length of furloughs

[airbaker]

Just thought I'd start a discussion about the dreaded "F" word. What do you all think regarding the length of furloughs at the different majors. I know the dynamics are different at each one, with different rates of attrition, different financial conditions, etc... but I thought I'd take a non-scientific poll of what everyone thinks.

Personally, as a furloughee from AA I think we're in for a pretty long one. My best guess if we assume that we have really reached a bottom in the economy (and it hopefully can only get better), is a possible start to the recalls in mid to late 2005. I'm basing this on projected retirements, the draw down of the F-100's, and a resumption of aircraft deliveries in late 2003. Again, this is totally my most optimistic guess, but I have to keep hope alive! Fortunately I've found a really good gig flying corporate and can afford to wait it out.

So how about it guys/gals...what are your guesses for AA, Delta, UAL, NWA, Continental, Usairways...?

Best of luck to everyone.

 

[LiveFreeorDie]

Its all up in the air

Seems to me it depends more on the feds, the flying public, and the economy overall. I tend to be pessimistic. I see this economy slumping for a while. Especially if those **CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED****CENSORED**ed terrorists take another whack at us. Can you imagine an FO at AAL right now could be a twenty year FO... scarry.

 

[TWA Dude]

My best guess if we assume that we have really reached a bottom in the economy (and it hopefully can only get better), is a possible start to the recalls in mid to late 2005.

I agree with your assessment but I'll add that it's a just a best-case scenario. I think it's more likely that air travel will stagnate for a while longer. Additionally once recalls begin it'll take at least a year and half (according to AA's claim to training 50/month max) before the most junior furloughees come back. I'm thinking more like five years, minimum. Unfortunately.

In related news, today is the last day of work for 100 AA (ex-TWA) pilots. In two weeks an additional 88. In December another 42. More numbers TBA for early 2003.

 

[tbkane]

As the last guy on the list at DAL, I am thinking the same for us. We have 993 victims allready, and if they are out a year, and then they start a recall based on 50 a month, A good Christmas gift for me in 2005 would be a recall.

We would be down to about 7,700 pilots by then if we are all recalled.

 

[dogg]

And one more frightening thought: the big guys may not end up being as big as they once were. In which case recalls would be based only on retirements once the new lower number is reached. Some US AIR guys and some old NWA guys probably could tell you about 7-9 year furloughs.

 

[Rick1128]

You might want to talked to some of the old original Pan Am guys. Some were out from the early 70's until 1990.

 

[DougCorp-9]

It will be really long unless everyone contacts their representatives and prevents the retirement age from be raised to age 65. This is iminent people. Get on the phone ASAP.

 

[Jeff Helgeson]

Recal 2006; I flew Mr. Carty today

Airbaker and TWADUDE:

I will split the difference with you and say 4 years for recalls. It could be longer with the selling of Executive (Eagle - San Juan - Props) to create an RJ base at RDU. However, with the attrition rates scheduled for 2005, I believe there will be recalls in 2006, even with more shrinkage.

Today was an interesting day. It was the last day of a 3-day, with a 2 hour break at STL before an STL-DFW-STL turn to finish. I used the break to have my TWA ID cut in half and be replaced with a new AA ID, until I turn it in on 11-1-2002, due to my furlough. I arrived at the plane to meet Don Carty returning to DFW. I took the time to say hello and tell him my story:

I was hired by AA in 1989 as a bilingual/international flight attendant. I worked at AA for 5.5 years than tranferred to AE (Executive) as a pilot for 2 years, and have over 5 years total flying experience (4000 hours DC9/MD80) with TWA and am to furloughed Nov. 1st. (Okay, I didn't say all of that, but close enough).

I told him I was concerned about the recall rights and the "Green Book", that the recall rights could be negociated away by the APA and AA and that I wanted to return to AA in the future, since I have worked for AA, AE, & TWA for over 13 years! He responded, "you always have recall rights, and always will."

So, at least I got that going for me! ("Gungala! Gungla-abungala".........from Caddy Shack)

All my years of service, a smooth flight to DFW followed by a greaser landing and I am still hitting the bread line come 11-1.

To Mr. Carty's credit, He rode in coach with his 5 year old and put his wife in first class. I was at AA when Mr. "C" was in charge and saw him and his AA-groupies bump revenue passengers from first class!

It is not just the integration and being stapled to the bottom of the list, but the economy, possible war, and of course 911. (Please, don't send me any PMs stating I am lucky to have a job, I got a pay raise, and that TWA was going out of business anyway). I lost 4 friends and fellow coworkers on both AA jets. Two of which had been to a party at my house a number of years ago. There is no longer us and them, but just us. I wish all of us not just AA/TWA people, but all of us that work in the airline industry a better future.

The hotel van last night carried both AA and TWA crews to the hotel. We, the two crews, meet at the watering hole and the AA Captain bought the round......maybe things will improve!!!

So Airbaker, See what you started by using the "F-word." I am using the "F-word" now too, but it ain't furlough!!!

Cheers'

Mr. 163990!

PS: It's just an 80, nothing Super about it!.....It's like both kinds of music....Country and Western!

 

[lumax]

Just heard today that NW does not plan to recall pilots prior to Q4 2003. This is from a local news station.
Hopefully that will change and happen sooner

 

[F/O]

I'm gonna pull a date out of my a** and say winter 2004 for UAL, in preparation for the summer '05 flight schedule.

That's assuming we don't invade Iraq or that the effects of war are minimal, that the concessions deal passes, that we get the ATSB loan guarantees, and that we don't go into Chapter 11.

And that's assuming a helluva lot at this point...