Leave Airtran for United??

[contrail67]

I think Andy is still out on Mil leave...last I knew so you are right....the whole furlough thing mixed things up alot.

Good news is that they are still hiring 250 by June and then pick it up again in the fall.

 

[maxblast72]

UMm you just sold 2 more planes today...4 year upgrade??? what are you smoking?

It depends on the year you were hired. For the latest bid that just closed two weeks ago, the most junior Captain was a December of 2004 hire and will go to class in April making him about 3 1/2 years longevity entering class.

I would guess most 2005 Airtran newhires are looking at around 3.5-4 year upgrades, with 2006 Airtran newhires looking at about 5 year upgrades based on a delivery schedule of about 8-10 aircraft per year for the next few years. 8-10 Aircraft deliveries per year only make about 50-60 new Captains every years so the upgrades times will definitely be increasing.

 

[Andy]

I think Andy is still out on Mil leave...last I knew so you are right....the whole furlough thing mixed things up alot.

Good news is that they are still hiring 250 by June and then pick it up again in the fall.

I'm out on mil lv until 1 April. Returning as a 767 FO.

I had a few reasons to return; 1) my wife's going back to active duty and will be stationed in SAT; my reserve job is in the DC area. 2) I wanted to return and get the B/C contributions in case I get furloughed again. 3) I am approaching my 1095 day limit for reserve duty and need to take ~10 months off from the reserves.

When I spoke to the TK scheduler, he said that the plan (as of 2 wks ago) remained to have newhire classes til June (1 class in June). However, he said that they're looking at cancelling the last two classes.
With the age 60 change (only 2 retirements in Jan according to the SSC), I would think that UAL will be properly staffed with the hiring til June.
A lot of the returning furloughees went on mil lv or LOA. There has been a steady return of mil lv and LOAs. In Jan, there was a net return of 20 pilots from mil lv - appears that 1 resigned. There was a net return of 5 LOAs - it appears that 8 pilots returning from LOA resigned. There were still 644 mil lv and 187 LOAs that haven't returned as of end of Jan. The LOAs should be pretty much done returning in the next 12 months, so I wouldn't be expecting any more hiring to take place after this summer, especially with the lack of retirements.

 

[Lear70]

It depends on the year you were hired. For the latest bid that just closed two weeks ago, the most junior Captain was a December of 2004 hire and will go to class in April making him about 3 1/2 years longevity entering class.

I would guess most 2005 Airtran newhires are looking at around 3.5-4 year upgrades, with 2006 Airtran newhires looking at about 5 year upgrades based on a delivery schedule of about 8-10 aircraft per year for the next few years. 8-10 Aircraft deliveries per year only make about 50-60 new Captains every years so the upgrades times will definitely be increasing.

That would be about right... if... they would stop selling aircraft.

As we enter this recession (didn't we just have one?), look for more deferrals/sales of aircraft to happen and a general tightening of the belt for about 2 years.

I'm thinking that will delay upgrades by that same amount of time, with the late '05 and later new-hires suffering the brunt of those delays in upgrade and kicking it upwards of 6+ years.

I also believe the company will use this to their advantage in negotiations, drag out a contract settlement, and prolong it well into the end of the year before they even get close.

What will help then is a new face in Washington (assuming it's not McCain or Billary), who might actually put some labor-friendly people at the NMB and allow us to exercise some self-help options.

If that doesn't happen, and the recession hits as hard as I think it will, we'll all be waiting for a new contract well into 2009...

Still think it's better than what we were offered last summer.

 

[pilotgolfer]

I'm out on mil lv until 1 April. Returning as a 767 FO.

I had a few reasons to return; 1) my wife's going back to active duty and will be stationed in SAT; my reserve job is in the DC area. 2) I wanted to return and get the B/C contributions in case I get furloughed again. 3) I am approaching my 1095 day limit for reserve duty and need to take ~10 months off from the reserves.

When I spoke to the TK scheduler, he said that the plan (as of 2 wks ago) remained to have newhire classes til June (1 class in June). However, he said that they're looking at cancelling the last two classes.
With the age 60 change (only 2 retirements in Jan according to the SSC), I would think that UAL will be properly staffed with the hiring til June.
A lot of the returning furloughees went on mil lv or LOA. There has been a steady return of mil lv and LOAs. In Jan, there was a net return of 20 pilots from mil lv - appears that 1 resigned. There was a net return of 5 LOAs - it appears that 8 pilots returning from LOA resigned. There were still 644 mil lv and 187 LOAs that haven't returned as of end of Jan. The LOAs should be pretty much done returning in the next 12 months, so I wouldn't be expecting any more hiring to take place after this summer, especially with the lack of retirements.

Actually, I thought you would chime in and correct my spelling.

 

[Andy]

Actually, I thought you would chime in and correct my spelling.

LOL! I didn't realize that I was a spelling nazi on this forum. But FWIW, you were looking for 'skewed.'

 

[pilotgolfer]

LOL! I didn't realize that I was a spelling nazi on this forum. But FWIW, you were looking for 'skewed.'

Thanks...I feel better now. I tried it with a "k" and it just didn't look right. Enjoy the 767 course...its a pretty quick and dirty course. Did you get DCA?

 

[Andy]

Enjoy the 767 course...its a pretty quick and dirty course. Did you get DCA?

Well, that's depressing. I haven't turned a wheel since 2002 so my PI will probably be bald from ripping his hair out by the time I'm done with the course.

I got DCA; should be an interesting commute from SAT. I'm strongly considering lateraling to ORD. I'll wait and see how loads are on the two daily direct SAT-IAD. Other than that, I'll have to get creative - as in multi city commute.
I can do some reserve work while sitting reserve in DCA, but geez, that commute looks nasty.

 

[pilotgolfer]

Well, that's depressing. I haven't turned a wheel since 2002 so my PI will probably be bald from ripping his hair out by the time I'm done with the course.

I got DCA; should be an interesting commute from SAT. I'm strongly considering lateraling to ORD. I'll wait and see how loads are on the two daily direct SAT-IAD. Other than that, I'll have to get creative - as in multi city commute.
I can do some reserve work while sitting reserve in DCA, but geez, that commute looks nasty.

Feel free to go to ORD...coming from a person with a bid in for DCA 767 !!

Welcome back

 

[PCL_128]

Airtran had a much greater cost advantage over the legacies back then. Legacies have reduced costs to match Airtran

Nobody is matching our costs. The legacies aren't even close. Even SWA has creeped above us now on their costs. We have the lowest non-fuel CASM in the industry, and match SWA on CASM including fuel. The legacies are still far away from matching our costs. We'll weather a recession just fine.