Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[jetflyer]

From:
Dow Jones Newswires

Dubai Crude Output Down Rapidly As Govt Moves To Crimp Decline

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Production of Dubai's crude oil has fallen as much as a third in the past two years and is a fraction of that recorded in some government statements, company documents show, undermining the already fragile position of one of the world's top three oil price reference points.
Current output in the booming Persian Gulf sheikdom, one of seven semi-autonomous enclaves in the United Arab Emirates, is some two-thirds below the figure released by the national government, according to calculations by Dow Jones Newswires using data from the previous operators of the fields. It has fallen as much as a third in the past two years....

Daily output in the first three months of this year fell to between 65,000 barrels and 80,000 barrels against the 240,000 barrels stated on the U.A.E. government's Web site......

Well that makes another one past peak oil.......

They're trying their hardest to stop the declines and just can't.

Bad news for humans,
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

A Must, Must Read for anyone interested in their Aviation career:
From: OilDrum blog

This is a thorough analysis of all projected oil projects country by country that shows oil production is in SERIOUS trouble.

The Oil Drum: Updated World Oil Forecast, Including Saudi Arabia

The title says it all. This is quite possibly the scariest analysis post we have done in a long time, folks. Read it, bring popcorn. Amazing analysis, in my opinion.

The supply crunch is imminent. This is a must read for anyone concerned about the future.

(CLICK ON THE GRAPHS to make them larger and easier to read. They're kinda small)

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

As supply continues to be less than demand in the 4th quarter (EIA says supply 85mbd and Demand 88mbd) here are two quick peak oil updates:

This first one is an update on world oil production.
The peak for crude oil is still May 2005 and we are 1 million barrels per day below the peak.
Peak oil for TOTAL LIQUIDS which counts ethanol, natural gas liquids, etc is still July 2006 and we're currently 1 million barrels per day below the peak:
Click here for an UPDATE ON PEAK OIL- You MUST look at the current oil production charts

Here is one of the best bottom-up studies I've seen on the future of oil production. They analyze the projected oil projects which take 5-10 years to bring to market and the declines in current fields and countries. They show that the peak was most likely for Crude oil(not total liquids) in 2005 and that the plateau for oil production should continue till 2009 with declines of only 1% per year and then after 2009 should decline at 4% per year.
Click here for the newest PEAK OIL STUDY on the future of oil production including price predictions for the future- You MUST look at the future oil production prediction charts

(click on the main chart to make it larger to see)

The above study also continues on the problems with oil production in Saudi Arabia with their massive ancient field Ghawar that provided over half their oil declining quickly like all other similar fields in history have done including Mexico's collosal declines that are happening in Cantarell.

Both are must reads!

The study shows the situation we face from now till May of next year with supply being less than demand. The Energy Information Agency says supply should stay at 85 million barrels a day and demand at 88 mbd in the 4th quarter. They say this will draw down global inventories (which don't count the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) by 5% in the 4th quarter. So there won't be shortages for a long time since the world has so much in storage but these being drawn down is not good.

Is the current $87/barrel high enough to bring demand down from 88mbd to the supply of 85mbd? Most definitely not. So inventories will continue to be drained until the price is high enough.

Each year in to the future supply is forecast to be farther below needed demand. Their charts are as good as a million words.

Isn't it amazing how besides a few Congressmen that have created the Peak Oil Caucus this is continually ignored by the government!?

The good thing is that even with record oil prices gasoline prices are staying relatively low (for now).

Jet

 

[crxpilot]

Please, nobody really cares about your doom and gloom. Do you have anything else to post about?

 

[Rick James]

Please, nobody really cares about your doom and gloom. Do you have anything else to post about?

I do, reality is a b!tch. I think some people are more concerned about a price hike at Starbucks than at the gas pumps.

 

[crxpilot]

I do, reality is a b!tch. I think some people are more concerned about a price hike at Starbucks than at the gas pumps.

So what do you propose Rick? Dig your own oil well? Put a huge underground tank on your farm full of fuel that will last you till your dead? C'mon, its out of our control and it will all work out in the end. Besides, whats the worse can happen, die? {hint: you're gonna die at some point anyways..} Enjoy life and let the cards fall where they may!

 

[crxpilot]

posted March 2007

Skifishfly,

2 billion barrels. That will last the world 23 days....

Plus it won't be on the market for 5-10 years.

Not fast enough to save us this summer if Saudi is past their peak oil like everyone is coming to believe and that they won't be able to increase their oil production this summer.

Global inventories are dropping at record rates right now because oil production is too low for even this slow demand season. Wait till the summer, or like I think when Iran gets hit in the next month or two.

Jet

So nutball...........we still have oil, and we havent "hit" Iran...........what else ya got?

 

[jetflyer]

Global inventories are supposed to be drawn down 6.5% this 4th quarter according to the EIA because demand is going to be 85mbd and supply 88mbd.

The inventories can't continue to be drawn down this long forever can they? The supply/demand situation is only supposed to worsen.

Jet

 

[Max Powers]

REMEMBER VOTE FOR GREEN CANDIDATES THEY ARE OUR ONLY SALVATION........WE NEED TO STOP USING SO MUCH OIL FOR ALL THINGS OUTSIDE OF AVIATION. Aviation will always need gas but our other industries and transportation services don't necessarily need it. If they use alternative forms of energy gas prices will stabilize or perhaps decline and we can then get our needed raises!!!

So remember all you knuckle headed republican conservative pilots that the global warming scare is good for us in aviation. No one will want to cut there dependence on flying but they will want to cut their dependence on useless SUV.

So vote DEMOCRAT!!!!

 

[Rick James]

So what do you propose Rick? Dig your own oil well? Put a huge underground tank on your farm full of fuel that will last you till your dead? C'mon, its out of our control and it will all work out in the end. Besides, whats the worse can happen, die? {hint: you're gonna die at some point anyways..} Enjoy life and let the cards fall where they may!

Funny thing is I agree with you. I don't sit up at night worrying about this, after all it's out of my control. Peak oil is a reality that will have to be dealt with. The question is how? As far as digging my own oil well it would be a waste of time as I would be out of a job to drive to anyway.