Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[Soverytired]

Solar panels alone or panels with wind turbines can recharge your car easily once installed thereby negagting all your excuses above (and batteries can be recycled).

NEXT.....

I see. So if you live in the 1/2 two 2/3 rds of the country that can't reliably produce solar, you'll just hope for a sunny day? For wind power, the outlook is more bleak.

Not to mention the fact that solar panels are expensive (especially compared to coal or nuclear).

I like solar and wind. Do some research though, because while it's part of an integrated solution, it's not THE solution. Especially for motor transport.

Frankly, it's non-serious "lets just use magic fuel "X" talk that keeps anything from getting done.

 

[jetflyer]

It is very important to try to wrap your brain around to understand this very important NET EXPORT problem that is happening even before we've passed Peak Oil:

(Essentially it's like we've already passed peak oil because of this)

Here's a Wall Street Journal article about the AVAILABLE oil on the world markets and how it's decreasing year by year right now......


WALL STREET JOURNAL:
Oil Exporters Are Unable To Keep Up With Demand (most likely behind paywall - trying to find free link)

The world's top oil producers are proving unable to put more barrels on thirsty world markets despite sky-high prices, a shift that defies traditional market logic and looks set to continue.

Fresh data from the U.S. Department of Energy show the amount of petroleum products shipped by the world's top oil exporters fell 2.5% last year, despite a 57% increase in prices, a trend that appears to be holding true this year as well.

There are several reasons behind the net-export decline. Soaring profits from high-price crude have fueled a boom in oil demand in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East, leaving less oil for export. At the same time, aging fields and sluggish investments have caused exports to drop significantly in Mexico, Norway and, most recently, Russia. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also cut production early last year and didn't move to boost supplies again until last fall.

In all, according to the Energy Department figures, net exports by the world's top 15 suppliers, which account for 45% of all production, fell by nearly a million barrels to 38.7 million barrels a day last year. The drop would have been steeper if not for heightened output in less-developed countries such as Angola and Libya, whose economies have yet to become big energy consumers.

Bottom Line: The price is going up because there's less oil on the world market and this trend is continuing. We're having to outbid the world for oil, hence the price goes up.

The BIDDING WAR will continue with the bids getting higher and higher as there is less and less available to import.

Simple Econ 101: Supply/Demand

The higher the price goes up the more money these exporters like Saudi/UAE/Qatar/Russia/etc. make stimulating their economies causing their internal demand for oil to go up.
Not helping things is the fact many of these exporters heavily subsidize the oil price practically giving it away free to their people!!

Nobody considers the oil exporters when considering demand but they're an even bigger player for demand than China/India right now.....

Jet

 

[crxpilot]

I see. So if you live in the 1/2 two 2/3 rds of the country that can't reliably produce solar, you'll just hope for a sunny day? For wind power, the outlook is more bleak.

Not to mention the fact that solar panels are expensive (especially compared to coal or nuclear).

I like solar and wind. Do some research though, because while it's part of an integrated solution, it's not THE solution. Especially for motor transport.

Frankly, it's non-serious "lets just use magic fuel "X" talk that keeps anything from getting done.

I think you are the one who needs to do the research buddy. And take your blinders off.

 

[jetflyer]

double post

 

[jetflyer]

In the article from the WSJ is a map and graph titled "SHIPPING LESS" which I can't paste in this forum. I've reproduced it below.

Wall Street Journal:
SHIPPING LESS
Top 15 Exporters of Oil with their EXPORTS OF OIL and their Gain or Loss in EXPORTS for 2007 compared to 2006:

1) Saudi Arabia
7,923,000 barrels a day with a loss of
602,000 barrels a day from 2006 (Saudi past
peak?- Many think so)
2) Russia
7,018,000 with gain of 152,000 (Falling
drastically this year even according to WSJ)
3) U.A.E.
2,548,000 with loss of 16,000
4) Norway
2,321,000 with loss of 221,000 (ikes-Red Sea
fields are way past their peak oil)
5) Iran
2,298,000 with loss of 165,000 (Iran is past peak
according to many- Do they need nuclear?
Probably!...
6) Kuwait
2,268,000 with loss of 73,000
7) Nigeria
2,040,000 with loss of 90,000
8) Venezuela
2,024,000 with loss of 158,000
9) Algeria
1,862,000 with loss of 20,000
10) Angola
1,707,000 with loss of 328,000
11) Libya
1,552,000 with loss of 22,000
12) Iraq
1,484,000 with gain of 47,000
13) Mexico
1,456,000 with loss of 255,000
14) Kazakhstan
1,193,000 with loss of 49,000
15) Qatar
1,011,000 with loss of 21,000

Wall Street Journal:

Net oil exports from the world's top 15 exporters- nearly half of all the world's supply-fell almost one million barrels a day in 2007, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration

Once again the exports are declining leaving us importers with less supply to use because:
1) Their economies are booming causing them to use their own oil and export less
2) Many of them are past their peak oil especially Mexico and Norway giving them less oil to start with.

Let the Bidding Wars continue.......

Please tell me somebody gets that this is a big deal, even as big as passing peak oil!? The WSJ says the trend is continuing and probably worsening because Russia is joining the countries with losses now.

PCL_128? CRXpilot?
Anyone?

Jet

 

[Smacktard]

I see. So if you live in the 1/2 two 2/3 rds of the country that can't reliably produce solar, you'll just hope for a sunny day? For wind power, the outlook is more bleak.

Not to mention the fact that solar panels are expensive (especially compared to coal or nuclear).

I like solar and wind. Do some research though, because while it's part of an integrated solution, it's not THE solution. Especially for motor transport.

Frankly, it's non-serious "lets just use magic fuel "X" talk that keeps anything from getting done.

Facts don't get in the way of people that spew on about wind and solar. Solar currently makes up 0.2% of the grid and costs more than 10 times as much. That solar powered iPhone you want, ohh, it will require almost 1 million times the solar power of that Timex watch you're still wearing...

 

[jetflyer]

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Somebody. Smacktard or anyone else,
Do you get why my last two posts from the WSJ article are a big deal?

I really don't like talking to myself as much as it appears I do....

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

I found a free link to the entire Wall Street Journal article:
http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2008/05/29/oil-exporters-are-unable-to-keep-up-with-demand/

Here is the closing sentence to the article:

“The sense in the market is that peak oil is here and that things will only get worse,” says Mr. Robinson. “But the verdict is still out on that.”

Let's hope not......

 

[jetflyer]

WOW!!! The new inventory numbers are out. Scary, unexpected drops in crude oil and in gasoline inventories!!?

. Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending May 23, 2008

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 15.3 million barrels per day during the week ending May 23,up 214 thousand barrels per day from the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 87.9 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production moved higher compared to the previous week, averaging about 9.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.3 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.0 million barrels per day last week, down 278 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged nearly 9.7 million barrels per day, 579 thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 250 thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories(excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 8.8 million barrels from the previous week.
At 311.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. The drop was due to temporary delays in crude oil tanker off-loadings on the Gulf Coast.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels last week, and are near the lower limit of the average range.
Finished gasoline inventories remained unchanged last week while gasoline blending components inventories decreased during this same time. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels, and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week but remain near the bottom of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 9.7 million barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.5 million barrels per day, down by 0.7 percent compared to the similar period last year.
Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million barrels per day, down by 0.4 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel demand (DIESEL/HEATING OIL) has averaged 4.1 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 1.2 percent from the same period last year.
Jet fuel demand is 2.9 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

Not filling the SPR really helped!

And what demand destruction? 0.4 percent drop in gasoline usage year over year is a rounding error, not demand destruction, and diesel demand keeps going up!

I keep seeing these conflicting accounts from some groups that gasoline usage has gone down. The proof is in the EIA numbers. Not happening by much at all yet....

 

[jetflyer]

Notice that after the VERY BULLISH inventory report came out that said oil inventories dropped by the most in 3 and a half years the oil price spiked up past $133 and then quickly dropped to now in the $127's?

This is VERY BEARISH for West Texas Intermediate Crude in the short run . Good news for the price of oil is no longer causing the oil price to rise. This is just more proof that the price of oil will be going down for a while to work off the overbought condition that oil is in.

Jet

 

[PCL_128]

Too bad you can't buy the diesel version here, if you can get 24 out of the V8 then you'd be sure to get 40-45 from the diesel.

I'd love a diesel version! I'm a big fan of modern diesel technology. Unfortunately, for diesel to make a big rally here in the states, the feds will have to reduce diesel regulation. I just don't see it happening.

Your car is still a gas guzzler, if you'd bought an Accord and drove it in the same manner you'd get 40mpg too. Sure it's not union built, but the Accord is just as American as the 300C, probably more so.

I don't care where a car is built or where the parts are built. I care who builds it. If union workers aren't building it, then I'm not interested. Besides, the Accord is too small for my taste. I like bigger cars.

 

[PCL_128]

Also, the on board computers for MPG's are notoriously innacurate. The only true way to tell would be pen and paper math.

I've done the old-fashioned math. The OBC is dead on.

 

[jetflyer]

Investment tip:
Want to take advantage of peak oil and the global energy crisis that is developing?

Buy gold and gold mining stocks and mutual funds today or in the next few days. The price is bottoming and all the mutual funds are within about 5% of their 200 day moving averages. Gold will do as well as energy in my opinion.

My favorites:
Tocqueville Gold Fund
Fidelity Select Gold Fund
Oppenheimer Gold and Special Minerals Fund
There are a lot of other really good ones.

The time to buy energy stocks and mutual funds is still a couple weeks away.

Eventually like in the 1970's-1980's there will be a time to sell your energy and gold stocks/mutual funds. That time is a long ways away.

 

[jetflyer]

The Wall Street Journal article contained some of the most important information possible in my opinion concerning the future supply and demand for oil and there hasn't been one response to it all day.

Is it too much to ask for someone to comment? Am I making too big of a deal out of it?

I figurerd it out:
I'm on EVERYONE'S IGNORE LIST!!
Can't blame y'all!

 

[Soverytired]

I think you are the one who needs to do the research buddy. And take your blinders off.

I've done quite a bit, actually. The format of a chat board does not lend itself to lengthy explanations.

If you truly believe that all or a significant portion of motor transport in the US could be quickly replaced by battery powered cars charged by solar panels and wind farms, I will simply say that I disagree, as does nearly every serious expert who deals with this subject.

 

[Soverytired]

The Wall Street Journal article contained some of the most important information possible in my opinion concerning the future supply and demand for oil and there hasn't been one response to it all day.

Is it too much to ask for someone to comment? Am I making too big of a deal out of it?

I figurerd it out:
I'm on EVERYONE'S IGNORE LIST!!
Can't blame y'all!

Denial baby, denial.

Everyone here wants to think that this is cyclical, and things are going to get better.

They will eventually, of course. The questions are how long will it take (years or decades?), what will it look like when it's over, and how much pain will there be in the interim?

Remember, there are numerous "Peak Oil" scenarios; some catastrophic, some not so bad. It will probably be somewhere in the middle. Not unlike the climate change freaks . . . there is some truth to what they're saying, but when guys like AG constantly look at improbable worst case scenarios, they look (and are) NUTS.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst and all that.

 

[tyuwerty]

The Wall Street Journal article contained some of the most important information possible in my opinion concerning the future supply and demand for oil and there hasn't been one response to it all day.

Is it too much to ask for someone to comment? Am I making too big of a deal out of it?

I figurerd it out:
I'm on EVERYONE'S IGNORE LIST!!
Can't blame y'all!

Jet, the trend is still up long term for oil, but I think the following explains some of the drop after today's inventories came out:

Crude oil inventories declined 8.88 million barrels to 311.6 million last week, the department reported. It was the biggest drop since Sept. 17, 2004 when Hurricane Ivan forced the closing of U.S. oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. The decline was caused by ``temporary delays'' in unloading tankers, the department said.

Oil traded at $129.23 a barrel, down $1.80, before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington. Futures rose more than $2 from yesterday's close to $133.12 a barrel after the report's release.

``The initial reaction to the numbers was a big jump,'' said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas in New York. ``There are a lot of questions about the numbers, which explains why prices didn't stay up at those levels.''

Early Release

The Energy Department made its weekly supply report available on its Web site before the scheduled release time, Jonathan Cogan, a department spokesman said in a note. Initial indications suggest a malfunction in the system that allows the loading of data while keeping it from public view before the scheduled release time, he said.

``The report just doesn't seem to make sense,'' said Christopher Edmonds, the managing principal of FIG Partners Energy Research & Capital Group in Atlanta. ``I can't help but wonder if next week there will be a reaction and we'll get a large inventory build.''


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&sid=aKexHPkdLi04&refer=commodity_futures

 

[jetflyer]

``The report just doesn't seem to make sense,'' said Christopher Edmonds, the managing principal of FIG Partners Energy Research & Capital Group in Atlanta. ``I can't help but wonder if next week there will be a reaction and we'll get a large inventory build.''


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&sid=aKexHPkdLi04&refer=commodity_futures

Let's hope there is that large build next week. That would help the price of oil go even lower....

I think though, when a market is overbought like oil was that even bullish news will be bearish. The traders are just LOOKING for a reason to make the oil price go down.

They did the exact same thing when the price of oil was going up. Looked for any excuse....

 

[Larcifer]

Technical pull back to around the low 120's is more than likely what we are seeing. Could be wrong though

 

[Larcifer]

Oops double post.