JetBlue upgrade time?

[aa73]

What is the current upgrade time, Blue dudes? I ask b/c a buddy of mine was hired there back in 2005 and upgraded to A320 CA in 2010. Still the case?

 

[StarChecker]

What is the current upgrade time, Blue dudes? I ask b/c a buddy of mine was hired there back in 2005 and upgraded to A320 CA in 2010. Still the case?

Most junior 190 was hired about 3 years ago.
Most junior 320 was Jan 2007.

I'm here 6 1/2 years and cannot hold 320 CA yet. I also have 16 more years just to break 1000 seniority number. That's 21 years to junior line-holding 320 CA. Aircraft deliveries may improve these numbers slightly. But our retirement numbers are abysmal.

Attrition is a certainty and will also improve these numbers. I'm sure they'll fix everything then...

 

[pilotpayne]

Most junior 190 was hired about 3 years ago.
Most junior 320 was Jan 2007.

I'm here 6 1/2 years and cannot hold 320 CA yet. I also have 16 more years just to break 1000 seniority number. That's 21 years to junior line-holding 320 CA. Aircraft deliveries may improve these numbers slightly. But our retirement numbers are abysmal.

Attrition is a certainty and will also improve these numbers. I'm sure they'll fix everything then...

You could always come over to the 190 or does it have to be a bus?

 

[145 Lawndart]

I was hired Jan '07 and I'm around 1480 of approximately 2500. I just bypassed upgrade on the bus for the first time. I have about 350 fo's still senior to me.

As far as the 190 goes. I spent 4 years on that POS and I won't go back to it even though I could hold a line as capt. It does go junior though, I think around 1800 or so system wide.

So doing the math. At least 700 capt slots would have to open up to hold junior capt on the 190. We have VERY FEW retirements so those would have to come from growth.

Good luck, I would only come here and start at the bottom if I was young or unemployed.

 

[BeachBummer]

Junior 190ca went 1950ish.

Just about the three year mark for those guys.

 

[aa73]

Thx guys. I'm a little confused...you say you can hold it, but yet you say it'll be years from now? Not following.

So if I understand - anyone hired today would hold 190 CA in about 3 years, in 2016....and 320 CA in 7 years, around 2019? Fair guess?

 

[Flyby1206]

Thx guys. I'm a little confused...you say you can hold it, but yet you say it'll be years from now? Not following.

So if I understand - anyone hired today would hold 190 CA in about 3 years, in 2016....and 320 CA in 7 years, around 2019? Fair guess?

Jetblue went through a big growth phase several years ago, the forward projections based on purely aircraft deliveries and retirements don't show enough growth for the upgrade to remain at 7 years like it is today for the A320. As with anything, it is impossible to know the future. We could see a spike in attrition or big aircraft order.

But for those who were hired 7 years ago they can hold A320 CA, and hired 3 years ago can hold E190 CA.

 

[johnsonrod]

People leaving for the legacies could accelerate some upgrades...

 

[$$$4nothin]

Another bid should be coming out this week. So in 10-14 days from now some mores recent numbers will be out. Most are guessing 190 will go to 2.5 years or so and bus should stay around 7 years. Growth is still happening at a decent rate. However most of next years growth is airbus so I would guess 190 upgrade will start to creep up as the years go on and the bus will stay around 7. Attrition/recalls is the big unknown. Lets just say a lot of people pass up upgrade. Commuting to reserve as a Captain at JB is a horrible experience from what I see from the guys that seem to live in my crash pad. I will most likely be passing up upgrade for the first time next week. O7/2011 hire.

 

[aa73]

Wow... Sorry but to my warped AA mind used to 21 year junior CA upgrades, a 3 year upgrade is amazing!

Signed, a 14-year AA pilot still 2000 #s away from jr CA ( another 5 years to go minimum)

 

[Flyby1206]

Wow... Sorry but to my warped AA mind used to 21 year junior CA upgrades, a 3 year upgrade is amazing!

Signed, a 14-year AA pilot still 2000 #s away from jr CA ( another 5 years to go minimum)

It does blow my mind to think about the AA situation and 20+ year upgrades! I hope those retirements get cranking soon and you can get into the left seat.

On the bright side, your widebody FO pay is probably the same as (or better than) our A320 CA pay

 

[CapnVegetto]

Junior,190 captain is 1944 system wide last bid. I'll bet it won't go that junior this time around. People will see the big bid and go Ok! I'm getting closer to 190 captain line holder, I'll take the upgrade now. I'm senior to $$$4nothin by about a month, and I think it'll get to me sometime late next year. Whether or not I take it is still a question mark. No way in hell would I take RSV bus captain, but I might consider it on the 190.

We'll see.

 

[Ski-N-Fly]

No matter what airline employs you, projected upgrade times are always subject to change. One can only predict so much, and in this industry timing has a lot to do with it. Unfortunately, timing is something that cannot be controlled. However, one can try to take advantage of it, if given the right circumstances. Regardless, we're all rolling the dice in this profession.

 

[pilotpayne]

No matter what airline employs you, projected upgrade times are always subject to change. One can only predict so much, and in this industry timing has a lot to do with it. Unfortunately, timing is something that cannot be controlled. However, one can try to take advantage of it, if given the right circumstances. Regardless, we're all rolling the dice in this profession.

Right on

 

[145 Lawndart]

Right on

Totally agree.

"years to upgrade" is not a good way to estimate. I missed upgrade by a few numbers 2 1/2 years ago and it just came back to my seniority on the last bid.

 

[aa73]

It does blow my mind to think about the AA situation and 20+ year upgrades! I hope those retirements get cranking soon and you can get into the left seat.

Thanks amigo! :beer:

 

[Cheeta]

I am 1508 at the company and can hold the most junior line (non RSV)in both JFK and BOS in the 190. I believe we will lose 10 to 15 senior 190 Captains to recall at Delta and AA over the next 12 months. Additionally I believe another 5 or 10 senior 190 captains will move to the left seat of the 320 as they can hold lines. As of today we still have an additional 190 coming this year and only one scheduled for delivery in 2014. I have heard from the chief pilots that we are considering based on the outcome of the AA / US Airways merger taking an additional 4 to 5 190 aircraft in 2014.

JetBlue currently has roughly 190 aircraft 130 320's and 60 190's on property as of today JetBlue has an additional 85 aircraft coming over the next 7 to 8 years mostly A320 NEO and 321's. We staff the airline at about 6.7 crews per aircraft. That number may go up to 7 crews per aircraft due to 117 rules.

My prediction when all deliveries are in approximately 2020 you will need a global seniority number of 1200 to hold a line in the 320/321 and quite possibly a global number of 1800 to hold the line in the 190

 

[coogebeachhotel]

Infinity.
In all seriousness it will be a decade + for a new-hire to hold captain.
Over-Under of B6 being ticker JBLU in 10+ years.........

 

[$$$4nothin]

Infinity.
In all seriousness it will be a decade + for a new-hire to hold captain.
Over-Under of B6 being ticker JBLU in 10+ years.........

Very interesting prediction. I read the same prediction the day I hit the line at JB 2.5 years ago. Then I heard it again when the seniority calculator came out. Captain went to less than 3 years in the last bid. There is going to be massive attrition at JB, recalls going back, 85 airplanes on order, a couple retirements, guys medicaling out due to working 20 days a month and living in crash pads. I would be willing to bet you are way off on your number. By about 4-6 years or so. Oh don't forget the fact that most Airbus guys will have nothing to do with the 190. Keep throwing out the 10-18 year upgrade number I always hear though. It amuses me every time.

I do agree with your over under though. I don't believe JBLU will exist in 10 years. What happens to us pilots will depend on how smart we can get as a group.

 

[coogebeachhotel]

Very interesting prediction. I read the same prediction the day I hit the line at JB 2.5 years ago. Then I heard it again when the seniority calculator came out. Captain went to less than 3 years in the last bid. There is going to be massive attrition at JB, recalls going back, 85 airplanes on order, a couple retirements, guys medicaling out due to working 20 days a month and living in crash pads. I would be willing to bet you are way off on your number. By about 4-6 years or so. Oh don't forget the fact that most Airbus guys will have nothing to do with the 190. Keep throwing out the 10-18 year upgrade number I always hear though. It amuses me every time.

I do agree with your over under though. I don't believe JBLU will exist in 10 years. What happens to us pilots will depend on how smart we can get as a group.

I disagree. It will be longer than 4 to 6 years to hold captain. Add in an adverse macro economic cycle we are about due for in the next 2-3 years. Yep. Enjoy the pine.