Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[robair73]

Let's all just gather around in a circle and fart in each other's faces while eating a bag of popcorn.

 

[crxpilot]

Hey where's that whack job "jetflyer"? Haven't seen him in a while. He must be already holed up in his bunker waiting for oil to reach $400 a barrell.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

I figured after yesterdays news this thread would reappear.

 

[tyuwerty]

What news? You mean the discovery in the Gulf?:

"Experts claimed Tiber, in 4,132 feet of water, could increase BP's total US output from 910,000 barrels a day by 200,000 to 1.1million barrels by 2020."

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/09/03/that-s-well-deep-115875-21643992/

It might be a "giant" find, but 200,000 extra barrels a day 10 years down the road doesn't get many people that excited.

Not to mention, it is 35,000 feet down.

 

[Colonel Savage]

Oil would have to be selling for over $100/bbl to be worth the extraction costs.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I said that peak oil was here, and oil would be very expensive, unless there was some unusuall occurrence, like a global economic turndown.

The situation in the last year has only postponed the pain, which I hope has been lessoned because we will have had a year or so to develop alternatives to oil.

cliff
NBO

 

[wrxpilot]

Hi!

I said that peak oil was here, and oil would be very expensive, unless there was some unusuall occurrence, like a global economic turndown.

Wow, what a prediction! Here I thought oil would be "very expensive" yet the world economy would keep humming along at a record pace. Silly me!

 

[jonjuan]

Hi!

I said that peak oil was here

Hi!
And you were wrong

 

[Smarta$$]

Hi!
And you were wrong

How much has oil production increased in the last few years?

 

[jonjuan]

http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm

Peak oil is a scam.

 

[STL717]

Earth's Mantle: Untapped Oil Source?

July 27, 2009 -- Oil, one of the most important, valuable substances on the planet may form in an unexpected place, according to a new study -- the crushing hot furnace of Earth's mantle.
The petroleum we rely on to fuel our cars and heat our homes were formed over millions of years as ancient, dead algae and plankton were compressed in layers of sediment and heated. Because of this, oil companies know to look for new reserves in places that are, or once were shallow marine environments.


Click below for the entire article.
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/07/27/oil-earth-mantle.html

 

[AAflyer]

Hi!

I said that peak oil was here, and oil would be very expensive, unless there was some unusuall occurrence, like a global economic turndown.

The situation in the last year has only postponed the pain, which I hope has been lessoned because we will have had a year or so to develop alternatives to oil.

cliff
NBO

Interesting.... Big oil CEOs on their own accord have said oil should be around $80 a barrel.. No peak... Not yet..

AA

 

[NuGuy]

Heyas,

Anyone check the price of whale oil lately??

Point is, when a resource becomes too expensive, we change resources. The end result was that when the world finally ran out of whale oil, nobody cared.

This goofyness ranks right up there with autism by vaccination, chemtrails and blackholes from the LHC swallowing the earth.

Nu

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

I hope we can change resources fast enough to cause not too much pain!!!

Peak Oil was Jul, 2008, and I don't think we'll ever get much above those numbers...

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 15 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM,Duncan&Youngquist). 95% of the predictions sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% forecast variability area in yellow is computed using a bootstrap technique). The magenta area is the 95% confidence interval for the population-based model. Click to Enlarge.


cliff
NBO
PS-Met FAA guy based in D.C., who said he thought DAL would be coming to NBO relatively soon...???

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Abiotic oil from the Mantle of the earth:

A little research:

Aw Jeez, not this **** again!

New Discovery" is the same, tired old crap. This theory was first proposed in the 1500s, so it is over 500 years old.

Abiogenic petroleum origin is an alternative hypothesis to the prevailing biological origin theory of petroleum origins. Most popular in Russia and Ukraine between the 1950s and 1980s, the abiogenic hypothesis has little support among contemporary petroleum geologists, who argue that abiogenic petroleum does not exist in significant amounts and that there is no indication that an application of the hypothesis is or has ever been of commercial value.
....
Although evidence exists for abiogenic formation of methane and hydrocarbon gases within the Earth, studies indicate they are not produced in commercially significant quantities (.02% of hydrocarbon gases were produced abiogenically)...

Nobody who has studied the subject for more than about 10 minutes disputes that abiotic hydrocarbons exist. Proving something that has been known for well over a century hardly seems like an achievement to me but YMMV. The problem, as has been pointed out repeatedly on this thread, is rate of production.

It doesn't actually matter even one bit how oil is made anyway, because we are pumping it out WAY faster then it was generated in the first place (by a factor of 10,000 at least, maybe a million).
...
Even if its continually renewed by the earth (fat chance), its just not going to be fast enough to matter.

It's amazing how the media can take a scientific paper with very limited and specific conclusion and blow it up into whatever conclusion they want.
What does the paper actually say?
Pressure can convert methane into heavier hydrocarbons. We have observed this in a diamond anvil pressure cell.
That's it, and yes that is perfectly true.
However the media instantly jumps from that to "We're saved, pass the cheetos". No discussion of rates. No discussion of where the methane to be converted is going to come from inside the earth. No discussion of why the existing reservoirs aren't refilling. No critical thought whatsoever.

Secondly I have a background in organic geochemistry and having spent the last 30+ years in the petroleum game...
What indeed is the proof for abiotic orgins......indeed there is none.

The last word...

Please be aware the science for biotic origins (oil was created from living matter) is long lived (since the 40's), well supported by experimental evidence and well supported by direct evidence in the field (match of oils to source rocks). There is a reason that each and every oil company in the world uses this theory for exploration.....it is rock solid (pun not intended). Note that these oil companies are not staffed by people unfamiliar with the science, Exxon, Shell, Statoil, Total etc. have 10's of Phd's in organic geochemistry on their research staff.

Focusing on positive, new technologies that will help improve our life, such as ANY of the alternative energy technologies, is more beneficial than hoping we can live in the past, of artificially cheap oil.

cliff
NBO
​

 

[atpcliff]

And now...

Peak Coal:
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/05/11/peak-coal-energy-print.html

 

[RedRum]

There are whistle blowers though.
--There are politicians, like Roscoe Bartlett giving many speeches about peak oil to Congress.


--There are oil men, like Matthew Simmons, who is a Bush and Cheney friend writing books about the decline of Saudi Arabia's oil coming now.

Are you kidding me?

Looks like you have missed the forest for the trees.

Instead of going to your CIA documents, why don't you have a look at your so-called "whistle-blowers"

Here is anaxcerpt from Roscoe Bartlett's site:

His goal as a Congressman? "I'm not interested in politics," says Dr. Bartlett. "I'm interested in my country. I am a conservative who wants to help restore the limited federal government envisioned and established in the Constitution by our nation's founders. I want to ensure that future generations of Americans will have the same opportunities for success that I did." He frequently quotes from the Constitution which he carries at all times for guidance in crafting national policy. "Upholding the Constitution, including the entire Bill of Rights, and maintaining a strong defense should be our priorities. If we don't get these priorities right, nothing else will matter."

I am all for a strong defense, but when it comes to a conservative talking about peak oil, the discussion is over as far as I am concerned. What a joke. We are not short on oil, there is NO conspiracy. Do you really think that "THEY" would be able to pull the wool over everyone's eyes?

At the rate we are consuming oil, there is definitely NO shortage. Speculators are getting greedy on this self-imposed hysteria. It's staring us right in the face, you just have to dig a little deeper to understand what is going on. Money makes the world go round and round and this is self-evident with a clueless lawmaker making absolutely baseless accusations.

Let's see some facts, numbers...anything. Peak oil is a sham.

 

[crxpilot]

You only reach peak oil for the world once......

Where oh where is our lunatic friend, jetflyer?

 

[Secret Squirrel]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Don't bring this thread back to life!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[robair73]

What happened to peak oil?! Remember that crap?!