Leave Airtran for United??

[shuttlepilot]

I just talked with a 767 guy from united in IAD, we were both trying to get ot ATL. He had just recently upgraded, still could not hold a line on the 76. Been at UA for 17 years!!

 

[BigMeat]

United = Forever upgrade (longer working for retirement), no airplane orders, no real scope protection.

Airtran= 4year upgrade, scope, recession coming (safer bet), 60 airplanes on order

Culture at Airtran is younger and more fun. United is old and disgruntled.

Andy,

Do you really think that because of a bad economy there will be less airplanes? Maybe less mainline airplanes for United. You sold out your scope relief.

 

[Andy]

Andy,

Do you really think that because of a bad economy there will be less airplanes?

Absolutely. Airlines are either going to park a lot of airplanes or they will die. Airlines will be operating at a loss for the next several years and it won't be easy for them to get lines of credit, unlike post 911.

You fail to understand how deep this recession will be. (Warren Buffett called it a recession this morning http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080303/buffett_economy.html )

The worldwide tightening of credit is going to make this recession much deeper than previous ones. The banking system itself is under considerable strain. I'll assume that you did not watch Bernanke's testimony last week where he stated to Congress that there will be bank failures. For him to make such a statement means that there are severe problems in the banking system. (You know who Bernanke is, right?)
Citibank, Washington Mutual, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and several other big players are in serious trouble. The amount of assets that they've shifted over to level 3 (mark to model; otherwise know as mark to fantasy) is growing daily. For all practical purposes, Citibank is insolvent. They will likely not fail outright due to their size, but they will need to be recapitalized. Again.

In light of all this, you expect air travel to remain constant or grow? You really need to learn the economics of this industry. Air travel is a discretionary expense; it's not a necessity. http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=comm&id=news/SLOW02278.xml

In Airtran's case, they may have a saving grace. They have the good fortune of competing against Delta, which seems to have gone on a spending spree just when the economy's starting to turn south.

 

[maxblast72]

Airtran had tons of attrition back in 2000 and 2001. Obviously back then, no one would have guessed that leaving Airtran would have cost them so much money. Here we are 8 years later, and the same attrition numbers are happening again as the legacies are in full hiring mode.

Not that Airtran is the best or worst company to work for in 2008, but the last place I want to be with a slowing economy and $100/barrel oil is the bottom 10% of any legacies' seniority list. Airtran handled the last airline downturn in 2002 and 2003 pretty well, and I imagine they will do alright through this downturn as well.

 

[Yuppyguppy]

United = Forever upgrade (longer working for retirement), no airplane orders, no real scope protection.

Airtran= 4year upgrade, scope, recession coming (safer bet), 60 airplanes on order

Culture at Airtran is younger and more fun. United is old and disgruntled.

Andy,

Do you really think that because of a bad economy there will be less airplanes? Maybe less mainline airplanes for United. You sold out your scope relief.

UMm you just sold 2 more planes today...4 year upgrade??? what are you smoking?

 

[Andy]

Airtran handled the last airline downturn in 2002 and 2003 pretty well, and I imagine they will do alright through this downturn as well.

Airtran had a much greater cost advantage over the legacies back then. Legacies have reduced costs to match Airtran and Jetblue, so it won't be quite as easy for them.
Airtran has little debt, so they're not in bad shape to weather the downturn as long as they don't take delivery of a bunch of new aircraft.

 

[XShuttle]

I just talked with a 767 guy from united in IAD, we were both trying to get ot ATL. He had just recently upgraded, still could not hold a line on the 76. Been at UA for 17 years!!

Just to clarify he was a Captain not an F/O

 

[Andy]

UMm you just sold 2 more planes today...4 year upgrade??? what are you smoking?

I would consider that to be a smart move on Airtran's part. Increasing fleet size right now is foolish.

I don't see this downturn as being one where some airlines are winners and others are losers. Every airline is going to have to curtail service. The mark of a 'good' carrier will not be upgrades, but lack of downgrades.

 

[contrail67]

I just talked with a 767 guy from united in IAD, we were both trying to get ot ATL. He had just recently upgraded, still could not hold a line on the 76. Been at UA for 17 years!!

I bet he could have held 737 or 320 Captain somewhere else before 767 Captain....don't get hung up on the 17 year thing...some of that is his choice and QOL.

 

[pilotgolfer]

I bet he could have held 737 or 320 Captain somewhere else before 767 Captain....don't get hung up on the 17 year thing...some of that is his choice and QOL.

The junior Captain on the 737 was hired in 1998 (give or take) and he's held that position for the last 3 years. Thats more like a 7 year upgrade. All the upgrade numbers at United are going to be schewed (how do you spell that...I'm sure Andy will chime in) by the 6 year break in hiring.

 

[contrail67]

I think Andy is still out on Mil leave...last I knew so you are right....the whole furlough thing mixed things up alot.

Good news is that they are still hiring 250 by June and then pick it up again in the fall.

 

[maxblast72]

UMm you just sold 2 more planes today...4 year upgrade??? what are you smoking?

It depends on the year you were hired. For the latest bid that just closed two weeks ago, the most junior Captain was a December of 2004 hire and will go to class in April making him about 3 1/2 years longevity entering class.

I would guess most 2005 Airtran newhires are looking at around 3.5-4 year upgrades, with 2006 Airtran newhires looking at about 5 year upgrades based on a delivery schedule of about 8-10 aircraft per year for the next few years. 8-10 Aircraft deliveries per year only make about 50-60 new Captains every years so the upgrades times will definitely be increasing.

 

[Andy]

I think Andy is still out on Mil leave...last I knew so you are right....the whole furlough thing mixed things up alot.

Good news is that they are still hiring 250 by June and then pick it up again in the fall.

I'm out on mil lv until 1 April. Returning as a 767 FO.

I had a few reasons to return; 1) my wife's going back to active duty and will be stationed in SAT; my reserve job is in the DC area. 2) I wanted to return and get the B/C contributions in case I get furloughed again. 3) I am approaching my 1095 day limit for reserve duty and need to take ~10 months off from the reserves.

When I spoke to the TK scheduler, he said that the plan (as of 2 wks ago) remained to have newhire classes til June (1 class in June). However, he said that they're looking at cancelling the last two classes.
With the age 60 change (only 2 retirements in Jan according to the SSC), I would think that UAL will be properly staffed with the hiring til June.
A lot of the returning furloughees went on mil lv or LOA. There has been a steady return of mil lv and LOAs. In Jan, there was a net return of 20 pilots from mil lv - appears that 1 resigned. There was a net return of 5 LOAs - it appears that 8 pilots returning from LOA resigned. There were still 644 mil lv and 187 LOAs that haven't returned as of end of Jan. The LOAs should be pretty much done returning in the next 12 months, so I wouldn't be expecting any more hiring to take place after this summer, especially with the lack of retirements.

 

[Lear70]

It depends on the year you were hired. For the latest bid that just closed two weeks ago, the most junior Captain was a December of 2004 hire and will go to class in April making him about 3 1/2 years longevity entering class.

I would guess most 2005 Airtran newhires are looking at around 3.5-4 year upgrades, with 2006 Airtran newhires looking at about 5 year upgrades based on a delivery schedule of about 8-10 aircraft per year for the next few years. 8-10 Aircraft deliveries per year only make about 50-60 new Captains every years so the upgrades times will definitely be increasing.

That would be about right... if... they would stop selling aircraft.

As we enter this recession (didn't we just have one?), look for more deferrals/sales of aircraft to happen and a general tightening of the belt for about 2 years.

I'm thinking that will delay upgrades by that same amount of time, with the late '05 and later new-hires suffering the brunt of those delays in upgrade and kicking it upwards of 6+ years.

I also believe the company will use this to their advantage in negotiations, drag out a contract settlement, and prolong it well into the end of the year before they even get close.

What will help then is a new face in Washington (assuming it's not McCain or Billary), who might actually put some labor-friendly people at the NMB and allow us to exercise some self-help options.

If that doesn't happen, and the recession hits as hard as I think it will, we'll all be waiting for a new contract well into 2009...

Still think it's better than what we were offered last summer.

 

[pilotgolfer]

I'm out on mil lv until 1 April. Returning as a 767 FO.

I had a few reasons to return; 1) my wife's going back to active duty and will be stationed in SAT; my reserve job is in the DC area. 2) I wanted to return and get the B/C contributions in case I get furloughed again. 3) I am approaching my 1095 day limit for reserve duty and need to take ~10 months off from the reserves.

When I spoke to the TK scheduler, he said that the plan (as of 2 wks ago) remained to have newhire classes til June (1 class in June). However, he said that they're looking at cancelling the last two classes.
With the age 60 change (only 2 retirements in Jan according to the SSC), I would think that UAL will be properly staffed with the hiring til June.
A lot of the returning furloughees went on mil lv or LOA. There has been a steady return of mil lv and LOAs. In Jan, there was a net return of 20 pilots from mil lv - appears that 1 resigned. There was a net return of 5 LOAs - it appears that 8 pilots returning from LOA resigned. There were still 644 mil lv and 187 LOAs that haven't returned as of end of Jan. The LOAs should be pretty much done returning in the next 12 months, so I wouldn't be expecting any more hiring to take place after this summer, especially with the lack of retirements.

Actually, I thought you would chime in and correct my spelling.

 

[Andy]

Actually, I thought you would chime in and correct my spelling.

LOL! I didn't realize that I was a spelling nazi on this forum. But FWIW, you were looking for 'skewed.'

 

[pilotgolfer]

LOL! I didn't realize that I was a spelling nazi on this forum. But FWIW, you were looking for 'skewed.'

Thanks...I feel better now. I tried it with a "k" and it just didn't look right. Enjoy the 767 course...its a pretty quick and dirty course. Did you get DCA?

 

[Andy]

Enjoy the 767 course...its a pretty quick and dirty course. Did you get DCA?

Well, that's depressing. I haven't turned a wheel since 2002 so my PI will probably be bald from ripping his hair out by the time I'm done with the course.

I got DCA; should be an interesting commute from SAT. I'm strongly considering lateraling to ORD. I'll wait and see how loads are on the two daily direct SAT-IAD. Other than that, I'll have to get creative - as in multi city commute.
I can do some reserve work while sitting reserve in DCA, but geez, that commute looks nasty.

 

[pilotgolfer]

Well, that's depressing. I haven't turned a wheel since 2002 so my PI will probably be bald from ripping his hair out by the time I'm done with the course.

I got DCA; should be an interesting commute from SAT. I'm strongly considering lateraling to ORD. I'll wait and see how loads are on the two daily direct SAT-IAD. Other than that, I'll have to get creative - as in multi city commute.
I can do some reserve work while sitting reserve in DCA, but geez, that commute looks nasty.

Feel free to go to ORD...coming from a person with a bid in for DCA 767 !!

Welcome back

 

[PCL_128]

Airtran had a much greater cost advantage over the legacies back then. Legacies have reduced costs to match Airtran

Nobody is matching our costs. The legacies aren't even close. Even SWA has creeped above us now on their costs. We have the lowest non-fuel CASM in the industry, and match SWA on CASM including fuel. The legacies are still far away from matching our costs. We'll weather a recession just fine.