Jet Fuel Prices WILL Be Climbing A LOT, and Soon

[deepwater]

Jet i have to agree with you,on this trade, taking my profits off the table in DIG and hope to rebuy it in the
$100 range which looks like the new floor. technicals
show an overbought sector and it looks like a little bit
of churn before the drop. Fundamentally, long term
I dont know if we are at peak oil yet or it is in the near future. What i do see is the easy oil has been recovered. Now it is getting much harder to retreive
it, harder and more expensive to refine it, more expensive to transport it, lack of excess refining capacity, old fields declining as quick as new ones are brought online, and a billion Chinese who want a car, only 1 in 70 have one now, etc. Is it the end of the world? no just a different one where we will adapt with smaller cars, alternate energy etc meaning in the end a lower standard of living.
what does it mean for our industry? More bankruptcy, mergers and possibly less people flying.
I just hope we don't end up in another 70's stagflation economy or worse. I'm going to quit
typing before I depress myself.

 

[jetflyer]

deepwater,

I think you're right about the pullback and how things will turn out. It's not the end of the world. Society will not break down. Life will go on. We're just enterting a new world where people will pay more for energy, food, plastics, and other petroleum products, etc.

I think we'll all be a little poorer because of the inflation but life will go on.

Preparing yourself for hard economic times is about the only thing one can do.

Jet

 

[PCL_128]

deepwater,

I think you're right about the pullback and how things will turn out. It's not the end of the world. Society will not break down. Life will go on. We're just enterting a new world where people will pay more for energy, food, plastics, and other petroleum products, etc.

I think we'll all be a little poorer because of the inflation but life will go on.

Preparing yourself for hard economic times is about the only thing one can do.

Jet

A very reasonable post from you. Good to see.

 

[jetflyer]

Peak Oil was all over CNBC yesterday.

The author of the US Govt DOE funded Study on Peak Oil Robert Hirsch spoke about peak oil on CNBC. He basically said alternatives aren't going to cut it and oil production totals will fall in the future.
Watch here:
Dr. Hirsch Discusses Peak Oil on CNBC

Then legendary Texas oil man T. Boone Pickens spoke about the world having reached peak oil on CNBC.
Watch here:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=747990771

The traders on Wall Street are starting to believe in peak oil. Read below:
Financial Times:

.Shortage fears push oil futures near $140

By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London
Published: May 20 2008 19:06 | Last updated: May 21 2008 10:57

Fears of a shortage within five years propelled long-term oil futures prices to almost $140 a barrel, further stoking inflationary pressures in the global economy.

The spot price of Nymex West Texas Intermediate hit a record $130.30 a barrel on Wednesday. On Tuesday investors had rushed to buy oil futures contracts as far forward as December 2016, pushing their prices as high as $139.50 a barrel, up more than $9.50 on the day.

Veteran traders said they had never seen such a jump and said investors were increasingly betting that oil production would soon peak because of geopolitical and geological constraints.

Neil McMahon, of Sanford Bernstein, said: “Peak oil views – regardless of whether right or wrong – are seeping into the market and supporting high prices.”

Anne-Louise Hittle, of Wood Mackenzie, added that investors were shifting their focus from the short-term to the medium-term, where supply fears played a bigger role. Since January, long-term futures oil contracts, such as those for delivery in 2016, have jumped almost 60 per cent, while near-term prices have gone up 35 per cent.

That trend was exacerbated by T. Boone Pickens, the influential investor who believes world oil production is about to peak as aging fields run dry. He warned that oil prices would hit $150 a barrel by the end of the year.

“Eighty-five million barrels of oil a day is all the world can produce, and the demand is 87m,” Mr Pickens told CNBC. “It’s just that simple.”

Mr Pickens’s view is still in the minority in the oil industry. But concerns over future oil supplies are fast moving into the mainstream and influencing investors.

Politicians have expressed concern that speculators are forcing prices higher and Joseph Lieberman, the influential senator, said he was considering legislation to limit big institutional investors in commodities markets.

Some energy executives have warned that geopolitical supply constraints will mean production will not be able to match demand as early as 2012 to 2015.

This comes as demand, especially from China, is set to continue to grow, while that of the US slows. Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank, said: “The price is going to go up until governments that subsidise oil consumption in Asia and the Middle East can no longer afford it.”

So far China is doing the opposite, having recently retrenched subsidies. Analysts say Chinese demand could surge further as the country faces shortages of coal and hydropower.

Nervousness about Chinese energy demand was exacerbated on Tuesday when officials said 32 power plants had been forced to close because of coal shortages.

PetroChina and Sinopec, the two biggest domestic oil groups, also have diverted fuel supplies to the quake-hit Sichuan region.

Even with all that said the price should come down soon even though we just reached $130/barrel!!

 

[Lear70]

Even with all that said the price should come down soon even though we just reached $130/barrel!!

Wishful thinking.

We're going to be around $150 a brl come 4th of July.

I'm betting the correction comes somewhere between $150 and $200, about the beginning of 2009, and stays around $100-$110 for a long time to come.

The only way we'll adjust is if we negotiate higher wages to compensate for the higher cost of living. Most pilot wages (except SWA) haven't kept up with inflation AT ALL over the last 20 years, and now it's about to get a whole lot worse.

Something is going to have to give,,,

 

[jetwash]

I think the prices will rise but gradually like they have the past few years, but never receeding to their previous years lows.




Oil prices fall but hold above US$59 a barrel ahead of U.S. inventory data


The Associated Press
Published: February 22, 2007
LONDON: Oil prices fell but held above US$59 a barrel Thursday ahead of U.S. government inventory data expected to show crude stockpiles rose.
Markets were also watching developments in the Middle East, with the stage being set for a fresh showdown between Iran and Western powers over the nation's nuclear program.
Light, sweet crude for April delivery fell 41 cents to US$59.66 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. Brent crude for April was down 20 cents at US$59.15 a barrel............

Just a news article quote from the first page of this thread a little over a year ago...

$ 59.66 / barrel Feb 22, 2007

$ 130 / barrel May 21, 2008 Today



$ 260 / barrel ?????? May 2009 ?????????

We can't afford not to start conserving oil.


Jetflyer,

Keep on posting, maybe when oil gets to $ 300/ barrel in the next 3 years people will start to realize what you have been trying to say. ( but I somehow doubt it)

 

[vixin]

Wishful thinking.

The only way we'll adjust is if we negotiate higher wages to compensate for the higher cost of living. Most pilot wages (except SWA)While our wages are good they havent kept up with inflation either. We have had a pay freeze for two years now. We are only on top because we havent had to take concessions, as so many point out. haven't kept up with inflation AT ALL over the last 20 years, and now it's about to get a whole lot worse.

Something is going to have to give,,,

..........

 

[jetflyer]

Jetflyer,

Keep on posting, maybe when oil gets to $ 300/ barrel in the next 3 years people will start to realize what you have been trying to say. ( but I somehow doubt it)

I'm just trying to help people. I hope I can help more people before the price gets to $300!

I get attacked a lot but I can only hope some people have listened to me and changed jobs, bought a hybrid, invested in energy and gold, decided to get the smaller home, etc.

Am I a bad guy for telling people about something that I believe is so important to our world?

3 years ago when I started telling people about this I had high hopes of our government changing course and doing things to help avoid hard times. The idiots in Washington have only made things worse in those three years.

I've written my congressmen and shouted this message from the top of hills. I don't think it's made that much of a difference but maybe there's one family out there that will drastically benefit from my advice. I can only hope...

I have to add this. I saw "Evan Almighty" the other day. I kind of feel like Steve Carrells' Noah warning about the great flood he knows is coming...... Everyone laughs at him but he knows he's right. Eventually the flood comes. Be ready for the flood!

Doesn't want to scare people(only help),
Jet

 

[Correcting]

I think it's almost impossible barring the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz or war with Iran that oil will rise above about $132 without a pretty good drop first. It looks like the topping process is happening now. We're simply too overbought according to the MACD. You have to get new buyers willing to buy.

Uh oh Jetflyer, looks like you were on the wrong side of that bet. Oil closed at $133.17 today and is already over $135 in after hours trading.

 

[11thHour]

I get attacked a lot but I can only hope some people have listened to me and changed jobs, bought a hybrid, invested in energy and gold, decided to get the smaller home, etc.

I must admit, I have serious, serious doubts about the long-term outlook of my career as a pilot, due to energy and economic environments, and deep inside I hear a small voice telling me I should get out now. When you say 'changed jobs', did you mean out of the airline pax biz.. or flying all together? I haven't followed your posts, but after reading this entire thread (really!) I like what you have to say and agree with you mostly.

 

[jetflyer]

I went to a fractional 2 1/2 years ago. I don't know what else I'd do without going back to school.

Health care/ Energy will be good fields to be in. There will always be a need for pilots though.

There is a lot of evidence we're close to peak huh? If we're not there now we're within 2-5 years.

I did blow the last call on oil. I think today was the blow off top though. Everyone thinks the price is going to $200 tomorrow. There's just too many people bullish right now and that's why we're about to fall in price.

Oil stocks went down today by about an average 1 percent?! That's one sign the price of oil is at an intermediate top.

 

[crxpilot]

POP...........goes the bubble

its just a matter of time........

Oil Companies Say Prices Should Be $35-$90 a Barrel (Update2)

By Tina Seeley
May 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. oil company executives told Congress oil prices should be between $35 a barrel and $90 a barrel, as they testified for the second time this year about record energy prices.
The price of oil should be ``somewhere between $35 and $65 a barrel,'' John Hofmeister, president of Shell Oil Co., the Houston-based subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell Plc, said at a Senate hearing today. Other executives said prices should be as much as $90 a barrel.
Representatives of the five largest publicly traded oil companies appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee to testify on record energy prices. Appearing today alongside Hofmeister were representatives of BP Plc, ConocoPhillips, Chevron Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp.
Crude oil futures contracts touched $133.82 a barrel today on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since trading began in 1983. Average U.S. retail gasoline prices hit a record $3.791 a gallon this week, according to the U.S. Energy Department.
Congress last week approved legislation to halt deliveries to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in an effort to respond to record prices.
Today's committee hearing marks the second time the executives have gathered to testify before Congress this year, after an April 1 hearing of the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.
`No Idea'
John Lowe, executive vice president of ConocoPhillips, said the price should be ``about $90 a barrel in this environment.''
J. Stephen Simon, senior vice president for Exxon Mobil, said he had ``no idea what the price should be today.'' He testified in April that historical market fundamentals pointed to a $50 a barrel to $55 a barrel oil price.
Peter Robertson, vice chairman of Chevron, said he thought the price was higher than the $35 to $65 figure cited by Hofmeister. He declined to give an exact number.
Robert Malone, president of BP America Inc., the U.S. subsidiary of London-based BP, said ``an oil price in the range of $60'' would be profitable for his company.
The House Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing with the same executives tomorrow.

 

[jetflyer]

CRX,
I agree with you. The oil price has to come down for a correction soon. I don't think there's a bubble though. The fundamentals are too strong for there to be a bubble right now.

Am I the only one getting nervous seeing $135 oil!!?? This is just getting insane.

CNBC is talking about "peak oil theory" way too much for my liking!! I guess I should like it cause it will spur alternatives but it's like the awakening I've always wanted to happen is here and now I want everyone to stay stupid!! I didn't think things would develop as quickly as they are.

Has anyone seen the front page of the WSJ today? The IOE is doing a field by field study, like has been done by other groups, and they will release the study in October. Their preliminary findings say supply/demand are in trouble and we're going to feel the pinch.

Resorting to prayer for the oil price to come down soon!,
Jet

 

[PCL_128]

Even if we are at peak oil, that still doesn't justify current prices. There's at least a $30 speculation premium built into the current price. The speculators always need somewhere to go: tech stocks, real estate, oil, etc... The bubble will pop. Only a matter of time. Will it go back down to $35/bbl? Unlikely. Will it go back below $100/bbl? Very likely.

 

[Soverytired]

CRX,
I agree with you. The oil price has to come down for a correction soon. I don't think there's a bubble though. The fundamentals are too strong for there to be a bubble right now.

Am I the only one getting nervous seeing $135 oil!!?? This is just getting insane.

You're not the only one. I got on the "Peak oil" bandwagon a few years ago myself and have been "downsizing" my lifestyle in an attempt to deal with a likely much, much smaller airline world in the very near future.

Wish I would have put my money where my mouth was, investment wise!

Gotta admit, even I didn't think it would go up quite this fast. There are numerous projection models (best case/worst case) scenarios about the effect of peak oil, and I figured the really bad ones were hyperbolic.

Now, I'm not so sure. Kind of scary. I definitely agree that lining up a backup career is an excellent idea.