Leave SWA for AA or Delta?

[General Lee]

I would suggest taking a bigger picture view to your decision. That is, financial stability. Southwest has never been sexy in the good times, but it is built for bad times. Delta, AA - they do really well when times are good; and times are very good right now. Regardless, Delta still has a negative 12.5 Billion dollars in liabilities. SWA has a positive 6 Billion in assets. That's a total balance difference of over 18 Billion dollars. As we have learned over the past decade, things can change quickly in this industry. SWA work rules and pay are nothing to shake a stick at. While the future at Delta and AA looks bright, and I hope they stay that way - you are trading a known quantity for an unknown quantity. My .02

Uhhhh, not really. DL's debt is down below $10 billion (down from $18 billion just 5 years ago), and so much money is being generated that the new target is $7 Billion by the end of next year. I don't think the World economy is all that great, but DL still made a $1.37 BILLION profit in one quarter! That is called a revenue and profit machine. DL management has out played almost every other airline team out there, had a smooth merger, and even thought "outside the box" and bought a refinery, which now is producing a profit.

SWA on the other hand doesn't really know what kind of carrier it is. LCC? Not like Spirit or Frontier coming up here. A legacy? The fares seem like it, but it doesn't want to charge for bags, even though AT still does... The latest growth spurt increased seats, but not planes, substituting larger 738s for outgoing 733s and 735s. More seats, fewer planes, that equals stagnation.

You are right about known quantity vs unknown. It is known that the 3 legacies will retire 15,000 pilots vs SWA retiring maybe 1000 over the next 10 years. What is unknown is how long it will take an FO to upgrade at SWA in the future. AT pilots will rightfully take bids to get that left seat again, and overall they are a young group. The bottom third at SWA may stay that way for years.

So, the choice is out there. 3 legacies that are making money, and growing stronger thanks to Consolidation, or staying put, waiting for years, hoping for a better next contract.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[EngineThunder]

Its easy to reduce billions in debt when you stop paying bills and force the pilots to take a 40% paycut. Are the Delta pilots back to pre BK wages yet?

 

[learherkjay]

Your talking about pure debt. I'm including total liabilities which is a higher number. Regardless, I'm happy Delta is making money despite all of the people that got screwed in the bankruptcy process (must be nice to not have to pay all of your bills). Regardless, it will take will take Delta 18 or more consecutive record quarters to match the overall financial position SWA is in presently. With the cyclical nature of this industry. It's a stretch.

Uhhhh, not really. DL's debt is down below $10 billion (down from $18 billion just 5 years ago), and so much money is being generated that the new target is $7 Billion by the end of next year. I don't think the World economy is all that great, but DL still made a $1.37 BILLION profit in one quarter! That is called a revenue and profit machine. DL management has out played almost every other airline team out there, had a smooth merger, and even thought "outside the box" and bought a refinery, which now is producing a profit.

SWA on the other hand doesn't really know what kind of carrier it is. LCC? Not like Spirit or Frontier coming up here. A legacy? The fares seem like it, but it doesn't want to charge for bags, even though AT still does... The latest growth spurt increased seats, but not planes, substituting larger 738s for outgoing 733s and 735s. More seats, fewer planes, that equals stagnation.

You are right about known quantity vs unknown. It is known that the 3 legacies will retire 15,000 pilots vs SWA retiring maybe 1000 over the next 10 years. What is unknown is how long it will take an FO to upgrade at SWA in the future. AT pilots will rightfully take bids to get that left seat again, and overall they are a young group. The bottom third at SWA may stay that way for years.

So, the choice is out there. 3 legacies that are making money, and growing stronger thanks to Consolidation, or staying put, waiting for years, hoping for a better next contract.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[redflyer65]

I would suggest taking a bigger picture view to your decision. That is, financial stability. Southwest has never been sexy in the good times, but it is built for bad times. Delta, AA - they do really well when times are good; and times are very good right now. Regardless, Delta still has a negative 12.5 Billion dollars in liabilities. SWA has a positive 6 Billion in assets. That's a total balance difference of over 18 Billion dollars. As we have learned over the past decade, things can change quickly in this industry. SWA work rules and pay are nothing to shake a stick at. While the future at Delta and AA looks bright, and I hope they stay that way - you are trading a known quantity for an unknown quantity. My .02

12.5 Billion with a B? That's a lot of debt to carry. Hopefully that won't send them back into bankruptcy. I guess there's a lot of pension obligations.

 

[vixin]

3 legacies that are making money, and growing stronger thanks to BANKRUPTCY

I fixed it for you.

 

[General Lee]

12.5 Billion with a B? That's a lot of debt to carry. Hopefully that won't send them back into bankruptcy. I guess there's a lot of pension obligations.

Red,

As Avi Saltzman stated in a Barron's article last year:

"Because of federal legislation, the pension doesn't need to be fully funded until 2031; Delta's obligation in the next five years is about $700 million annually. The value of its obligation depends on interest rates. If they rise, it could fall considerably."

So Red, when you make $1.37 Billion IN ONE QUARTER, it seems like you can handle payments like that. Bringing the overall debt below $10 Billion already saved DL $500 million per year in interest payments alone. And cutting the overall debt in half since 2009 is impressive.

Hey, since you guys are so financially sound, I bet you will get a huge raise in the next contract talks, probably the first day of negotiations..... Yeah, that's the ticket.....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[redflyer65]

General,

I'm not sure what our negotiations have to due with Delta's huge debt, but I hope you guys can service it. The interest payment alone must be huge. I was thinking about investing in Delta, but that kind of debt is questionable. Similar to GM's debt out of bankruptcy vs. Ford who has a strong balance sheet and never filed for bankruptcy.

How do you go thru bankruptcy and come out with Billions in debt? Interesting.

 

[General Lee]

General,

I'm not sure what our negotiations have to due with Delta's huge debt, but I hope you guys can service it. The interest payment alone must be huge. I was thinking about investing in Delta, but that kind of debt is questionable. Similar to GM's debt out of bankruptcy vs. Ford who has a strong balance sheet and never filed for bankruptcy.

How do you go thru bankruptcy and come out with Billions in debt? Interesting.

I fixed my post above to answer all your questions. The debt service was reduced by $500 million alone per year going below $10 Billion. And, here is the quote again from the Barron's Magazine about the pension obligations, just so you'll finally understand:


"Because of federal legislation, the pension doesn't need to be fully funded until 2031; Delta's obligation in the next five years is about $700 million annually. The value of its obligation depends on interest rates. If they rise, it could fall considerably."


So, 18 more years to service the pensions, and this is probably the start of many very profitable years (this year over $2.5 billion likely, which you make in 4 years), and rumor has it it's getting better and better...

I can see you like to dodge new contract questions. It's gonna get rough for you guys---remember, you're a LCC, right? GK probably wants to see that again. Good luck, we're all counting on you... I hope your union didn't promise anything during the SLI stuff???


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[redflyer65]

I can see you like to dodge new contract questions. It's gonna get rough for you guys---remember, you're a LCC, right? GK probably wants to see that again. Good luck, we're all counting on you... I hope your union didn't promise anything during the SLI stuff???


Bye Bye---General Lee

I didn't dodge anything. We were talking about the huge Delta debt. I'm not sure why YOU decided to talk about our negotiations (which has nothing to do with Delta). I know your concerned but I promise all will turn out well General. I'd worry more about Billions in debt vs. standard pilot negotiations. Ones a little bigger than the other but thanks for trying to spin it off the subject.

Gary also knows we have 41+ years of profits and 42 is right around the corner with big profit sharing. I'm sorry you guys had to go through bankruptcy with billions of debt on the other side of that. Good luck, maybe you could put together a couple of years of consecutive profits. I'm pulling of you!

 

[General Lee]

I didn't dodge anything. We were talking about the huge Delta debt. I'm not sure why YOU decided to talk about our negotiations (which has nothing to do with Delta). I know your concerned but I promise all will turn out well General. I'd worry more about Billions in debt vs. standard pilot negotiations. Ones a little bigger than the other but thanks for trying to spin it off the subject.

Gary also knows we have 41+ years of profits and 42 is right around the corner with big profit sharing. I'm sorry you guys had to go through bankruptcy with billions of debt on the other side of that. Good luck, maybe you could put together a couple of years of consecutive profits. I'm pulling of you!

Red, this thread is about a SWA guy thinking about leaving for AA or DL. I think talking about your upcoming contract talks is appropriate.

I like that you state there was debt on the other side of BK. Many Corndogs think you shed everything in BK, and obviously that is not totally true. Sure, some creditors lose out, and the credit rating goes down the toilet. Since then though, DL's performance has been stellar, cutting capacity, adding ancillary fees, having a smooth merger, and cutting debt quickly. $17 billion in 2009 to less than $10 Billion 4 years later, with $3 Billion more scheduled to be paid down by next year. To do all that and remain profitable is very impressive, and something that should be noted. Consolidation only helps the big 3, and you guys downsizing ATL after buying AT really helps.

Just making $1.37 billion in one quarter shows the revenue strength DL has. I'm glad you're pulling for us, but I'd be more concerned about maintaining your status quo this next contract, I think your boss is gunning for cuts. I think he wants more profits, not just consistent profits, larger profits. Good luck pal, fingers crossed for you guys!


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[redflyer65]

I think your boss is gunning for cuts.

Bye Bye---General Lee

Gunning for cuts?

You decide to make this up for dramatic affect? I've haven't seen any communication from Gary that he's ask for any cuts, and I work here. Although I've read many articles and 10k reports about Delta's debt. I think I'll invest elsewhere.

 

[General Lee]

Gunning for cuts?

You decide to make this up for dramatic affect? I've haven't seen any communication from Gary that he's ask for any cuts, and I work here. Although I've read many articles and 10k reports about Delta's debt. I think I'll invest elsewhere.

Too bad you didn't invest with DL, the stock is way up, over 100% for this year alone. It was $5 after the merger, and now is near $30 a share. I kept most of my 3700 shares given to me at the merger. How many SWA shares did you get at your merger? You really missed the boat again not investing in DL...

GK is looking for cuts, in overall costs. Plenty articles state just that. That usually means very little or no raise. I hope you guys do get raises, DL pilots don't want to be the ones only raising the bar, heck, the DL pilots and the C2K raise got you your big raise anyway. Well, fingers crossed for you guys anyway...


Bye Bye---General Lee

PS--invest in DL.... Everyone else seems to believe DL is doing great

 

[redflyer65]

Too bad you didn't invest with DL, the stock is way up, over 100% for this year alone. It was $5 after the merger, and now is near $30 a share. I kept most of my 3700 shares given to me at the merger. How many SWA shares did you get at your merger? You really missed the boat again not investing in DL...

GK is looking for cuts, in overall costs. Plenty articles state just that. That usually means very little or no raise. I hope you guys do get raises, DL pilots don't want to be the ones only raising the bar, heck, the DL pilots and the C2K raise got you your big raise anyway. Well, fingers crossed for you guys anyway...


Bye Bye---General Lee

PS--invest in DL.... Everyone else seems to believe DL is doing great

The funny thing is, I put both stocks up on the same chart and Southwest has outperformed. But obviously you didn't know that because you didn't bother to look. But thanks for bringing it up.

My SW stock is doing very well, so obviously I made the right decision. Big difference in the balance sheets. I hope you guys don't wind up back in bankruptcy with that much debt. Good luck.

 

[General Lee]

The funny thing is, I put both stocks up on the same chart and Southwest has outperformed. But obviously you didn't know that because you didn't bother to look. But thanks for bringing it up.

My SW stock is doing very well, so obviously I made the right decision. Big difference in the balance sheets. I hope you guys don't wind up back in bankruptcy with that much debt. Good luck.

That's funny Red, CNBC disagrees with you. DL had the best performance overall stock wise. Ah, at least you got free shares during your merger, right? Did you get a raise? An upgrade? Ohhhh Red, I'm sorry..... You can always apply to a big 3 carrier and turn your life around. Good luck bud!


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[madjack]

i am so glad the DL arrogance is back!

 

[JT12345]

Well, that order for $160 Billion worth of planes is for 3 Gulf carriers within 250 miles of each other. Some are for replacement, and some are for their own HOPEFUL growth. Geographically, the big 3 US Carriers are in a good spot. Most Americans wouldn't go all the way to the Gulf, then backtrack to Europe, or go to Asia via the Gulf. Those Gulf carriers are really affecting the European and SE Asian carriers, since the Gulf hubs are half way between Europe and SE Asia. Those airlines are really worried. The big 3 US Carriers protect their US hubs, and feed them well. Plus, airport infrastructures here in the States just don't have a lot of extra room in the big markets.

But, I can see your points. Retirements though will be huge, and getting in early in the hiring wave could change your whole career track, for the better. The pay is coming back, variety in flying is there, and upward movement with better QOL is assured with huge retirements. You may not believe you could pass a legacy interview or medical, so staying there might be the right choice for you. Other people though, they may want a change and want to avoid stagnation.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Oh the ego. How much has Delta hired the last 10 years? Still some good points though in between the other remarks.

My post was not about passing a legacy interview. It is about wasting one whether you pass or fail. It is a used up resource either way if you go to one.

ALPA seems worried about the foreign carrier orders. Take some of those quarterly profits and feed those politicians would be my advice. Feed them well.

SWA has more than 1000 retirements in 10 years. It is about double that, and that is about what they are hiring. Add in new rest rules too. I think they get larger after that. That is about what they have been hiring the last decade. Prior to that was 911 and they hired even more. Can't say that for the others. Sure and steady. Stability and control.

Still who knows what the future holds. There are a lot more carriers with bigger problems than SWA. Most I would even say.

Worry more about making it to 65 and take care of yourself.




________________________________________________________

Too bad you didn't invest with DL, the stock is way up, over 100% for this year alone. It was $5 after the merger, and now is near $30 a share. I kept most of my 3700 shares given to me at the merger. How many SWA shares did you get at your merger? You really missed the boat again not investing in DL...

GK is looking for cuts, in overall costs. Plenty articles state just that. That usually means very little or no raise. I hope you guys do get raises, DL pilots don't want to be the ones only raising the bar, heck, the DL pilots and the C2K raise got you your big raise anyway. Well, fingers crossed for you guys anyway...


Bye Bye---General Lee

PS--invest in DL.... Everyone else seems to believe DL is doing great

If you mean work rules then cuts would be correct. I would agree it is even needed. As for cuts or raises in hourly rates maybe not as important. A raise would not even be a problem IMHO. And it is the entire workforce that needs to be more productive per dollar. Notice I do not say per hour. Not just one group. It is not even productivity. It is just the crazy work rules that may not be the cause, but helped drive the legacies into bankruptcy. That is of course assuming the legacies do not get those work rules back again and they do not become the norm.

Keep in mind before the BK senior DAL pilots were looking at 300k+ a year along with many others like United. They are still quite far from that. The work rules and the bitching was entertaining to my regional eyes and ears at the time. New it would not last. Extra FA for long flights. Paying for FAs to get flight training. Crazy stuff compared to their up and coming peers.

Smart not being the one that wants to raise the bar. Don't be a ************************* though about it either, lol. Have fun out there.

 

[JT12345]

Dear fellow ALPA members,
After announcing more than $162 billion worth of widebody aircraft orders at the Dubai Air Show last week, Emirates Chairman Sheikh Al Maktoum and Etihad CEO James Hogan were both asked if they believed U.S. and European governments would allow their airlines access to airports on a scale large enough to accommodate so many aircraft. Hogan was somewhat measured saying “the economic impact of well over $100 billion in new aircraft orders clearly far outweighs any perceived negative impact on U.S. airlines operating internationally.” Al Maktoum was more direct: “We are buying a product from their countries. So why would they not allow us to fly to these airports? If they don’t, they can take their planes back.” In as many words, these men admitted that their carriers are attempting to secure support from our government by hinting at economic repercussions if they don’t get their way. I hope you’ll join me in standing up against this blatant threat to our industry and our careers.
The 150 B-777s and 50 A380s Emirates ordered last week are capable of carrying more than 80,000 passengers and 1.3 million cubic feet of belly cargo at a time. By the time all of the aircraft Emirates currently has on order arrive, they will be the largest airline in the world several times over. That huge amount of excess capacity will need to land somewhere and the United States, as the largest and most lucrative airline market on the planet, will be their principal target.
As Al Maktoum’s comment makes clear, these carriers are relying on our government to tip the playing field in their favor. Emirates is already one of the top customers at the U.S. Export-Import Bank, where it receives very large subsidies from our government to purchase planes like the ones noted above. Currently, they are also trying to convince the Department of Transportation to allow them to fly individuals whose travel is being paid for by the U.S. government – a move that runs completely counter to the Fly America Act. Not to be outdone, Etihad is still pushing forward on a new Customs and Border Patrol pre-clearance facility in Abu Dhabi, where no U.S. carriers fly. Over the next ten years, these airlines will be reaching out to our government time and again and asking for support as they invade our routes, undermine our industry, and weaken our profession; ALPA and ALPA-PAC are working to ensure those requests are denied.
This direct and aggressive attack on our careers cannot be allowed to go unchallenged. We are facing an avalanche of money from these carriers and we have to be able to fight back. Our unity in purpose and a fully funded ALPA-PAC are our greatest weapons in countering this very real threat; I hope I can count on your support for the PAC and your advocacy as we battle to ensure our industry stays strong and our careers secure for decades to come.
Sincerely,

Lee Moak
President
Air Line Pilots Association, International

 

[General Lee]

From a recent Motley Fool article:

"Fortunately, the U.S. carriers can hide behind favorable geography and strong U.S. hubs. While Emirates and the other Gulf carriers are well positioned to steal traffic from European and Asian competitors, their hubs cannot offer reasonable connections for most international routes to and from the United States. There are also very few routes like New York-Milan, where Gulf carriers could feasibly compete "away from home."

The top European and Asian airlines need to gear up for a costly battle with Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways. Otherwise, they could lose a large part of their high-value international business traffic. However, for the U.S. legacy carriers -- Delta, United, and American -- this threat is overblown."



Why would ALPA take this issue? It is probably important to watch these carriers, and they want to rally the troops. Finding the right lobbyists is important, but the European and SE Asian airlines are really nervous, the Gulf hubs are half way between them. But, watching them is smart.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[JT12345]

Perfect storm.

There is a huge pilot shortage coming and they raise the requirements in time and change the rest rules, lol. And this medical stuff about sleep is perfect timing.

Watch how quick it all rolls back.

They will get rid of the age requirement for right seat too I bet. Age 67 is around the corner. Kids will get paid to train. It is either that or hire a bunch of unknowns from another country. I can tell you that I am not impressed by the third world pilot judgment, and a lot of them get fired as line Captains and lucky before they hurt someone most of the time.

Remote control is a funny one. Airplanes are not monorails or elevators and UAVs are 300 times more likely to crash than a GA aircraft. An airplane can fly just fine by it self. The pilots are there and 2 of them at that for the mechanical failures, weather and strong winds. You either need no pilots when things are perfect. Systems good, nice weather, and light winds or 2 pilots to handle the problems. Not just 1 IMHO.

As for the international that makes sense they would go after those closer markets unless they already have. Politicians in this country are sold to the highest bidder, and you gotta wonder if it is the Manufactures and Oil based governments or US Airlines with record profits coming out of Americans pocket books. The local ones love their Airlines until they get calls about ticket prices from their voters. It has been a long time since a healthy airline environment, and maybe politicians realize how important that is. Or maybe they forget.

 

[DUBLINFLYER]

Now ALPA can ask for an increase in dues to fight the Gulf carriers