Looming Pilot Shortage

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I just had a revelation that makes all of this Pilot Shortage argument make sense.

From my point of view, with the idea that there aren't enough pilots (or soon won't be enough pilots) for the number of aircraft seats out there, I am right.

AND, for guys like Avbug who says there's no shortage, and there never will be, he is right also.

How can this be? By looking at the definitions of a shortage.

Avbug states:

What we're not hearing is that good companies have no lack of applicants...but companies that lack, who pay poorly, who operate under less than desirable conditions of schedule, maintenance, mission, or other reason, must lower their minimums to attract pilots willing to lower themselves to take the job.

So, what Avbug says, is that a shortage will only occur if a "good company" has a lack of applicants.

That will NEVER happen. Why?

There is NO "Good Company". None. Not one.

There are TONS of "Bad Companies": Poor pay, bad schedule, bad maintenance, bad mission, etc.

EVERY company is "Bad."

What about UPS. Nope. Bad. There are TONS of guys who won't fly for UPS because: They treat the pilots bad, no respect for the workers, forced to fly freight, have to fly at night, etc., etc.

FedEx? Nope. See above (except they treat their pilots better).

Emirates? Heck no! You have to live in Dubai and/or you can't commute.

Cathay? Nope. They have a "checking" system instead of training, and they make it REALLY difficult to make captain.

Delta? No. My buddy who flies for them even says its a "terrible" airline.

3M? No. Have to live in the frozen north (MSP) so it automatically is a crap job.

Gulfstream? No. Have to live in SAV, and it is a bad place to live, according to many.

NetJets? No. Have to have a 7/7 schedule, throw bags for rich guys, etc.

Firefighting or EMS/Air Ambulance? No. Too dangerous.

Etc., etc.

EVERY flying job out there is VERY, VERY BAD, according to MANY people.

So, therefore, a pilot shortage is impossible, because it requires a shortage of applicants for the "good" jobs that are out there. Since there are no good jobs, there can never be a shortage.

cliff
YIP

 

[Amish RakeFight]

You guys are funny.

These topics get rehashed every 6 months.

 

[avbug]

From my point of view, with the idea that there aren't enough pilots (or soon won't be enough pilots) for the number of aircraft seats out there, I am right.

No, you're wrong. That's not been the case, yet, and won't be. Pilots get furloughed from time to time, but airlines and companies don't lack for pilots. You claim all companies are bad, and provide a little rationale. It's incorrect, but let's examine it anyway.

What about UPS. Nope. Bad. There are TONS of guys who won't fly for UPS because: They treat the pilots bad, no respect for the workers, forced to fly freight, have to fly at night, etc., etc.

That may be your opinion, but there are no shortage of applicants wishing to work for UPS, and it still remains one of the best paying companies out there, with some of the best security, the best expansion, and best benifits. It remains one of the golden rings for which many shoot and fail, because there are far too many applicants and the competition is stiff. Far from being a shortage, one may celebrate obtaining employment there because the competition is quite stiff.

FedEx? Nope. See above (except they treat their pilots better).

You've apparently not tried to gain employment with FedEx, either. Same as UPS...absolutely NO shortage of pilots wanting to get on board. Again, it may not appeal to you, but then don't apply. It won't affect FedEx or UPS in the least, as they have plenty of applicants.

Emirates? Heck no! You have to live in Dubai and/or you can't commute.

I don't hear a lot of complaints from Emirates pilots, nor are they desperate for applicants. They pay well, fly new equipment, and not everyone finds the middle east a distasteful place to work. Particularly places like Dubai.

Cathay? Nope. They have a "checking" system instead of training, and they make it REALLY difficult to make captain.

Yet despite having one of the most difficult technical interviews in the industry, have a very long line of applicants trying to get on board and no shortage of experience from which to choose. They pay well, have good benifits, a good schedule, and don't seem to be hurting at all for people who want in. Shortage? No.

Delta? No. My buddy who flies for them even says its a "terrible" airline.

Yet your buddy hasn't chosen to leave, and should he do so, then the airline will have no trouble whatsoever replacing him...because they have no shortage of pilots seeking to fly for them. Go figure.

NetJets? No. Have to have a 7/7 schedule, throw bags for rich guys, etc.

Netjets treats their pilots very well, they train well, and a week on week off schedule is found desirable by many. They have no trouble finding pilots who wish to work for them; they can choose. They are not short of pilots at all, and any shortage they might conceivably experience won't ever be for lack of pilots who want to work there, but for lack of training slots. They constantly hire, and no end of desirable and desiring applicants, and are not experiencing any shortage of pilots. Again, another bad example if you intend to show a company that is experiencing trouble finding pilots to fly for them.

Firefighting or EMS/Air Ambulance? No. Too dangerous.

You happened to pick one industry segment with which I have some degree of intimacy. First of all, EMS isn't dangerous; it's a 135 job which involves flying from A to B, and ambulance companies generally don't have any trouble filling their ranks. Fire has far more applicants than job openings; most of the jobs are not dangerous, though perhaps challenging, but I haven't seen anyone on the fireline yet that was in fear for their life. It didn't keep me away for much of my career, and I can tell you right now that getting into aerial firefighting is a tough nut to crack...lots of people want to do it, few have the chance. There is an excess of qualified applicants for every job that comes up, and it takes quite a bit (and a lot of years) to become a qualified applicant. Again, bad example, and whereas "fire" or "air ambulance" isn't an employer, but an industry segment, you're out of line to suggest that it's a bad employer. It's not. It's a type of job, and far from a terrible one. I liked it enough I did it for a good share of my flying career...I'm far from the only one.

EVERY flying job out there is VERY, VERY BAD, according to MANY people.

Then perhaps those people need not apply. But we're not talking about people's opinions of companies to whom they apply. We're talking about a shortage of pilots, and there isn't one. It's been brayed and cried about for years, but in all the caterwalling, there hasn't been a shortage yet. We're not going to see one. If the jobs are so very, very bad, then why are there so many applicants rushing to fill the open positions. The open positions are far less than the numbers of those wishing to fill them.

No, the companies that do cry about having trouble filling applicants are those who pay poorly, treat poorly, and it shows in the numbers they get. Some companies hire pilots so inexperienced, so unhirable elsewhere, and pay so little, that they seek out only those applicants who are willing to pay for their jobs. Some pay such pathetically small wages that only the most minimally experienced pilots will come aboard. Then they cry that they're having a hard time finding pilots, because they've already scraped the bottom of the barrel dry.

You've attempted to show that all companies are bad, and therefore have plenty of applicants. Non-sequitor and nonsensical, this description defies logic, and defies the truth. Companies which many find desireable have plenty of applicants, and it so happens this includes most of the examples you've used. You may not like them, you may have friends who whine and grind over them, but let's face it...they have no shortage of pilots, and despite what you may think, they're still considered top shelf operators in the industry. The best.

Perhaps your friends who are unsatisfied should take up underwater basketweaving, for their judgement lacks enought that clearly they've sought employment in the wrong industry.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

OK: Is NWA a "good" company, or a "bad" one.

If they're "bad", then any statistics don't matter and there's no shortage.

If, however, you think NWA is a "good" company, then why the disparity between now and the 1990s?

After a few weeks of opening their hiring window in 2007, they had 1200 applicants.

The last time they first opened the hiring window after not hiring for a while (in the '90s), after a few weeks they had 12,000 applicants.

So, last year, their applicant count was down 90%. That's NOT a shortage???

cliff
YIP
PS-I applied at almost ALL of the companies I mentioned in the last post. I think they're ALL "good" jobs, and I think the one I have is good, just not as good.

 

[avbug]

So, last year, their applicant count was down 90%. That's NOT a shortage???

When northwest had 90% less applicants, they still had more applicants than they needed. There was no shortage, nor were they parking aircraft for lack of pilots. Now they have a 1000% increase in applicants, and have an even greater surplus.

Sure doesn't sound like a shortage now, does it?

PS-I applied at almost ALL of the companies I mentioned in the last post. I think they're ALL "good" jobs,

A moment ago you tried to tell us they were all bad companies. In fact, you stipulated that all companies are bad. However, you weren't hired by any of those companies, were you? Seems they had enough applicants, and therefore...no shortage.

Nothing has changed. There is no pilot shortage. there has not been, nor shall there be.

Of course, based on the statistics you have provided, we are seeing just the opposite trend...a surplus of applicants. Not a shortage.

 

[stupidpilot]

Hi!



This trends nicely with the fact that the top 1% of the richest Americans now own 16% of America's wealth, double what they owned in 1980. You and I are paying much of their fair share of the tax burden!

AMT:
The Alternative Minimum Tax was instituted in 1969 to prevent very wealthy people from paying no income tax. If they were able to find enough loopholes to not pay Income Tax, the AMT would catch them and make them pay their fair share.

We just paid a BUNCH of AMT this year, and we don't even make $150K. What pisses me off, royally, is that there are a number of taxpayers earning $1mill+, who are still paying NO income tax, even with the AMT!

But what you don't seem to know smart guy, is that while the middle class is truly shrinking, the lower class is not growing, the upper class is. There are more rich people than ever, one in 30 Americans is a millionaire. So get over your little whining fit about the poor. People that work hard and earn their money are entitled to it.

 

[doog]

What about UPS. Nope. Bad. There are TONS of guys who won't fly for UPS because: They treat the pilots bad, no respect for the workers, forced to fly freight, have to fly at night, etc., etc.

I find it hard to believe that UPS and FedEx would force their pilots to fly freight... and at night! that's simply unconscionable.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I have NO PROBLEM with people who work hard for their money.

What I DO have a problem with, is Government Handouts.

The rich are getting away with murder, and those of us middle class people who are paying the AMT are providing the government handouts for them.

There are many rich people who pay NO income tax, either through illegal tax manipulations, or because they paid off the politicians, so that get new tax breaks to reduce their tax burden to 0.

That was what the AMT was supposed to do, was make sure EVERY American resident paid their fair share of taxes, and they aren't!

Oh, and I'm also concerned about the vastly growing numbers of poor, who ARE working hard, and getting poorer every year.

It's OK for our government to give to the rich, but mention giving to those that need it and cries of "Socialism" arise. The biggest benefactors of our government's Socialism is the Filthy Rich.

cliff
YIP

 

[avbug]

You're aware this is a thread about a shortage of pilots, right?

 

[pilotyip]

You're aware this is a thread about a shortage of pilots, right?

typical liberal, always fighting for the for the rights of those burdened down by the mean captialist who pay us on a regular basis. BTW back to the thread, the so called pilot shortage is going away in the US.