Leave SWA for AA or Delta?

[Ty Webb]

. . The movement at the legacies will be good for sure, but get in early if you choose that route. After a while you will have diminishing returns by going versus staying. Target your airlines and breakdown the retirements per year and see how long for upgrade at each if hired in 2014.

After that make a spreadsheet on expected earnings between your target airlines and what you make now. Include retirement match and maybe profit sharing (this one hard to guess). Do this for every year until retirement with totals to compare to your other target airlines.

I'm not sure how far from the bottom you are but keep in mind furlough cushion. Yeah we've never furloughed at Swa but with our current regime anything is possible to save a penny.

Good luck.

Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner . . .

OF course, there are some intangibles and some unknowns to factor in, such as likely domiciles, type of flying, and work atmosphere/corporate culture/labor relations.

Nice to see that the pendulum is finally swinging back in the other direction for this Industry/Profession. . . . been a long 13 years in that regard.

Ty

 

[waveflyer]

Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner . . .

OF course, there are some intangibles and some unknowns to factor in, such as likely domiciles, type of flying, and work atmosphere/corporate culture/labor relations.

Nice to see that the pendulum is finally swinging back in the other direction for this Industry/Profession. . . . been a long 13 years in that regard.

Ty

2nd this^^ +1
A long time indeed
!

 

[Daddy]

Good points, Bigeasy. Tough call. SWA is in freefall right now operationally, but things are never as bad (or as good) as they seem. Right now, the original poster has no decision to make. Once you have a job offer from another airline, then you will have a decision. SWA has been stable for a long time, but I think most would agree that the game has changed and that may very well be over...furloughs and bankruptcy are distinct possibilities and acrimonious labor-management relations are inevitable no matter where you go. It will all boil down to the offer that you actually get in hand and the circumstances involved. I'm at 8-9 years and I'm staying at SWA, but I'm older, live in base, have a lot more seniority, and am comfortable with the knowledge that I will never fly a widebody or go to faraway places. Good luck with the decision if and when you have to make it.

 

[DUBLINFLYER]

The best way to fly international is in first class with a cocktail in hand letting the likes of some of the disgruntled great unwashed on here fly the plane.

 

[Luv2BFlyin]

The best way to fly international is in first class with a cocktail in hand letting the likes of some of the disgruntled great unwashed on here fly the plane.

+1

I'm going to an airline that only flies one fleet type and will be forced to fly international.

 

[Dornier 335]

+1

I'm going to an airline that only flies one fleet type and will be forced to fly international.

Ryanair???

 

[JT12345]

Well.

I think about this too.

Some other factors that are not really mentioned...

How many people do you know and where at Major Airlines? How many interviews do you think you can get in your life time at Major Airlines? And then get the job? And then lose that second job for a third? You will be wasting networking resources chasing the Captain seat, but it might not be just that. I understand that. QOL

You will be going into the interview having a decent job already. Will your heart be in it wanting the job or will the uncertainess you show here blow the interview for you, and waste a future opportunity if things go bad at SWA. You go into an interview really needing the job and it will show sincerity.

Also these HR reps are a strange bunch. You don't know if it will be a + or a - that you want to leave one place for another. A lot of them don't want you to tell them that it is for the quick upgrade or the money or being based near your house. They want you to for some reason love their company above all else and be loyal till you die. It can get strange, subjective and random. Do you want to chance ruining a future resource now when it may be more important later? Seen many a old pilot burn bridges and resources only to end up in a smaller plane with a smaller pay check in the end years. And that is not so bad either to be honest cause you are still flying for a living. What is better than that? Out of a job is much worse.

Thing for me is with the pilot shortage there will always be jobs for the next few years if things go bad at SWA. Now this order of 160 billion by state run Arab oil foreign carriers is a scary thing for our international airlines and you have to always wonder what the politicians will do or not do to this business to screw things up.

These retirements are a sure thing, and a good point, but if things slow Legacies are such big airlines with mostly leased airplanes that things can stop really quick where SWA owns most of their airplanes, but is slow to change lately. SWA needs airplanes, but only wants used ones in favor of growing with new ones. They could have used those 30 airplanes now that they did not want in favor of the max later. They were going to grow some markets, but don't have the airplanes to do it currently. Heck GK just wrote SWA is a legacy now too. Negotiations are going on

Go. You are more senior to me. I hope more bail cause I am too old for this.

 

[learherkjay]

I would suggest taking a bigger picture view to your decision. That is, financial stability. Southwest has never been sexy in the good times, but it is built for bad times. Delta, AA - they do really well when times are good; and times are very good right now. Regardless, Delta still has a negative 12.5 Billion dollars in liabilities. SWA has a positive 6 Billion in assets. That's a total balance difference of over 18 Billion dollars. As we have learned over the past decade, things can change quickly in this industry. SWA work rules and pay are nothing to shake a stick at. While the future at Delta and AA looks bright, and I hope they stay that way - you are trading a known quantity for an unknown quantity. My .02

 

[-9Capt]

My suggestion...

Load all known data like...mandatory retirements, fleet growth, time to expected upgrade, compensation, retirement, domiciles, likely commute, etc, etc into a spread sheet and compare, side by side, the qualitative data and make an informed decision based on said data -OR- you can flip a coin.

My guess is you'll be correct 50% of the time regardless of which method you choose.

 

[General Lee]

Well.

I think about this too.

Some other factors that are not really mentioned...

How many people do you know and where at Major Airlines? How many interviews do you think you can get in your life time at Major Airlines? And then get the job? And then lose that second job for a third? You will be wasting networking resources chasing the Captain seat, but it might not be just that. I understand that. QOL

You will be going into the interview having a decent job already. Will your heart be in it wanting the job or will the uncertainess you show here blow the interview for you, and waste a future opportunity if things go bad at SWA. You go into an interview really needing the job and it will show sincerity.

Also these HR reps are a strange bunch. You don't know if it will be a + or a - that you want to leave one place for another. A lot of them don't want you to tell them that it is for the quick upgrade or the money or being based near your house. They want you to for some reason love their company above all else and be loyal till you die. It can get strange, subjective and random. Do you want to chance ruining a future resource now when it may be more important later? Seen many a old pilot burn bridges and resources only to end up in a smaller plane with a smaller pay check in the end years. And that is not so bad either to be honest cause you are still flying for a living. What is better than that? Out of a job is much worse.

Thing for me is with the pilot shortage there will always be jobs for the next few years if things go bad at SWA. Now this order of 160 billion by state run Arab oil foreign carriers is a scary thing for our international airlines and you have to always wonder what the politicians will do or not do to this business to screw things up.

These retirements are a sure thing, and a good point, but if things slow Legacies are such big airlines with mostly leased airplanes that things can stop really quick where SWA owns most of their airplanes, but is slow to change lately. SWA needs airplanes, but only wants used ones in favor of growing with new ones. They could have used those 30 airplanes now that they did not want in favor of the max later. They were going to grow some markets, but don't have the airplanes to do it currently. Heck GK just wrote SWA is a legacy now too. Negotiations are going on

Go. You are more senior to me. I hope more bail cause I am too old for this.

Well, that order for $160 Billion worth of planes is for 3 Gulf carriers within 250 miles of each other. Some are for replacement, and some are for their own HOPEFUL growth. Geographically, the big 3 US Carriers are in a good spot. Most Americans wouldn't go all the way to the Gulf, then backtrack to Europe, or go to Asia via the Gulf. Those Gulf carriers are really affecting the European and SE Asian carriers, since the Gulf hubs are half way between Europe and SE Asia. Those airlines are really worried. The big 3 US Carriers protect their US hubs, and feed them well. Plus, airport infrastructures here in the States just don't have a lot of extra room in the big markets.

But, I can see your points. Retirements though will be huge, and getting in early in the hiring wave could change your whole career track, for the better. The pay is coming back, variety in flying is there, and upward movement with better QOL is assured with huge retirements. You may not believe you could pass a legacy interview or medical, so staying there might be the right choice for you. Other people though, they may want a change and want to avoid stagnation.


Bye Bye---General Lee