Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[blzr]

1. There is plenty of oil. Brazil has seveal offshore fields that will come on line in 2010.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2144574420080521

2. North sea discoveries. The higher prices go, the more oil we will find.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/...d=news_view&newsId=20080522005490&newsLang=en

3. As for domestic oil, http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1395678/opening_up_oil_drilling_makes_sense/

I'm not even going to bring up ANWR.

Our government is to blame for our current state of affairs. They pander to the Eco-terrorist, environmental wacko's. In 1996, Bill Clinton veto'd the ANWR drilling proposal claiming that it would take 10 years to get the oil to market. Well, we may not be in this situation had our politicians (on both sides of the isle) used some commons sence.

We have to start somewhere, take that first step. If it is going to take 3 months, 3 years, or even 10 years to get the iol to market, we have to get started now.

 

[jetflyer]

Blzr,
You realize depleting fields mean the world is losing about 3-4Mbd a year right now right?

Just to keep oil production level:
The world has to bring online between 3-4 ANWR's each year(each ANWR is 1Mbd).

To grow by 1mbd:
4-5 ANWR's have to be brought online each year.

The last couple years we've only been staying close to level which alone means a LOT of oil has been coming to market.

2008 and 2009 are supposed to have a LOT of new oil projects come online but they're only supposed to barely increase global production or keep it level.

Really the world is depending on Russia and Saudi continuing to grow but both have declining production which will mean more ANWR's will be needed to stay LEVEL!

Supply is going to have a hard time increasing in the years to come.

 

[PCL_128]

Oil prices are down about $5/bbl today. The analysts are taking it as a sign of profit-taking. Hitting $135/bbl might be a tipping point for some institutional investors to realize that things have had too big of a run. I think jetflyer's prediction of $100/bbl within the next few months is probably accurate. People will take profits and drive the cost down. There simply isn't any new money out there to dump into oil and other commodities.

 

[blzr]

Blzr,
You realize depleting fields mean the world is losing about 3-4Mbd a year right now right?

Just to keep oil production level:
The world has to bring online between 3-4 ANWR's each year(each ANWR is 1Mbd).

To grow by 1mbd:
4-5 ANWR's have to be brought online each year.

The last couple years we've only been staying close to level which alone means a LOT of oil has been coming to market.

2008 and 2009 are supposed to have a LOT of new oil projects come online but they're only supposed to barely increase global production or keep it level.

Really the world is depending on Russia and Saudi continuing to grow but both have declining production which will mean more ANWR's will be needed to stay LEVEL!

Supply is going to have a hard time increasing in the years to come.

Jet, you are absolutely right. Now, specifically, WHO (which political f.cked up party) WILL NOT LET US EXPLORE AND DRILL FOR OUR OWN OIL???

It is there...Lots of it. Not enough for FOREVER, but enough to ease the tranition to another fuel source somewhere in the future.

 

[PCL_128]

The problem is that it wouldn't ease the transition, it would delay it once again. As soon as we start drilling in more places for oil, the speculators will pull their money out of oil, gas prices will drop, and people will go right back to their old ways until we run out of domestic oil. Then everyone will panic again and we'll be no further along in developing alternatives. The Administration needs to show some leadership and put tons of federal money towards developing alternative energy. Waiting for the "free market" to take care of it isn't going to work.

 

[blzr]

The problem is that it wouldn't ease the transition, it would delay it once again. As soon as we start drilling in more places for oil, the speculators will pull their money out of oil, gas prices will drop, and people will go right back to their old ways until we run out of domestic oil. Then everyone will panic again and we'll be no further along in developing alternatives. The Administration needs to show some leadership and put tons of federal money towards developing alternative energy. Waiting for the "free market" to take care of it isn't going to work.

Ok. I'll take your word for it. But.....instead of begging Saudi Arabia and the other middle eastass countries to give us more, why don't we just get our own oil, try as best we can to conserve and transition to alternative recources, and let the RAGHEADS eat scorpions. I'm sick of our P ssy ass government acting like a bunch of dumbass hippies.

Lets just TRY the "drill you own" Oil thing and see what happens.

 

[jetflyer]

I want to start out by saying I really appreciate you blzr and PCL.

I can't even stand to read some of the other threads on oil on these boards. I want to puke seeing the lack of knowledge on this topic being spewed out of their mouths.

Blzr,
The back and forth bickering between the Dems and Repubs is why nothing gets done to make us more energy independent. They're both to blame.

Divided, we all fail.

In the 3 years I've been researching peak oil NOTHING has gotten done because of these idiots.

Let's hope they can pull their heads out of their asses and help us ease the pain that's here....I doubt it though..

Jet

 

[Negative Prist]

jetflyer,

Last week I happened to fly one of the authors you mentioned in your very first post on this thread. During another conversation with him a few years ago, he predicted $4 a gallon gas in two years.

I asked him again last week what he saw for the next two years. His answer was somewhat surprising. He said, "Ten to twelve dollars a gallon in two years. But that's hard to predict. It could happen in four months."

He also confirmed your comment in your previous post about ANWR. I asked him his opinion on drilling there, and he said that it is too late for ANWR to help us.

He also said that he doesn't see many airlines surviving the oil price increases in the next few years. If you currently fly for an airline, I suspect his advice to you would very likely be to find a fractional job now. He predicted fractionals would fare much better.

 

[Soverytired]

Lovely. I agree with all of it.

ANWR and off shore drilling will happen, and are necessary. But they'll take at least a decade to develop, and won't save us from high gas prices. Too late for that.

What's even worse is meaningful switches to alternative fuels will take a GENERATION. Kinda sobering. If true.

Course, there's been gloom and doom talk about things like this before. So, think happy thoughts, I guess.

 

[PCL_128]

Ridiculous. I've been saying it for a long time: $5/gallon gas is a breaking point. When we get there, people will change their habits. Demand will drop like a brick and oil prices will fall. The chances of seeing $10/gallon gas are just about non-existent, IMO.

 

[Lear70]

People are already changing their habits.

SUV and truck sales are down by over 60%. One of the major manufacturers just completely just down their truck and SUV line for the rest of the year and is retooling for smaller vehicles.

It's just a matter of time, and I don't believe gas prices will retreat anywhere less than $3.50 a gallon, nor will oil go much below $100 a brl once the bubble bursts.

Put a c-note on it?

 

[Skank]

1. There is plenty of oil. Brazil has seveal offshore fields that will come on line in 2010.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2144574420080521

2. North sea discoveries. The higher prices go, the more oil we will find.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/...d=news_view&newsId=20080522005490&newsLang=en

3. As for domestic oil, http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1395678/opening_up_oil_drilling_makes_sense/

I'm not even going to bring up ANWR.

Our government is to blame for our current state of affairs. They pander to the Eco-terrorist, environmental wacko's. In 1996, Bill Clinton veto'd the ANWR drilling proposal claiming that it would take 10 years to get the oil to market. Well, we may not be in this situation had our politicians (on both sides of the isle) used some commons sence.

We have to start somewhere, take that first step. If it is going to take 3 months, 3 years, or even 10 years to get the iol to market, we have to get started now.

If we focus on where to find oil, rather than not using oil, things will never change. We haven't spent much on an alternative to oil, even though our entire economy runs on it. Not smart. Drilling in Alaska will not save our bacon, and it wouldn't have 10 years ago.

 

[Lear70]

The flightinfo server sucks, won't refresh, won't reload, and you have no idea when you're posting multiple times or not.

Wonder why they can't get a real server with as much money as they make from all this advertising?

 

[jetflyer]

Negative Prist,
I'd love to know who you flew that predicted $10-$12/gallon in two years?
Tertzakian? Hirsch?

I know the author of the study on peak oil for the Department of Energy is now saying those in the know are predicting $12-15/gallon in the next couple years.

PCL,
The tipping point is not even close. We in the U.S. have reduced our usage 1%. What's it going to take to reduce the usage 5%? 10%? 20%? Unfortunately we're going to find out the answer to 20% demand destruction in the next 5-10 years in my opinion because the oil simply won't be there in the quantities desired.

One of the main problems right now? The Oil exporters are using more of their oil and exporting less. That screws the importers like the U.S.A.

The governments of many countries also absorb the cost of oil and don't pass it on to their people. China does this. The government subsidizes the oil price so much that it's going to be hard to get demand destruction there.

Even Mexico is not supposed to be exporting oil in 10 years because their fields are in such bad decline(Cantarell especially).

Mexico not being an exporter alone would take 3 ANWR's off the world market in 10 years.....

Jet

 

[JetFumes]

Why doesn't anyone talk about the need to drill more AND conserve more. We need to drill more and also conserve, plus switch to alternatives all at the same time, if we are to preserve our future.