulance companies generally don't have any trouble filling their ranks. Fire has far more applicants than job openings; most of the jobs are not dangerous, though perhaps challenging, but I haven't seen anyone on the fireline yet that was in fear for their life. It didn't keep me away for much of my career, and I can tell you right now that getting into aerial firefighting is a tough nut to crack...lots of people want to do it, few have the chance. There is an excess of qualified applicants for every job that comes up, and it takes quite a bit (and a lot of years) to become a qualified applicant. Again, bad example, and whereas "fire" or "air ambulance" isn't an employer, but an industry segment, you're out of line to suggest that it's a bad employer. It's not. It's a type of job, and far from a terrible one. I liked it enough I did it for a good share of my flying career...I'm far from the only one.

EVERY flying job out there is VERY, VERY BAD, according to MANY people.

Then perhaps those people need not apply. But we're not talking about people's opinions of companies to whom they apply. We're talking about a shortage of pilots, and there isn't one. It's been brayed and cried about for years, but in all the caterwalling, there hasn't been a shortage yet. We're not going to see one. If the jobs are so very, very bad, then why are there so many applicants rushing to fill the open positions. The open positions are far less than the numbers of those wishing to fill them.

No, the companies that do cry about having trouble filling applicants are those who pay poorly, treat poorly, and it shows in the numbers they get. Some companies hire pilots so inexperienced, so unhirable elsewhere, and pay so little, that they seek out only those applicants who are willing to pay for their jobs. Some pay such pathetically small wages that only the most minimally experienced pilots will come aboard. Then they cry that they're having a hard time finding pilots, because they've already scraped the bottom of the barrel dry.

You've attempted to show that all companies are bad, and therefore have plenty of applicants. Non-sequitor and nonsensical, this description defies logic, and defies the truth. Companies which many find desireable have plenty of applicants, and it so happens this includes most of the examples you've used. You may not like them, you may have friends who whine and grind over them, but let's face it...they have no shortage of pilots, and despite what you may think, they're still considered top shelf operators in the industry. The best.

Perhaps your friends who are unsatisfied should take up underwater basketweaving, for their judgement lacks enought that clearly they've sought employment in the wrong industry.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

OK: Is NWA a "good" company, or a "bad" one.

If they're "bad", then any statistics don't matter and there's no shortage.

If, however, you think NWA is a "good" company, then why the disparity between now and the 1990s?

After a few weeks of opening their hiring window in 2007, they had 1200 applicants.

The last time they first opened the hiring window after not hiring for a while (in the '90s), after a few weeks they had 12,000 applicants.

So, last year, their applicant count was down 90%. That's NOT a shortage???

cliff
YIP
PS-I applied at almost ALL of the companies I mentioned in the last post. I think they're ALL "good" jobs, and I think the one I have is good, just not as good.

 

[avbug]

So, last year, their applicant count was down 90%. That's NOT a shortage???

When northwest had 90% less applicants, they still had more applicants than they needed. There was no shortage, nor were they parking aircraft for lack of pilots. Now they have a 1000% increase in applicants, and have an even greater surplus.

Sure doesn't sound like a shortage now, does it?

PS-I applied at almost ALL of the companies I mentioned in the last post. I think they're ALL "good" jobs,

A moment ago you tried to tell us they were all bad companies. In fact, you stipulated that all companies are bad. However, you weren't hired by any of those companies, were you? Seems they had enough applicants, and therefore...no shortage.

Nothing has changed. There is no pilot shortage. there has not been, nor shall there be.

Of course, based on the statistics you have provided, we are seeing just the opposite trend...a surplus of applicants. Not a shortage.

 

[stupidpilot]

Hi!



This trends nicely with the fact that the top 1% of the richest Americans now own 16% of America's wealth, double what they owned in 1980. You and I are paying much of their fair share of the tax burden!

AMT:
The Alternative Minimum Tax was instituted in 1969 to prevent very wealthy people from paying no income tax. If they were able to find enough loopholes to not pay Income Tax, the AMT would catch them and make them pay their fair share.

We just paid a BUNCH of AMT this year, and we don't even make $150K. What pisses me off, royally, is that there are a number of taxpayers earning $1mill+, who are still paying NO income tax, even with the AMT!

But what you don't seem to know smart guy, is that while the middle class is truly shrinking, the lower class is not growing, the upper class is. There are more rich people than ever, one in 30 Americans is a millionaire. So get over your little whining fit about the poor. People that work hard and earn their money are entitled to it.

 

[doog]

What about UPS. Nope. Bad. There are TONS of guys who won't fly for UPS because: They treat the pilots bad, no respect for the workers, forced to fly freight, have to fly at night, etc., etc.

I find it hard to believe that UPS and FedEx would force their pilots to fly freight... and at night! that's simply unconscionable.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I have NO PROBLEM with people who work hard for their money.

What I DO have a problem with, is Government Handouts.

The rich are getting away with murder, and those of us middle class people who are paying the AMT are providing the government handouts for them.

There are many rich people who pay NO income tax, either through illegal tax manipulations, or because they paid off the politicians, so that get new tax breaks to reduce their tax burden to 0.

That was what the AMT was supposed to do, was make sure EVERY American resident paid their fair share of taxes, and they aren't!

Oh, and I'm also concerned about the vastly growing numbers of poor, who ARE working hard, and getting poorer every year.

It's OK for our government to give to the rich, but mention giving to those that need it and cries of "Socialism" arise. The biggest benefactors of our government's Socialism is the Filthy Rich.

cliff
YIP

 

[avbug]

You're aware this is a thread about a shortage of pilots, right?

 

[pilotyip]

You're aware this is a thread about a shortage of pilots, right?

typical liberal, always fighting for the for the rights of those burdened down by the mean captialist who pay us on a regular basis. BTW back to the thread, the so called pilot shortage is going away in the US.

 

[avbug]

typical liberal, always fighting for the for the rights of those burdened down by the mean captialist who pay us on a regular basis.

You're calling me a liberal for addressing the thread topic?

 

[pilotyip]

No addressing Cliff

You're calling me a liberal for addressing the thread topic?

No I was addressing the Cliff guy who I see in my office every week, the guy with the Nader bumper sticker. He was the one thread bumping.

 

[avbug]

Aah. I see.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I actually do NOT have a Nader bumper sticker, even though I did (mistakingly) vote for him once.

I do have a Greenpeace bumper sticker on my car, right next to the U.S. Marine Corps bumper sticker. Could lead to some interesting discussions.

cliff
GRB
PS-It is telling that I DON'T have a Nader bumber sticker, since I have about 40-50 of them on my car, and not a single Nader or Gore or Democrat sticker.

I DO have a "Ghawar Is Dying" bumper sticker. That's my most important one, at this time.

 

[pilotyip]

How about a McCain sticker

Hi!

I actually do NOT have a Nader bumper sticker, even though I did (mistakingly) vote for him once.

I do have a Greenpeace bumper sticker on my car, right next to the U.S. Marine Corps bumper sticker. Could lead to some interesting discussions.

cliff
GRB
PS-It is telling that I DON'T have a Nader bumber sticker, since I have about 40-50 of them on my car, and not a single Nader or Gore or Democrat sticker.

I DO have a "Ghawar Is Dying" bumper sticker. That's my most important one, at this time.

I have some Vets for McCain stickers in my office if you want one. Let you cover all the bases.

 

[Publishers]

There is no question that the economy of the last few weeks has created some changes in the number of people out of work.
The issue of shortages and such are much more a long term thing than a cyclic one. Furthermore one must address and look at the international aspects which includes all types of jobs not just the cream ones. If one is projecting such things, you must look at the pilot starts worldwide, the number of projected openings, retirements, shifts in world economic centers and then whether there will be people to do them. Obviously the shortages are ones of experience and skill levels. There are not shortages of people to fly GV aircraft or 747 for Northwest. The shortages are in those jobs which create the pilot pool building experience for those jobs. Changes in technology or similar things can change things as well. How many people got their experience flying for Airnet or Bankair who may or may not be there in the future. AS I said before, I am more concerned about A&P and ATC or other areas than pilots. The bloom is off of piloting and even off being an astronaut anymore.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

The latest headlines on the Global Pilot Shortage, which is worsening by the week.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121021574186076231.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...London_flight_stopped/articleshow/3023438.cms

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23593585-23349,00.html

more info...
Australia:
Australia has traditionally been one of the countries that exported pilots. I, as an American citizen, now have 0 chance of flying in Australia.

However, from the info I have read, AUS will soon be having to import pilots, which will increase the global shortage: They won't have any excess pilots to export, and they will be another country poaching pilots from those that have excess, like the US and Canada.

Japan Contract Jobs:
Some of the 767 operators have just been given a raise and better working conditions. They are reported to need twice as many contractors as they presently have, in the near future.

cliff
YIP

 

[avbug]

Australia has traditionally been one of the countries that exported pilots. I, as an American citizen, now have 0 chance of flying in Australia.

Actually, you, as an American citizen, not only could fly in Australia, but join the defense force, be trained as a pilot, serve a tour, and come home without ever relinguishing your US citizenship. You have zero chance of flying for Quantas.

When I lived there, I knew other "americans" who lived and worked there, too.

Australia is a poor example, having a very low population density and far less flying opportunities. If you can obtain sponsorship, however, the necessary visa, and find work, you can certainly go there to work. I did. Australia has traditionally long brought in skilled employment from all over the world...including the US, and including pilots.

This, from your first link:

The shortage is raising concerns that some pilots don't have adequate training or experience to deal with adverse conditions, especially in developing countries. In Brazil, pilots at TAM Linhas Aéreas SA last year overshot a São Paulo runway and smashed a new Airbus jet into a building during stormy weather, killing more than 190 people. The pilots were apparently confused about how to reduce engine power and apply reverse thrust.

Are we truly expected to believe that the airbus crew didn't know how to reduce power? Of course not. This is idiotic. Are we expected to believe that the airbus crew did not know how to apply reverse thrust? No...we know that's not remotely true. But somehow the brilliant, truthful, and accurate reporting from the Wallstreet Journal tells us that this mishap occured because such a shortage of pilot exists that only pilots so inexperienced that they can't figure out how to reduce power or apply reverse thrust get used.

Therefore we can safely give zero credibility to that article. Next...air india.

With apartments in New Delhi going for up to five hundred thousand dollars US, excessive population density and lower quality living, and internal disgruntlement by air india bypassing the seniority chain and giving direct entry to captains...any wonder that they're having problems? Not a pilot shortage, just a less desirable destination. Given the choice of flying a 777 for United, Cathay, Emirates, or other operators vs. Air India..you're not seeing a pilot shortage. Just not a lot of pilots who are interested in voing over there. No shortage in numbers, just in willingness to put up with Air India.

In particular, whereas Air India is a government operation with payoffs and kickbacks by recruitment agencies to certain officials,and artificial pilot numbers used to bolster requests for more aircraft in a corrupt system, don't get too carried away with using air india as a representative example of a pilot shortage. There isn't one.

There is no pilot shortage.

As for the Aussie article, it states that only 16,000 student pilots are trained globally a year. Ironically, here in the US alone we had over 84,000 student pilot certificates held as of last year (last stats available). Go figure. We have over 92,000 flight instructors in the US...yet mysteriously only 16,000 pilots trained worldwide? Are we to seriously believe the statistics claimed in the aussie article? No. We don't have a shortage of students, applicants, pilots, or instructors.

Japan Contract Jobs:
Some of the 767 operators have just been given a raise and better working conditions. They are reported to need twice as many contractors as they presently have, in the near future.

JAL and other Japanese operators aren't hurting for pilots. They're rejecting pilots. They routinely reject pilots for their body mass index (fat pilots) or for very exacting tolerances...they haven't a shortage of applicants. That they may need more pilots is really irrelevant to the issue of a shortage. A need which can be filled isn't a shortage. It's just a need. There isn't a shortage.

Likewise, even if a large influx of pilots enters Australia (unlikely, as there isn't a great need), it still doesn't equate to a shortage. There isn't one.

Fact is that pilot hiring is winding down, somewhat.

We don't have a shortage of pilots domestically, nor internationally. Where operators are having difficulty obtaining pilots, it's not for lack of pilots. Just a lack of pilots willing to work there.

 

[Publishers]

Even I got it Bug, there is no pilot shortage in your opinion!

 

[WabiSabi]

Hi!

I just had a revelation that makes all of this Pilot Shortage argument make sense.

From my point of view, with the idea that there aren't enough pilots (or soon won't be enough pilots) for the number of aircraft seats out there, I am right.

AND, for guys like Avbug who says there's no shortage, and there never will be, he is right also.

How can this be? By looking at the definitions of a shortage.

Avbug states:


So, what Avbug says, is that a shortage will only occur if a "good company" has a lack of applicants.

That will NEVER happen. Why?

There is NO "Good Company". None. Not one.

There are TONS of "Bad Companies": Poor pay, bad schedule, bad maintenance, bad mission, etc.

EVERY company is "Bad."

What about UPS. Nope. Bad. There are TONS of guys who won't fly for UPS because: They treat the pilots bad, no respect for the workers, forced to fly freight, have to fly at night, etc., etc.

FedEx? Nope. See above (except they treat their pilots better).

Emirates? Heck no! You have to live in Dubai and/or you can't commute.

Cathay? Nope. They have a "checking" system instead of training, and they make it REALLY difficult to make captain.

Delta? No. My buddy who flies for them even says its a "terrible" airline.

3M? No. Have to live in the frozen north (MSP) so it automatically is a crap job.

Gulfstream? No. Have to live in SAV, and it is a bad place to live, according to many.

NetJets? No. Have to have a 7/7 schedule, throw bags for rich guys, etc.

Firefighting or EMS/Air Ambulance? No. Too dangerous.

Etc., etc.

EVERY flying job out there is VERY, VERY BAD, according to MANY people.

So, therefore, a pilot shortage is impossible, because it requires a shortage of applicants for the "good" jobs that are out there. Since there are no good jobs, there can never be a shortage.

cliff
YIP

yeeeeah, that's a very scientific smattering of accounts as to why "there are no good flying jobs".

-having to fly airplanes at night???? OMG! such injustice!

-UPS and FedEx pilots having to fly freight??? that's crazy talk!!

-having to commute!!! bite your tongue boy!!!

-what?!? having to handle a suitcase or two when flying business jets? the flying profession is coming to an end!!!!!!

"my one Delta buddy says...."
"according to many...."
excellent citing of such reliable sources! yep, you've got it all figured out



blah blah blah blah:smash: