JetBlue upgrade time?

[aa73]

It does blow my mind to think about the AA situation and 20+ year upgrades! I hope those retirements get cranking soon and you can get into the left seat.

Thanks amigo! :beer:

 

[Cheeta]

I am 1508 at the company and can hold the most junior line (non RSV)in both JFK and BOS in the 190. I believe we will lose 10 to 15 senior 190 Captains to recall at Delta and AA over the next 12 months. Additionally I believe another 5 or 10 senior 190 captains will move to the left seat of the 320 as they can hold lines. As of today we still have an additional 190 coming this year and only one scheduled for delivery in 2014. I have heard from the chief pilots that we are considering based on the outcome of the AA / US Airways merger taking an additional 4 to 5 190 aircraft in 2014.

JetBlue currently has roughly 190 aircraft 130 320's and 60 190's on property as of today JetBlue has an additional 85 aircraft coming over the next 7 to 8 years mostly A320 NEO and 321's. We staff the airline at about 6.7 crews per aircraft. That number may go up to 7 crews per aircraft due to 117 rules.

My prediction when all deliveries are in approximately 2020 you will need a global seniority number of 1200 to hold a line in the 320/321 and quite possibly a global number of 1800 to hold the line in the 190

 

[coogebeachhotel]

Infinity.
In all seriousness it will be a decade + for a new-hire to hold captain.
Over-Under of B6 being ticker JBLU in 10+ years.........

 

[$$$4nothin]

Infinity.
In all seriousness it will be a decade + for a new-hire to hold captain.
Over-Under of B6 being ticker JBLU in 10+ years.........

Very interesting prediction. I read the same prediction the day I hit the line at JB 2.5 years ago. Then I heard it again when the seniority calculator came out. Captain went to less than 3 years in the last bid. There is going to be massive attrition at JB, recalls going back, 85 airplanes on order, a couple retirements, guys medicaling out due to working 20 days a month and living in crash pads. I would be willing to bet you are way off on your number. By about 4-6 years or so. Oh don't forget the fact that most Airbus guys will have nothing to do with the 190. Keep throwing out the 10-18 year upgrade number I always hear though. It amuses me every time.

I do agree with your over under though. I don't believe JBLU will exist in 10 years. What happens to us pilots will depend on how smart we can get as a group.

 

[coogebeachhotel]

Very interesting prediction. I read the same prediction the day I hit the line at JB 2.5 years ago. Then I heard it again when the seniority calculator came out. Captain went to less than 3 years in the last bid. There is going to be massive attrition at JB, recalls going back, 85 airplanes on order, a couple retirements, guys medicaling out due to working 20 days a month and living in crash pads. I would be willing to bet you are way off on your number. By about 4-6 years or so. Oh don't forget the fact that most Airbus guys will have nothing to do with the 190. Keep throwing out the 10-18 year upgrade number I always hear though. It amuses me every time.

I do agree with your over under though. I don't believe JBLU will exist in 10 years. What happens to us pilots will depend on how smart we can get as a group.

I disagree. It will be longer than 4 to 6 years to hold captain. Add in an adverse macro economic cycle we are about due for in the next 2-3 years. Yep. Enjoy the pine.

 

[Airbus300]

Why is the 190 a POS? Just curious.

 

[$$$4nothin]

Why is the 190 a POS? Just curious.

Well it depends on who you talk to. Personally the plane gives me a false seniority. I haven't worked a weekend or holiday yet this year (2.5 years senior) and I live a pretty comfortable lifestyle. in this regard I think its a great airplane. That being said. When the 170/190 first came out it was an electrical/computerized nightmare. Many of those glitches have all been fixed, but the stigma still remains. The 190 has a lot of small maintenance issues that the bus just doesn't have. Printer stops working randomly, all sorts of minor EICAS messages pop up randomly. You have to load your Info into the FMS personally vs. it's getting uploaded to the BUS. It's not nearly as comfortable in the cockpit as the bus. More legs a day. Shorter legs a day. More northeast flying. No west coast flying. Cost the company an extra 20 million last qtr in maintenance costs. Ram horn yoke vs. side stick and a tray table. 1 jumpseat vs. 2. They don't like to admit it but a lot of BUS guys at JB have SJS and need to fly the bigger airplane to feel better about themselves. It pays 10% less per hour than the 320/321. Many bus guys also feel the 190 has distorted and ruined there seniority. In a way they are correct however all it would take is a bid to the 190 and they could hold any schedule they want. I am sure I have missed something, and am sure someone will correct me.

As you can see. The 190 isn't really that big a POS in itself anymore. It is just a POS compared to the BUS at JB

 

[Limeyflyer]

Well said $$$

 

[Flyby1206]

You have to load your Info into the FMS personally vs. it's getting uploaded to the BUS.

Whaaaat?! Dealbreaker right there!

 

[coogebeachhotel]

From a CFO perspective the 190 cost creep is a nightmare.
From a pilot perspective the 190 is a good airplane.

 

[Airbus300]

Thanks for all the above responses.

 

[$$$4nothin]

New bid is out.

25 Bus upgrades
10 190 upgrades
119 new FO slots that will need to come from new hires.

My guess is bus upgrade goes to 6 years. 190 upgrade goes to 3.5 years.
However I'm just guessing and we can wait until the 20th or so to see the results.
Captain and FO slots in all bases except MCO.

Good luck to all

 

[sligo1]

New bid is out.

25 Bus upgrades
10 190 upgrades
119 new FO slots that will need to come from new hires.

My guess is bus upgrade goes to 6 years. 190 upgrade goes to 3.5 years.
However I'm just guessing and we can wait until the 20th or so to see the results.
Captain and FO slots in all bases except MCO.

Good luck to all

Probaly very close on numbers although I expect 320 to go 7+ years and 190 between 4 and 5 years. Who knows the unknown that may drive it a little lower is training in Nov Dec and Jan.

 

[Splert]

They don't like to admit it but a lot of BUS guys at JB have SJS and need to fly the bigger airplane to feel better about themselves.

Sounds like inverse speak.

 

[Splert]

Keep throwing out the 10-18 year upgrade number I always hear though. It amuses me every time.

Unless a pilot lives in base upgrading back to reserve is something that most do not want any part of.

IMO.