length of furloughs

[airbaker]

Just thought I'd start a discussion about the dreaded "F" word. What do you all think regarding the length of furloughs at the different majors. I know the dynamics are different at each one, with different rates of attrition, different financial conditions, etc... but I thought I'd take a non-scientific poll of what everyone thinks.

Personally, as a furloughee from AA I think we're in for a pretty long one. My best guess if we assume that we have really reached a bottom in the economy (and it hopefully can only get better), is a possible start to the recalls in mid to late 2005. I'm basing this on projected retirements, the draw down of the F-100's, and a resumption of aircraft deliveries in late 2003. Again, this is totally my most optimistic guess, but I have to keep hope alive! Fortunately I've found a really good gig flying corporate and can afford to wait it out.

So how about it guys/gals...what are your guesses for AA, Delta, UAL, NWA, Continental, Usairways...?

Best of luck to everyone.

 

[LiveFreeorDie]

Its all up in the air

Seems to me it depends more on the feds, the flying public, and the economy overall. I tend to be pessimistic. I see this economy slumping for a while. Especially if those **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**ed terrorists take another whack at us. Can you imagine an FO at AAL right now could be a twenty year FO... scarry.

 

[TWA Dude]

My best guess if we assume that we have really reached a bottom in the economy (and it hopefully can only get better), is a possible start to the recalls in mid to late 2005.

I agree with your assessment but I'll add that it's a just a best-case scenario. I think it's more likely that air travel will stagnate for a while longer. Additionally once recalls begin it'll take at least a year and half (according to AA's claim to training 50/month max) before the most junior furloughees come back. I'm thinking more like five years, minimum. Unfortunately.

In related news, today is the last day of work for 100 AA (ex-TWA) pilots. In two weeks an additional 88. In December another 42. More numbers TBA for early 2003.

 

[tbkane]

As the last guy on the list at DAL, I am thinking the same for us. We have 993 victims allready, and if they are out a year, and then they start a recall based on 50 a month, A good Christmas gift for me in 2005 would be a recall.

We would be down to about 7,700 pilots by then if we are all recalled.

 

[dogg]

And one more frightening thought: the big guys may not end up being as big as they once were. In which case recalls would be based only on retirements once the new lower number is reached. Some US AIR guys and some old NWA guys probably could tell you about 7-9 year furloughs.

 

[Rick1128]

You might want to talked to some of the old original Pan Am guys. Some were out from the early 70's until 1990.

 

[DougCorp-9]

It will be really long unless everyone contacts their representatives and prevents the retirement age from be raised to age 65. This is iminent people. Get on the phone ASAP.

 

[Jeff Helgeson]

Recal 2006; I flew Mr. Carty today

Airbaker and TWADUDE:

I will split the difference with you and say 4 years for recalls. It could be longer with the selling of Executive (Eagle - San Juan - Props) to create an RJ base at RDU. However, with the attrition rates scheduled for 2005, I believe there will be recalls in 2006, even with more shrinkage.

Today was an interesting day. It was the last day of a 3-day, with a 2 hour break at STL before an STL-DFW-STL turn to finish. I used the break to have my TWA ID cut in half and be replaced with a new AA ID, until I turn it in on 11-1-2002, due to my furlough. I arrived at the plane to meet Don Carty returning to DFW. I took the time to say hello and tell him my story:

I was hired by AA in 1989 as a bilingual/international flight attendant. I worked at AA for 5.5 years than tranferred to AE (Executive) as a pilot for 2 years, and have over 5 years total flying experience (4000 hours DC9/MD80) with TWA and am to furloughed Nov. 1st. (Okay, I didn't say all of that, but close enough).

I told him I was concerned about the recall rights and the "Green Book", that the recall rights could be negociated away by the APA and AA and that I wanted to return to AA in the future, since I have worked for AA, AE, & TWA for over 13 years! He responded, "you always have recall rights, and always will."

So, at least I got that going for me! ("Gungala! Gungla-abungala".........from Caddy Shack)

All my years of service, a smooth flight to DFW followed by a greaser landing and I am still hitting the bread line come 11-1.

To Mr. Carty's credit, He rode in coach with his 5 year old and put his wife in first class. I was at AA when Mr. "C" was in charge and saw him and his AA-groupies bump revenue passengers from first class!

It is not just the integration and being stapled to the bottom of the list, but the economy, possible war, and of course 911. (Please, don't send me any PMs stating I am lucky to have a job, I got a pay raise, and that TWA was going out of business anyway). I lost 4 friends and fellow coworkers on both AA jets. Two of which had been to a party at my house a number of years ago. There is no longer us and them, but just us. I wish all of us not just AA/TWA people, but all of us that work in the airline industry a better future.

The hotel van last night carried both AA and TWA crews to the hotel. We, the two crews, meet at the watering hole and the AA Captain bought the round......maybe things will improve!!!

So Airbaker, See what you started by using the "F-word." I am using the "F-word" now too, but it ain't furlough!!!

Cheers'

Mr. 163990!

PS: It's just an 80, nothing Super about it!.....It's like both kinds of music....Country and Western!

 

[lumax]

Just heard today that NW does not plan to recall pilots prior to Q4 2003. This is from a local news station.
Hopefully that will change and happen sooner

 

[F/O]

I'm gonna pull a date out of my a** and say winter 2004 for UAL, in preparation for the summer '05 flight schedule.

That's assuming we don't invade Iraq or that the effects of war are minimal, that the concessions deal passes, that we get the ATSB loan guarantees, and that we don't go into Chapter 11.

And that's assuming a helluva lot at this point...

 

[typhoonpilot]

This is an interesting thread and a good question for many of the furloughees. There is no right answer for all, it will depend on the individual airline. The first step will be determining the bottom active number after all furloughs are done. Then use the retirement rate for those remaining pilots to come up with an approximate guess of when you ( your seniority number ) will be reached. At USAirways the bottom furloughed pilot is looking at 8 to 10 years based on a 245 aircraft fleet.

Typhoonpilot

 

[G4G5]

It's been a while since I posted anything here.

Just "IMHO" but the furloughed folks at AA are probably in the best position for a recall. I base this on two important factors.

1. AA retirements, from what I understand no major retires more pilots over the next 10 years then AA. While I have not looked closely at the UAL/DAL numbers, post 9/11. I believe this is still true. This can be explained by the Crandel MD80 B-scale expansion era pilots begining to retire.

2004 = 267
2005 = 286
2006 = 363
2007 = 375
2008 = 500
2008 - 2015 increase's from 500 to 600 a year
2016 = 640

Based on just attrition alone AA will have to start replacing pilots at 20-25 a month starting in 2004. Sure their are plenty of caveat's (loss of the A300 fleet, sale of Executive in SJU, increased productivity in the new contract, yada yada) but you still can't get by the numbers. Keep in mind that a 777 capt's retirement generates a tremendous amount of training cycles, it's not just a one for one replacement.

2. The AA pilots still don't have a contract. All of the previous airline contracts have had some recall scheduled tied to the contract. Scope! AA mgt has reached the max ASM's under the scope and IMHO it has gotten to the point where mgt's hands are tied. It makes more financial sence($$$$) to give the RJ70 seat flying to mainline (increases Eagle's ASM, eliminates the sale of Executive in SJU, eliminates the need to pay 400+ pilots capt pay as required by sup CC, AA mgt does not want Eagle on the AA list). If this does happen then I would look for an expansion of the RJ70-90 fleet(currently Eagle only has 20 and you know mgt wants more) this would allow for a recall of the F'ed AA pilots at a very quick pace.

 

[Lifestyle]

Today (10/15) is my one year furlough anniversary from UAL. I imagine it will be at least 5 more years. Too bad I'm only protected for 7. I wish everybody the best and hope we all get back sooner then later.

 

[TWA Dude]

Today with AA third Q results they've announced the "temporary" parking of 27 MD80s and 14 767-200s plus deferred (cancelled) new Boeing deliveries so no new airplanes in 2004-05. New airplanes to arrive in 2003 are the 9 767-300s replacing the ex-TWAs and 2 777s.

Better add a few years to the furlough estimates.

 

[P3-Adub]

Yes,

The near future looks pretty dismal, so does my portfolio, however none of these posts consider what happens when the economy picks back up ??? Yeah Yeah yeah, when is that going to happen ? Prior to 9/11 and the sagging economy over a year ago, the forcast for passenger growth was pretty impressive, the FAA certainly was puzzled as to what to do over it, airport planners were screaming for more funding, and the manufacturers were planning new models. Now all we see growth in is RJs and this will not help the LGA, ORD, ATL, LAX, SFO traffic problems all that much once things pick back up. We will see minimum number of seats for these gateways to keep passenger volume high as compared to a glut of smaller traffic. The economy WILL recover eventually.

My personal optimistic, cup is half full, opinion is that there will be a quicker return than just retirement replacements once the economy starts cranking again. War will definitely affect the short term however the resulting affect after this just may be a stronger economy.

I truely feel that businesses and the individual traveler are waiting for better times directly affecting current revenues at the airlines. Yes we will have to redesign the model used to run the larger airlines however like I have said before, not everyone likes the cattle car approach to air travel and therefore there will be a demand for the traditional/improved large airline service. Ask any business traveler why they use brand XXX and you will hear that number of flights, frequent flyer miles, and international destinations are the main attractions. Right now cheap will suffice as everyone has tightened the belt. Sure Jet Blue offers great service with new planes, just read the Forbes article to see if they will be able to survive on first class service at below coach rates for too much longer. As far as Southwest, what an animal ! Can it last ? Again, a great option in a weak economy.

People have become accustom to flying rather than the rental car/Greyhound/Amtrack options and we WILL see a return in my opinion. Is there not going to be a baby boom with everyone staying home more these days ?

Bottom line is that in today's economic climate the forecast looks bad, who knows how it will look in 2 years. That being said, even 2 years is a long time. Best of luck to all of us !

 

[Lindy]

I would like to weigh in on this....

I am furloughed from Midwest Express. Although it is not a major, my one-year anniversary furlough date is fast approaching. I know other airlines offers recall rights for 7 years (or better), MidEx is only offering two years.

The doom and gloom of the daily news report is starting to wear thin....

 

[Redtailer]

Well, at NW life is a roller coaster. Up until a week ago we had a recall scheduled for next April. That was based on everything staying stagnant. Unfortunately, the econonmy got worse and it took those plans out.

This is just a guess, but if the economy has truly reached the bottom or at least stay the same then we should be looking at a recall at the end of 2003 or beginning of 2004 timeframe. Attrition is sitting around 200/yr. NW had already cut the pilot list to bare bones months ago so as these guys go out the door they will recall.