Latest ACEY Negotiation Info

[ASARJMan]

talk to me in 6 months when asa is down to 100 planes and 150+ on furlough I will be proven right. Then I will tell you I told you so.

You starting to realize you'll lose your pathetic little job at the G/O poopyboy? Voting YES, strike ballots arrive next week.

 

[COOPERVANE]

D'Angelo This message is hidden because D'Angelo is on your ignore list.</SPAN>

 

[ASA_Willy]

Lockout

Have you all ever considered that management's intention may really be to cause the pilots to strike, or more likely that a pilot strike has been determined to be an acceptable way to further managment's long term interests? If the company and union are allowed to go to self-help, a lockout would be a natural response by management either in advance of or in quick response to a strike by the union.

JA and the rest of Skywest management hate unions and a lockout would be a path to breaking the ALPA shop. He might be able to hire enough scabs (young guys and gals oblivious to the implications) to restart operations within a few months, but more likely he would just transfer the assest including the aircraft and ATL gates to Skywest and very quickly get back to business.

Do you think it is an accident that there are now 5 DCI carriers in ATL? The way routes are shifted routinely between all the players, it would be very hard to define what was struck work, especially into the second month of a lockout. Do you think the Skywest pilots' in-house lap dog of a union is organized enough to refuse struck work, if they can even figure out what is and is not struck work? Are they going to refuse to fly ASA's airplanes after a lockout? How about the rest of DCI? The various flavors of Republic guys might try and I'm expect that COMAIR's MEC would do their best, but after the duration of the published schedule it would be impossible for those even with the best of intentions to say what is struck work.

Delta would suffer some serious pain for 6-8 weeks and it would be another couple of months before it was all back together, but JA would get his union free shop and he and Delta would send a powerful message to all of their workers about their version of the new world order.

I'm not trying to scare anybody off a strike vote. I'm mostly a spectator here. ASA pilots have a crap contract and the negotiations have been dragged on for too long. But my guess is that management might move towards self-help on its own, regardless your strike vote, if the negotiations continue to stalemate. It may not be the best end state for management, but Jerry and his boys are playing for the long haul and the cost of a lockout may well be worth it.

Willy

 

[atrdriver]

The only problem with that is does SKW have enough money sitting around to have half of their total fleet parked? Airplanes don't make money when they are sitting on the ramp collecting dust. I don't know how much money it would cost per day, but the lease payments are still due, and thats a lot of money. I don't know if SKW has that kind of money sitting around just to break ALPA.

 

[DrunkIrishman]

Delta would suffer some serious pain for 6-8 weeks and it would be another couple of months before it was all back together

ASA has around 1800 pilots. How could Skywest replace even half of them in just wo months? For all the math majors out there: they would have to train 150/month for six months to get to 900.

 

[ASA_Willy]

ASA has around 1800 pilots. How could Skywest replace even half of them in just wo months? For all the math majors out there: they would have to train 150/month for six months to get to 900.

Like I said, there are now 5 DCI carriers in ATL. Skywest wouldn't be able to pick up that much of the flying initially. Much of it would fall to the others and, across all of them, they could probably replace most of what ASA does out of ATL within 3-4 months of a lockout. I'd expect it would take Skywest 18-24 months to get back to the capacity of the 2 current airlines. Not cheap, but Skywest had a ton of cash left over even after the purchase of ASA.

The real question going back to last summer is what was in JA's mind when he bought ASA? There is no doubt that prior to the purchase he and his people had gamed out possible outcomes to the current contract negotiations that would have included the possibility of failed negotiations and strike. He clearly hates having unions on the property. Obviously what he really wants is the most profitable long term outcome and that would come from bringing the union to heel on his terms, but if a strike (not just a strike vote) starts looking like a probable event, JA won't try and wait it out. He'll come out swinging and pursue a lockout.

 

[Crash Pad]

Willy I think you are on target. When I saw the proposed 70 rate below the current 50 rate I could see where this was going. Management must know that the rates they proposed would force a strike.

I think if management doesn't budge then they want the strike. Between all the excess DCI capacity and Continental Express they can cover the flying pretty quick. Especially if you consider SKYW is already ramping up training and transferring our assets. We can't strike tomorrow. We are at least three months from a strike... Lots of time. Too much time.

I've become a huge fan of the strike. We are pawns playing three moves behind.

 

[SuperKooter]

I don't understand the resistance to making the f/o pay the same across the board and getting a 5% increase?

 

[benjakes]

At concessions of 3.5MM, If ASA did strike, what would be the payback in years, for management?

Second thought, do you not believe that Delta protected themselves with an out in the ASA contract if they did strike?

This is a huge game of Chicken. Y'all assume management holds all the cards. They have a pair, do you?

Delta cannot afford any interuptions, or a shift in public opinion. DO NOT CAVE.

 

[Stifler's Mom]

Hey, I couldn't find the chart with the new salaries of management when they take their 13% compensation cut. It only seems natural that they are going to lead by example, right???????