length of furloughs

[typhoonpilot]

This is an interesting thread and a good question for many of the furloughees. There is no right answer for all, it will depend on the individual airline. The first step will be determining the bottom active number after all furloughs are done. Then use the retirement rate for those remaining pilots to come up with an approximate guess of when you ( your seniority number ) will be reached. At USAirways the bottom furloughed pilot is looking at 8 to 10 years based on a 245 aircraft fleet.

Typhoonpilot

 

[G4G5]

It's been a while since I posted anything here.

Just "IMHO" but the furloughed folks at AA are probably in the best position for a recall. I base this on two important factors.

1. AA retirements, from what I understand no major retires more pilots over the next 10 years then AA. While I have not looked closely at the UAL/DAL numbers, post 9/11. I believe this is still true. This can be explained by the Crandel MD80 B-scale expansion era pilots begining to retire.

2004 = 267
2005 = 286
2006 = 363
2007 = 375
2008 = 500
2008 - 2015 increase's from 500 to 600 a year
2016 = 640

Based on just attrition alone AA will have to start replacing pilots at 20-25 a month starting in 2004. Sure their are plenty of caveat's (loss of the A300 fleet, sale of Executive in SJU, increased productivity in the new contract, yada yada) but you still can't get by the numbers. Keep in mind that a 777 capt's retirement generates a tremendous amount of training cycles, it's not just a one for one replacement.

2. The AA pilots still don't have a contract. All of the previous airline contracts have had some recall scheduled tied to the contract. Scope! AA mgt has reached the max ASM's under the scope and IMHO it has gotten to the point where mgt's hands are tied. It makes more financial sence($$$$) to give the RJ70 seat flying to mainline (increases Eagle's ASM, eliminates the sale of Executive in SJU, eliminates the need to pay 400+ pilots capt pay as required by sup CC, AA mgt does not want Eagle on the AA list). If this does happen then I would look for an expansion of the RJ70-90 fleet(currently Eagle only has 20 and you know mgt wants more) this would allow for a recall of the F'ed AA pilots at a very quick pace.

 

[Lifestyle]

Today (10/15) is my one year furlough anniversary from UAL. I imagine it will be at least 5 more years. Too bad I'm only protected for 7. I wish everybody the best and hope we all get back sooner then later.

 

[TWA Dude]

Today with AA third Q results they've announced the "temporary" parking of 27 MD80s and 14 767-200s plus deferred (cancelled) new Boeing deliveries so no new airplanes in 2004-05. New airplanes to arrive in 2003 are the 9 767-300s replacing the ex-TWAs and 2 777s.

Better add a few years to the furlough estimates.

 

[P3-Adub]

Yes,

The near future looks pretty dismal, so does my portfolio, however none of these posts consider what happens when the economy picks back up ??? Yeah Yeah yeah, when is that going to happen ? Prior to 9/11 and the sagging economy over a year ago, the forcast for passenger growth was pretty impressive, the FAA certainly was puzzled as to what to do over it, airport planners were screaming for more funding, and the manufacturers were planning new models. Now all we see growth in is RJs and this will not help the LGA, ORD, ATL, LAX, SFO traffic problems all that much once things pick back up. We will see minimum number of seats for these gateways to keep passenger volume high as compared to a glut of smaller traffic. The economy WILL recover eventually.

My personal optimistic, cup is half full, opinion is that there will be a quicker return than just retirement replacements once the economy starts cranking again. War will definitely affect the short term however the resulting affect after this just may be a stronger economy.

I truely feel that businesses and the individual traveler are waiting for better times directly affecting current revenues at the airlines. Yes we will have to redesign the model used to run the larger airlines however like I have said before, not everyone likes the cattle car approach to air travel and therefore there will be a demand for the traditional/improved large airline service. Ask any business traveler why they use brand XXX and you will hear that number of flights, frequent flyer miles, and international destinations are the main attractions. Right now cheap will suffice as everyone has tightened the belt. Sure Jet Blue offers great service with new planes, just read the Forbes article to see if they will be able to survive on first class service at below coach rates for too much longer. As far as Southwest, what an animal ! Can it last ? Again, a great option in a weak economy.

People have become accustom to flying rather than the rental car/Greyhound/Amtrack options and we WILL see a return in my opinion. Is there not going to be a baby boom with everyone staying home more these days ?

Bottom line is that in today's economic climate the forecast looks bad, who knows how it will look in 2 years. That being said, even 2 years is a long time. Best of luck to all of us !

 

[Lindy]

I would like to weigh in on this....

I am furloughed from Midwest Express. Although it is not a major, my one-year anniversary furlough date is fast approaching. I know other airlines offers recall rights for 7 years (or better), MidEx is only offering two years.

The doom and gloom of the daily news report is starting to wear thin....

 

[Redtailer]

Well, at NW life is a roller coaster. Up until a week ago we had a recall scheduled for next April. That was based on everything staying stagnant. Unfortunately, the econonmy got worse and it took those plans out.

This is just a guess, but if the economy has truly reached the bottom or at least stay the same then we should be looking at a recall at the end of 2003 or beginning of 2004 timeframe. Attrition is sitting around 200/yr. NW had already cut the pilot list to bare bones months ago so as these guys go out the door they will recall.