Leave SWA for AA or Delta?

[General Lee]

Did someone fart?

Smells like Lubbock, I bet.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[jetflier]

Just imagine for a moment.

5.5-6 yr FO, early 30s, at SWA.
Still in the bottom 10% (believe it or not.)

Upgrade is a total of 20-21 years.

Morale is getting stinky here.
We've bungled Hawaii, Class 2 nav, our route structure, we're late.
Our CEO is more focused on saving money than growth.
Contract neg. are going nowhere.

Work rules are ok, pay is good.

Given the massive retirements coming, would you consider leaving for AA or Delta??

Why or why not?
Discuss.....

Delduah...cause we are more hospitable than them yankees.....

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Pro SWA: Strong Balance sheet, good contract, seniority you already have.
Con SWA: stagnation, the possibility/probability of another acquisition or merger

Pro DL: Well managed and operated, lots of retirements
Con DL: balance sheet, present payrates in a/c you are likely to fly, outsourcing of flying at both top and bottom, vulnerability of being at the bottom of the list.

Pro AA: Whole Lots of retirements
Con: Balance sheet, present payrates in aircraft you are likely to fly, Outsourcing at both the top and bottom, vulnerability of being at the bottom of the list, Likely rightsizing and drama from merger.

Other considerations especially if you don't have faith in the US economy

EK: Money and living overseas not so good but upgrade to widebody Capt quickly which makes you very employable worldwide

Spirit: Likely upgrade quickly and make almost as much as a WN F/O of same longevity and as an Airbus Capt you are easily employable worldwide.

Beech take the above, study the companies, do the spreadsheets, and make up your own mind what works best for you and your family. It never hurts to interview and you don't have a decision to make until you are offered another job.

 

[General Lee]

Pro SWA: Strong Balance sheet, good contract, seniority you already have.
Con SWA: stagnation, the possibility/probability of another acquisition or merger

Pro DL: Well managed and operated, lots of retirements
Con DL: balance sheet, present payrates in a/c you are likely to fly, outsourcing of flying at both top and bottom, vulnerability of being at the bottom of the list.

Pro AA: Whole Lots of retirements
Con: Balance sheet, present payrates in aircraft you are likely to fly, Outsourcing at both the top and bottom, vulnerability of being at the bottom of the list, Likely rightsizing and drama from merger.

Other considerations especially if you don't have faith in the US economy

EK: Money and living overseas not so good but upgrade to widebody Capt quickly which makes you very employable worldwide

Spirit: Likely upgrade quickly and make almost as much as a WN F/O of same longevity and as an Airbus Capt you are easily employable worldwide.

Beech take the above, study the companies, do the spreadsheets, and make up your own mind what works best for you and your family. It never hurts to interview and you don't have a decision to make until you are offered another job.

Ummmm Con for DL isn't really correct. Balance sheet is poor?

Associated Press May 10, 2013 6:04 PM
NEW YORK (AP) -- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its credit rating on Delta Air Lines Inc. Friday, pointing to Delta's improving financial position and its spending plans.

Standard & Poor's said Delta's financial profile is getting better, because its earnings are healthy and its spending in recent years has been moderate. S&P expects both of those trends to continue. The upgrade comes two days after Delta said it will start paying dividends again, and plans to return $1 billion to shareholders through those dividends and a stock buyback."



Present pay rates what??? Newhire pay is $68 an hour, $71 an hour in Jan, which is $30 more per hour than AA/US first year. Being at bottom of the list? Huh?? Huge retirement numbers that will come to fruition, 5000 in the next 10 years.

So, best management, highest new hire pay, no pay for type training, cleaning up balance sheet at $2 billion per year (unbelievable), profit sharing, variety in plane types and flying, unbelievable upward movement at end of the decade (800+ retiring each year for 4 straight years starting 2020), and smooth merger.

Outsourcing has been decreased at both sides of the spectrum. Mainline outsourcing via AK Air is being decreased, Korean Air just pulled code sharing on 90+ connections at DL, and 140 fewer RJs total will be flying for DCI within the next two years. Add 88 717s recapturing current DCI flying, and that's good.

Any more questions?

Oh, I have some more Cons for being a Corndog: boring, one plane forever, multiple leg days with quick turns, West Texas, unhappy 1/3 of pilot group, interesting merger, pay for type for new hires, and Islip.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

GL-

There have been lots of even keeled responses to the question- and you continue to sell DL and slam SWA. That's your deal. But in a final attempt to get you to shut up I offer you the "less is more" argument:

"You are never dedicated to something you have complete confidence in. No one is fanatically shouting that the sun is going to rise tomorrow. They know it's going to rise tomorrow. When people are fanatically dedicated to political or religious faiths or any other kinds of dogmas or goals, it's always because these dogmas or goals are in doubt."
Robert M. Pirsig

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

I really tried to write this for the benefit of the OP and stay away from the my airline is better than your airline crap. That being said GL It is interesting where you chose to edit the article you quoted. Here is a bit more:

Standard & Poor's said Delta's financial profile is getting better, because its earnings are healthy and its spending in recent years has been moderate. S&P expects both of those trends to continue. The upgrade comes two days after Delta said it will start paying dividends again, and plans to return $1 billion to shareholders through those dividends and a stock buyback.
The firm upgraded Delta's credit rating to 'B+' from 'B'. That is still "junk" or noninvestment grade, four notches below investment grade. The outlook is stable.
Delta said it will pay a quarterly dividend of 6 cents per share starting in September. It also plans to buy back $500 million of its stock by mid-2016. Those investor-friendly moves are unusual for airlines. Southwest Airlines Co. is the only other large U.S. airline with a dividend, paying a penny per share.

So the fact is your company's credit is currently still a junk bond rating. I understand that it is improving but that's based on DL's continued profitability. That means a new hire would be subject to the risk of anything that might affect DLs profitability which could be a fuel price spike, the worldwide economy, or even a flu stain affecting the international markets like the bird flu did. DLs management is dealing with the debt but the fact is today it's still there and poses a risk to a new hire pilot.

 

[superherc]

Pro SWA:

No PBS! QOL is good for lineholders. The flexibility to move, trade, or giveaway trip is unmatched at other airlines. Pay is good, and most are happy to be at Southwest.

Con:

Long upgrades, may buy another airline someday.

 

[-9Capt]

Con:

Long upgrades, may buy another airline someday.

Or they might get bought.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Next issue: Payrates in A/C you are likely to fly. I wasn't saying that DLs payrates are bad and your argument would have merit if we were discussing a guy leaving a regional but we aren't. Beech is on 6th year pay at WN $136/hr APC number. From that number he would be losing big money going back to year 1 DL pay and unless he upgrades quickly. According to APC that is unlikely because DL's pilot turnover via retirements is about 15 percent between now and 2019 which to me would indicate he would most likely be on the 717 the MD88 or Airbus for a while. With your current rates he will not get back to his current payrate even if he tops out.

 

[General Lee]

Pro SWA:

No PBS! QOL is good for lineholders. The flexibility to move, trade, or giveaway trip is unmatched at other airlines. Pay is good, and most are happy to be at Southwest.

Con:

Long upgrades, may buy another airline someday.

So wait, you would avoid a career move to a legacy airline due to PBS??? Whaaaat??? PBS is great for senior pilots, bad for the very junior. You get used to it and thanks to huge retirement numbers, you become senior in category quicker. Did you think the same about "evil auto throttles" or "evil VNAV?"

The Corndogs have stagnation, unhappy merger, same plane forever, multiple leg days, and boredom. Throw in Redflyer and Wave, and those red flags are too hard to overcome. Oh, and pay for your type if you don't already have it. (A shame)


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Next issue: Payrates in A/C you are likely to fly. I wasn't saying that DLs payrates are bad and your argument would have merit if we were discussing a guy leaving a regional but we aren't. Beech is on 6th year pay at WN $136/hr APC number. From that number he would be losing big money going back to year 1 DL pay and unless he upgrades quickly. According to APC that is unlikely because DL's pilot turnover via retirements is about 15 percent between now and 2019 which to me would indicate he would most likely be on the 717 the MD88 or Airbus for a while. With your current rates he will not get back to his current payrate even if he tops out.

Hey, I appreciate what you are trying to do, I just disagree with your findings.

I see what you are saying about leaving one airline at a current rate, and starting over. If you HAD to, DL has the highest "new hire" pay.(my point). With huge retirement numbers, 2nd and 3rd year pay can vary, because not every plane pays the same at a legacy (unlike SWA). Bigger planes pay more, but staying senior on a narrow body may also yield higher pay when swapping for bigger trips, etc. If you can jump up to a wide body in year 3, you could make more than you did before, do something totally different (long haul INTL), and see the variety in front of you, as you progress up the list as people retire.


Consolidation has strengthened the big 3 and SWA. Bag fees and pax fees now seem to be accepted, and that with consolidation has really created a viable industry. Sure, things could always go wrong, but the big 3 are cleaning up balance sheets, and hopefully turning the corner for good. Now someone just needs to compare upward movement, pay, bases, and QOL. That's it.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

Changing jobs has 3 factors:

1. Potential reward
2. Potential risk
3. Emotional/family issues

I tried to lay out the risk and reward as best and unbiased as I could. I'm sure the OP isn't the only person looking at a move.

For the OP given his rough seniority at WN he/she would upgrade in 2027
If hired at DL it would be roughly 2025. For that I assumed 0 fleet growth and mandatory retirements only and upgrade at the 50th percentile.

 

[slaquer5]

So wait, you would avoid a career move to a legacy airline due to PBS??? Whaaaat??? PBS is great for senior pilots, bad for the very junior. You get used to it and thanks to huge retirement numbers, you become senior in category quicker. Did you think the same about "evil auto throttles" or "evil VNAV?"

The Corndogs have stagnation, unhappy merger, same plane forever, multiple leg days, and boredom. Throw in Redflyer and Wave, and those red flags are too hard to overcome. Oh, and pay for your type if you don't already have it. (A shame)


Bye Bye---General Lee

Are you going to hit 20,000 (Twenty Thousand) 20K, post by the end of the year.


I think you can do it.

 

[General Lee]

Changing jobs has 3 factors:

1. Potential reward
2. Potential risk
3. Emotional/family issues

I tried to lay out the risk and reward as best and unbiased as I could. I'm sure the OP isn't the only person looking at a move.

For the OP given his rough seniority at WN he/she would upgrade in 2027
If hired at DL it would be roughly 2025. For that I assumed 0 fleet growth and mandatory retirements only and upgrade at the 50th percentile.

You are missing a lot. At a legacy, wide body FO goes senior. Ever seen a DL A330 or 744/777 crew? The FOs can usually hold 737 Capt easily, but don't want to fly domestic. The 50th percentile means little at DL.

If a new hire gets hired this next year at DL, I would think he'd hold 717 Capt by 2020. There will be 800+ Capts leaving PER YEAR from 2020-2023, then 650 in 2024. They may leave early, those numbers are for age 65, and not everyone is going there, especially senior FNWA pilots that still have a pension, they may leave around age 63 or so. Throw in the fact that 200 "new" planes coming over the next few years (88 717s, 100 739ERs, 30 A321s, 10 A330s, 787s still on order supposedly coming by 2020), while losing 17 DC95s, and some older 757s that may be slowed to parking due to recent profits.

I don't think you can compare DL and SWA. DL has huge upside potential due to growth, retirements, and strengthening balance sheet. SWA has a great balance sheet, but has stagnation ahead, a group of unhappy merged pilots, and that same group is fairly young overall, meaning fewer retirements and stagnation.

Potential reward at all 3 legacies is GREAT, with risk decreasing due to Consolidation. The more retirements, the better QOL or financial rewards, helping with emotional/family issues. Being stuck at the bottom for years due to few retirements, is bad, regardless of the pay, which will be equalled by the legacies anyway shortly.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Are you going to hit 20,000 (Twenty Thousand) 20K, post by the end of the year.


I think you can do it.

This is how one responds when they can't really debate anymore, They got NOTHIN, so they go for "the post total." Classic! Thanks...


Bye Bye---General Lee