Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[jetflyer]

You thought we'd be at $60/barrel right now.....

It only reached 150% higher than your prediction!

 

[PCL_128]

You thought we'd be at $60/barrel right now.....

It only reached 150% higher than your prediction!

We'll see where it ends up. In the end, it'll be a hell of a lot closer to my original prediction than your $300/bbl number, you can count on that. Look at the oil price history if you want to see where we're headed. What we've just experienced is exactly the same as the run-up from 1973-1980. Oil prices went up nearly 800% during this period! And then it all came tumbling down when everyone realized that guys like you were wrong (Yes, there were guys saying the exact same things as you back then, too. In fact, some of them are the exact same people!). Within six years, oil prices dropped 62%! If we have a similar correction again, then our oil prices will be back down in the $50s/bbl. Learn from history. Bubbles are all the same.

 

[jetflyer]

You only reach peak oil for the world once......

 

[jetflyer]

Everyone look at this chart and it will tell you why the price of oil has risen the last few years:

NET OIL EXPORTS CHART of the 20 largest exporters of oil- Oil available to the importers like the USA/CHINA.

Since 2005 the world importers have had less and less oil available to them.

THESE ARE FUNDAMENTALS PCL!!!!!!!!!!!! OPEN YOUR EYES!....

 

[PCL_128]

You only reach peak oil for the world once......

People (the same people, in many cases) were saying the exact same thing in the mid '70s.

 

[Lear70]

Wonder what PCL did to get a FI vacation?

Either way, I've been saying this for months. Oil peak near $150 at 4th of July, drop down to around $100-110 by late Fall and stay there for a while to come.

Just hope my prediction continues to be accurate, for all our sakes.

 

[jetflyer]

Energy Stocks have just hit bottom.
The Energy Stock Index($OIX) is down 20% from its highs and just bounced off a trendline that has been in effect since 2003.

Even when crude oil continues its slide down to around $110 energy stocks are going to start consolidating for the next run up.

2 steps forward. 1 step back. This step back is over.

Energy stocks right now are a bargain! They're equal to year ago levels right now!

Please, I beg you guys to diversify some of your money out of regular US stocks and bonds. You should in my opinion put a LOT of your money in energy and also in precious metals or other commodities.

At least be more heavily in FOREIGN stocks if you are against holding energy and other commodity funds.

I put a lot of work into this below:

The Top Energy Mutual Funds ranked by 1 Year Return according to Morningstar:
BlackRock Global Resource
Dreyfus Premier Natural Resource
Van Eck Global Hard Asset
AIM Energy A
Jennison Natural Resource
Columbia Energy & Nat Resource
Rydex Energy Services A
Aberdeen Natural Resource
Fidelity Select Natural Resource
Guinness Atkinson Global Energy
Fidelity Select Energy
Franklin Natural Resource
Morgan Stanley Natural Resource
T. Rowe Price New Era
RS Global Natural Resource
ING Global Resources I
ICON Energy

These funds include stocks such as Exxon, Valero, Peabody, etc. The company stocks held by the funds are from companies involded in oil, coal, natural gas, oil shale, refining, etc.

There are probably a 100 more energy mutual funds. These are just the best according to the criteria I searched on the morningstar fund search tool.

Click on a link to an energy mutual fund above to see what stocks it holds, the contact information for the fund, its performance over the year/3 years/etc. at Morningstar.

Maybe transfer some of your Roth IRA's into one of these or your 401(k). My company has the Fidelity Select Natural Resource fund in the 401(k)....

Of course there was a bust in energy and precious metals in the 1970's. There will be this time too but its at least 5 years off right now. There will be a time to sell......

To diversify is smart!

PLEASE. I want to feel like I'm helping someone!

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

You can see what's currently going on with the Oil Stock Index here:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$oix
Especially look at the Long term SECOND CHART.

You can see discussion from an article by technical analyst Clive Maund of this 5 year long term support trendline in the bottom chart from this January discussion:
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/maund/maund012808.html

There's no better time to buy and diversify.

See ya,
Jet

 

[Wiggums]

Outside of your 401k there is the XLE ETF. Down to around 77 after reaching a high of 91 earlier this year.

 

[coolyokeluke]

People (the same people, in many cases) were saying the exact same thing in the mid '70s.

The oil "shortage" of the 70's was a political shortage. Much different than what's going on today.

 

[jetflyer]

NOW, is the time to invest in energy stocks/mutual funds if you've been thinking about it. The DOW has rebounded. Take some of your gains in that and invest it in energy which is only going to continue to rise.

Barron's agrees with me:

Energy stocks undervalued, rebound seen: Barron's

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The sharp drop in oil and natural gas prices has produced an even sharper pullback in energy stocks, creating what may be one of the best buying opportunities in the sector in several years, according to an article in the August 11 edition of Barron's.

Energy issues have rarely been so inexpensive, relative to oil and gas prices, estimated asset values and earnings, said the report, while adding that barring a collapse in oil and gas, most energy stocks could easily rise 25 percent or more over the next year.

Reuters

Also read this EXCELLENT article by a technical analyst. The stocks are bottoming and about to rise. Crude oil will go down a little further but not much further. The energy stocks have been leading the way down and up for crude oil prices for the last couple years.

Excellent short read with amazing charts of what's going on if you're thinking about investing in energy:
Oil Market Update
Clive Maund Aug 09

To diversify is wise........

I posted this a couple posts up but here it is again:

The Top Energy Mutual Funds ranked by 1 Year Return according to Morningstar:
BlackRock Global Resource
Dreyfus Premier Natural Resource
Van Eck Global Hard Asset
AIM Energy A
Jennison Natural Resource
Columbia Energy & Nat Resource
Rydex Energy Services A
Aberdeen Natural Resource
Fidelity Select Natural Resource
Guinness Atkinson Global Energy
Fidelity Select Energy
Franklin Natural Resource
Morgan Stanley Natural Resource
T. Rowe Price New Era
RS Global Natural Resource
ING Global Resources I
ICON Energy
(click on a link above to find out information about their returns/expenses/etc. and to find out how to contact each investment firm to invest.)

Good skill (not luck) investing,
Jet

 

[PCL_128]

Very bad idea. Oil is heading lower. For good.

 

[jetflyer]

PCL,
I thought you got banned?

 

[JoeMerchant]

Very bad idea. Oil is heading lower. For good.

Why? Did we kill all the evil speculators?

 

[PCL_128]

PCL,
I thought you got banned?

Only temporarily. The man can't keep me down!

 

[PCL_128]

Why? Did we kill all the evil speculators?

Just as with any other bubble, the moron speculators will move on to the next "big thing." Probably about due for that to be some sort of stocks again. My money is mostly going to domestic stocks at this point.

 

[JoeMerchant]

Just as with any other bubble, the moron speculators will move on to the next "big thing." Probably about due for that to be some sort of stocks again. My money is mostly going to domestic stocks at this point.

So it has nothing to do with the dollar or supply? I hope you're right about domestic stocks....I'm fully invested and ready for the pop....are you?

 

[jetflyer]

Excellent news on the Energy front for the USA which has given me a lot of hope for our future in the USA. We can use this natural gas for our cars. Nobody thought these shale formations would yield the amounts of natural gas they are. It's very good for us.


From: USA Today:

Study: U.S. has up to 50% more natural gas than once thought
Updated 7/30/2008 11:25 AM
By Paul Davidson, USA TODAY

U.S. natural gas reserves are far more plentiful than previously estimated, says an industry study being released today — a discovery that heralds a potential remedy to the energy crisis.
The report says the U.S. has up to 50% more natural gas reserves than earlier projections because of higher-than-expected yields from 22 shale formations in 20 states.

The industry says the findings should prod policymakers to provide incentives to wean the nation from $4 gasoline and move to compressed natural gas as a standard fuel in many cars and trucks.

"Everyone knows natural gas is clean and made in America," says Aubrey McLendon, chairman and CEO of Chesapeake Energy, the largest natural gas producer. "The only question was is there enough to go around to run cars and trucks. This proves that there's plenty of natural gas."

The U.S. has enough natural gas resources to last up to 118 years, or 2,247 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), says the study by Navigant Consulting for the American Clean Skies Foundation. That group is largely funded by natural gas companies.

The Potential Gas Committee, an independent research group, estimated in 2006 the U.S. has 1,530 Tcf of gas, an 82-year supply.

The increase stems from greater production in the Marcellus Shale in the Appalachians and the Haynesville Shale in Louisiana and Texas, says Kenneth Medlock, an economics professor at Rice University who worked on the Navigant study.

In recent years new drilling techniques have allowed companies to extract gas deeply embedded in formations of shale rock. The new study is based on estimates by Navigant, state records and a survey of more than 60 large natural-gas producers.

John Curtis, the committee's executive director, would not comment on the new estimates. But he questioned the new report's reliance on his group's study, which did not estimate shale reserves, to reach its higher projections.

Medlock says actual resources are likely less than the 118-year supply estimated by industry but much more than the current 82-year projection.

Oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens recently unveiled a plan to replace 20% of natural gas-fired power plants with wind energy and divert that gas to cars. But McClendon says gas is so abundant there's no need to channel it from power plants. Yet to jump-start the industry, he says, Washington must provide incentives to automakers, service stations and consumers.

If you haven't joined Pickens you need to so that we can have more wind energy, freeing up natural gas for our vehicles.
www.pickensplan.com
109,000 people have joined him to help America become less dependent on imported oil.

The government isn't going to do anything. We the people have to.....

Like T. Boone has been saying: Peak Oil is a major challenge for the world. It's here. There's no doubt about that. We have to move to alternatives to oil now so that we don't see really, really, really high prices.....

Join Pickens!

 

[jetflyer]

Great NEWSWEEK Article just out on Pickens:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/151727/page/1

Despite tangling with Pickens earlier, Smith supports his vision of transforming the great plains into the "Saudi Arabia of wind energy." Pickens says private investors will provide the $1 trillion or so to erect thousands of turbines through the wind corridor stretching from the panhandle to Canada. But it will take Congress and a new president to build a national power grid connecting the wind corridor—as well as the emerging solar corridor across the desert Southwest—to the nation's population centers. It's a challenge Pickens likens to creating the Interstate Highway system in the 1950s. The grid could cost about $200 billion, but compared with the $700 billion exported each year to pay the country's oil tab, says Pickens, "it's a bargain."

Pickens has money. He knows he'll make money off his plan but he says it's not about that. He wants to help America.

Pickens is definitely worried about peak oil which he talks about all the time and wants to help his country overcome it.

You have to admire the man.

He says "DO EVERYTHING" to overcome our "liquid fuels problem" and the best thing right now is to use natural gas for our cars starting with govt vehicles and commercial fleets. To accomplish this we have to replace the natural gas used for electricity in the USA. Solar/ Wind/ Nuclear/ Coal/ Public Transportation/ Conservation/ EVERYTHING needs to be ramped up!

We can do this. Why haven't we already done this!?

Join Pickens! We together can make the government act for once. (I hope!)
www.pickensplan.com

 

[Cobra17]

Pickens is awesome. I loved him in Dr. Strangelove and 1941. Yeeeehawwww!!!!