It's official, no deal now

[Redmeat]

I believe the merger is going to happen, and that the NWA pilots just shot themselves in the foot. Now mgmt can point the finger at "unions" as not having the best interest of the company in mind. I don't agree with that sentiment, however that is how it will be spun. I speculate DAL/NWA will announce a determination to pursue a merger to basically "save the employees from themselves". You don't captain an airliner by committee and I think it is obvious you don't merge companies by committee either. I can't believe Steenland and Anderson bet everything on a plan to herd cats.

Who knows, maybe by merging the new company would simply slow or stop hiring instead of both companies furloughing. I wouldn't be surprised if such an announcement came tomorrow with the conference.

My new signature!

 

[ACL65PILOT]

I like that...

 

[Schwanker]

No, I am not. I am saying your NWALPA people are idiots. What a great deal, and the distrust between your own group may have scuttled any deal or future deals with benefits thanks to your infighting.
Why was this a great deal? The contract improvements would have been nice while they lasted. Come 2011, I'm guessing our NWA rates will be roughly equal to what the combined company would be able to negotiate at that time. Why would we sell our seniority to capture contract improvements for a 3 year period?
And, Entitlement is ridiculous in this day and age. The USAir Easties thought they deserved DOH thanks to all of their experience, and didn't get it. Your guys feel the same, and you still have a pension(you want it all, DOH and keeping your pension, plus our better work rules, pay raises, new bases etc----).
We're not USAir! In fact I believe NWA's financials will prove to be far superior to those of DAL over the course of the next 5 years. Your thoughts?
Your career expectations are ridiculous, and things changed with age 65 and 9-11. Your future retirements are only guesswork, since you can't get anyone senior to "put it in writing" that they WILL go at age 60.
Our new hires will be at the 50% mark by 2020. I'd venture to guess you won't see significant retirements at DAL until 2020 leaving for significant career stagnation. Or do you still feel DAL will grow so fast the DAL guys will fly up the list at the same relative pace the NWA guys will move up theirs?
It could have been a good deal, and your own MEC and merger comittee really screwed up.
Are you bi-polar? In some posts you claim the NWA guys showed up unprepared and weren't ready to negotiate. On other posts you claim the DAL guys gave their final offer on day one and wouldn't negotiate. Was this or was this not a negotiation? Why did the NWA MEC do to screw the pooch? I think they just saved us from a huge nightmare, especially with the current economic environment and DAL debt we would have to assume as a combined carrier.
Bye Bye--General Lee

Later,
Schwanker

 

[motch]

As an outsider I have to say that it's kind of sad that 2 ALPA carriers could not come to an agreement for merging the senioriy lists.

One of two things will probably happen now, or in the future -

1) The management teams will still push a merger through as both pilot groups are represented by the same National union. Thereby forcing the issue under ALPA merger policy. Giving up any incentives the companies had on the table originally. Gut feeling is that NWA pilots will lose more than DAL pilots at that point. Compared to gains that could have been gotten.

2) The airlines go it alone and somebody ends up in Ch11 again. As much as I hate to say it.. think NWA would be there before DAL. If any of the legacy airlines end up back in Ch11, think the possiblity of a PanAm, TWA type outcome is very good... unfortunately.

Time will tell. If either of those two options happen, the pilots will actually only have themselves to blame. Like I said, I don't have a horse in this race, but do have one in the barn. Interesting times we are living in.

Goodluck everyone
Motch

 

[General Lee]

Originally Posted by General Lee
No, I am not. I am saying your NWALPA people are idiots. What a great deal, and the distrust between your own group may have scuttled any deal or future deals with benefits thanks to your infighting.
Why was this a great deal? The contract improvements would have been nice while they lasted. Come 2011, I'm guessing our NWA rates will be roughly equal to what the combined company would be able to negotiate at that time. Why would we sell our seniority to capture contract improvements for a 3 year period?

Sell your seniority? Your career expectations have changed, and high oil is about to change a lot. Nothing is certain in this industry, and a merger with AMR would have shot your seniority advantage out of the water. Is that what you would have wanted? AMR is now looking at you, and that is why your MEC came crying back to ours. That is a fact. Guys hired in the early 90s are mid level FOs on the MD80 and 738 at AMR. They would love to be a Captain on your DC9s.

And, Entitlement is ridiculous in this day and age. The USAir Easties thought they deserved DOH thanks to all of their experience, and didn't get it. Your guys feel the same, and you still have a pension(you want it all, DOH and keeping your pension, plus our better work rules, pay raises, new bases etc----).
We're not USAir! In fact I believe NWA's financials will prove to be far superior to those of DAL over the course of the next 5 years. Your thoughts?

Do you see our management guys worried about our "financials?" I think they have it under control. One reason your financials are good is because you gave up everything to keep your pension. But, you won't acknowledge that when figuring out a combined Seniority list, since we lost pilots when we lost ours. If we merged, you would keep your pension and get our better rules and wages--giving us NO CREDIT for a lost pension that you kept giving up EVERYTHING else.

Your career expectations are ridiculous, and things changed with age 65 and 9-11. Your future retirements are only guesswork, since you can't get anyone senior to "put it in writing" that they WILL go at age 60.
Our new hires will be at the 50% mark by 2020. I'd venture to guess you won't see significant retirements at DAL until 2020 leaving for significant career stagnation. Or do you still feel DAL will grow so fast the DAL guys will fly up the list at the same relative pace the NWA guys will move up theirs?


Again, you have no clue what will happen by 2020. If AMR buys you, there goes that plan. Here are the retirement numbers for you:

NWA RETIREMENTS from a nwa post for their numbers. They had our numbers about 400 short
2009-9,
2010-8,
2012-24,
2013-161,
2014-187,
2015-203,
2016-214,
2017-232,
2018-259,
2019-293,
2020-285,
2021-327,
2022-298,
2023-277,
2024-257,
2025-233,

DAL RETIREMENTS from our list
2013-60,
2014-75,
2015-89,
2016-136,
2017-157,
2018-218,
2019-272,
2020-348,
2021-478,
2022-567,
2023-549,
2024-544,
2025-472


It could have been a good deal, and your own MEC and merger comittee really screwed up.
Are you bi-polar? In some posts you claim the NWA guys showed up unprepared and weren't ready to negotiate. On other posts you claim the DAL guys gave their final offer on day one and wouldn't negotiate. Was this or was this not a negotiation? Why did the NWA MEC do to screw the pooch? I think they just saved us from a huge nightmare, especially with the current economic environment and DAL debt we would have to assume as a combined carrier.

Bi-polar? Only to my Mother-n-law. It is common knowledge that your group was not prepared when they showed up, and the extra observers showed distrust. I love how you keep bringing up "Delta Debt." We just got out of BK. It would have been much worse had we not gone BK. If there is a debt due, I have confidence we are doing something major to address that, like moving more planes to the INTL side and gaining the extra revenue necessary to pay down any debt. If we REALLY needed the money, we would ask our buddy at Air France, who would love to give us money in exchange for some equity---they are willing to do that now with a joint DL/NW merge. But, you and your MEC have that in your brain that your company is a financial powerhouse. Steenland now doesn't think so, and he will be the one you continue to work with, even in 2011 for your next contract. He could have gotten the boot, you would have gotten a raise, and our combo may have been great. Your MEC's lack a preparedness and your ridiculous career expectations based off of pre 9-11 and pre age 65 notions are what really derailed this merger. It may happen anyway, and we may not get the goodies that would have been nice, and an arbitrator will unlikely see DOH as an answer.



Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[PuffDriver]

Why was this a great deal? The contract improvements would have been nice while they lasted. Come 2011, I'm guessing our NWA rates will be roughly equal to what the combined company would be able to negotiate at that time. Why would we sell our seniority to capture contract improvements for a 3 year period?

I'll take a stab at it. The words "I'm guessing". The words "while they lasted". The rates were real, the "signing bonus" real, the board seat real, the increase in retirement real, the work rules real. you are making the same mistake that your negotiators made. You assume that in 3 years the economy will be conducive to your matching of the rates and bennies offered. Your reps did the same thing. For example, our number cruncher showed them how any given pilot on the seniority list at NWA right now would have more career earnings under the Delta proposed list than with NWA going it alone with their retirements. The NWA rep disagreed and showed his math using the NWA list as is now with the NEW pay rates, apparently thinking that the NWA pilots would get both their autonomy as well as all the compensation should the merger go through. Sorry, you don't get both no merger and instant contractual appreciation. Fuzzy math don't fly. This is the mentality that our reps dealt with.

Since we are speculating on the future. Let's speculate on the "worst case scenario". Total US economic meltdown. All airlines BK. Yet there IS no US without airline travel. So the airline industry is reregulated, or even better, nationalized. Who gets to survive? Well, that's a good question, but I doubt a midwest airline with some Asian presence gets the nod. Perhaps Delta does not either, but I'll put $100 on which would be above the other on the list. Now look at the largest airline in the US, and a global powerhouse. A combined DAL/NWA that by itself would send the economy reeling with its disappearance. It is simply too big to be allowed to fail. Your scenario is absolute best case: NWA survives on its own AND has the ability to raise it's pay, work rules, vacation in 2011 by approx 33%. My scenario is worst case. Given the circumstances today, and neither of us having a crystal ball, I would say my scenario is much more plausible.

We're not USAir! In fact I believe NWA's financials will prove to be far superior to those of DAL over the course of the next 5 years. Your thoughts?

Our new hires will be at the 50% mark by 2020. I'd venture to guess you won't see significant retirements at DAL until 2020 leaving for significant career stagnation. Or do you still feel DAL will grow so fast the DAL guys will fly up the list at the same relative pace the NWA guys will move up theirs?

Are you bi-polar? In some posts you claim the NWA guys showed up unprepared and weren't ready to negotiate. On other posts you claim the DAL guys gave their final offer on day one and wouldn't negotiate. Was this or was this not a negotiation? Why did the NWA MEC do to screw the pooch? I think they just saved us from a huge nightmare, especially with the current economic environment and DAL debt we would have to assume as a combined carrier.

Pretty much all of your assumptions point to a happy, healthy NWA 5-infinity years down the road. have you been keeping current on recent events? With oil where it is NOBODY has a viable business plan. A trip back through ch 11 is likely in the cards. A hookup would preclude that despite the "enormous debt", which of course NW has none of with all of those a/c orders , Delta has.
Nobody is saying you are USAir. it is a merger of equals. Yet you want super seniority. You want credit for retirements but do not want to give up your DB plan for the credit, AND want substantially more of the table money pie DESPITE the hard evidence that your career would be better in the long run financially with the same relative seniority.

The Delta MEC has shown the vision of tomorrow. They singlehandedly changed the way management "slashes and burns" in BK, the took the next step with regard to a deal like this even being considered--with pilots taking an ACTIVE role in mergers rather than a reactive, they have spurned the usual INACTION of ALPA national with regard to these items, they have seen the future and are actively engaged on an international level with foreign pilots which will ease relations when, not if, globalization knocks on the aviation sector, and the proof of all of this is the laggard MECs at just about every other airline following in the Delta MECs footsteps.

This was not a negotiation. It was not a give a little, meet in the middle. It was more like an emergency meeting of minds to see if a deal could be hammered out. Taking a "negotiation" posture displays the kind of antagonistic mentality which will be the doom of NWA. G.L. was right. NWA came back a knock'in. If they are smart, they will come again with clear heads. It may be too late anyway. AMR is knock'in now, and they don't ask. They dictate. They've laid low waiting for the shakeout, and now it may have arrived.

I think it would have made a hell of an airline, with A.F. joining the mix eventually. A global powerhouse unrivaled. It's just my opinion, but has more tangible substantiation than your unknowns.

 

[Schwanker]

It is common knowledge that your group was not prepared when they showed up, and the extra observers showed distrust. .......Your MEC's lack a preparedness and your ridiculous career expectations.......
Prepared? Prepared for what? Prepared to negotiate or just simply accept a take it or leave it offer? Which is it???

based off of pre 9-11 and pre age 65 notions are what really derailed this merger. It may happen anyway, and we may not get the goodies that would have been nice, and an arbitrator will unlikely see DOH as an answer.
I don't believe anyone was expecting a straight DOH SLI--especially from the top 50% of the list. I would assume it would go closer to DOH as it nears the bottom. From the limited info I have that I presume to be credible, NWA guys will do much better under arbitration than the "assumed" DAL position.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Schwanker

 

[Truckdriver]

"Your career expectations are ridiculous, and things changed with age 65 and 9-11. Your future retirements are only guesswork, since you can't get anyone senior to "put it in writing" that they WILL go at age 60.
Our new hires will be at the 50% mark by 2020. I'd venture to guess you won't see significant retirements at DAL until 2020 leaving for significant career stagnation. Or do you still feel DAL will grow so fast the DAL guys will fly up the list at the same relative pace the NWA guys will move up theirs?"

Schwanker,

You obviously have not looked at both sides and buy into the myth that your retirements are an advantage to you guys over the Delta guys. If they won't sign a statement saying they will leave at 60, I doubt many of them have plans of leaving. With that said, I'm a newhire at DAL and I will hit 50% on the list in 2023 with age 65 and NO additional pilots hired after today. If we hire about 300 more between now and 2020, I'll be at 50% in 2020. If your guys stay past age 60, Delta newhires are better off than those at NWA. Look at the number that GL posted and you can see that DAL retirements are less the next few years, but over the career of a newhire, they are better at Delta. Look at both sides of the retirement story here before you go spouting off about a Delta newhire not moving anywhere for 20 years.

 

[FDJ2]

As far as a deal with DL, it could happen anyway, and your original plan of not be prepared and acting nervous (of yourselves---10 observers for your own merger comittee)--will just point to an airbitrator (your plan all along), and you can blame him/her if it ends up relative seniority (it most likely will---look at USAir).

They wont get relative seniority, they don't bring as much wide bodied flying, their contract is not on par and they will be retiring more aircraft then they will be taking delivery of in the next few years.

 

[Schwanker]

Why was this a great deal? The contract improvements would have been nice while they lasted. Come 2011, I'm guessing our NWA rates will be roughly equal to what the combined company would be able to negotiate at that time. Why would we sell our seniority to capture contract improvements for a 3 year period?

I'll take a stab at it. The words "I'm guessing". The words "while they lasted". The rates were real, the "signing bonus" real, the board seat real, the increase in retirement real, the work rules real. you are making the same mistake that your negotiators made. You assume that in 3 years the economy will be conducive to your matching of the rates and bennies offered. Your reps did the same thing. For example, our number cruncher showed them how any given pilot on the seniority list at NWA right now would have more career earnings under the Delta proposed list than with NWA going it alone with their retirements. The NWA rep disagreed and showed his math using the NWA list as is now with the NEW pay rates, apparently thinking that the NWA pilots would get both their autonomy as well as all the compensation should the merger go through. Sorry, you don't get both no merger and instant contractual appreciation. Fuzzy math don't fly. This is the mentality that our reps dealt with.

Since we are speculating on the future. Let's speculate on the "worst case scenario". Total US economic meltdown. All airlines BK. Yet there IS no US without airline travel. So the airline industry is reregulated, or even better, nationalized. Who gets to survive? Well, that's a good question, but I doubt a midwest airline with some Asian presence gets the nod. Perhaps Delta does not either, but I'll put $100 on which would be above the other on the list. Now look at the largest airline in the US, and a global powerhouse. A combined DAL/NWA that by itself would send the economy reeling with its disappearance. It is simply too big to be allowed to fail. Your scenario is absolute best case: NWA survives on its own AND has the ability to raise it's pay, work rules, vacation in 2011 by approx 33%. My scenario is worst case. Given the circumstances today, and neither of us having a crystal ball, I would say my scenario is much more plausible.

We're not USAir! In fact I believe NWA's financials will prove to be far superior to those of DAL over the course of the next 5 years. Your thoughts?

Our new hires will be at the 50% mark by 2020. I'd venture to guess you won't see significant retirements at DAL until 2020 leaving for significant career stagnation. Or do you still feel DAL will grow so fast the DAL guys will fly up the list at the same relative pace the NWA guys will move up theirs?

Are you bi-polar? In some posts you claim the NWA guys showed up unprepared and weren't ready to negotiate. On other posts you claim the DAL guys gave their final offer on day one and wouldn't negotiate. Was this or was this not a negotiation? Why did the NWA MEC do to screw the pooch? I think they just saved us from a huge nightmare, especially with the current economic environment and DAL debt we would have to assume as a combined carrier.

Pretty much all of your assumptions point to a happy, healthy NWA 5-infinity years down the road. have you been keeping current on recent events? With oil where it is NOBODY has a viable business plan. A trip back through ch 11 is likely in the cards. A hookup would preclude that despite the "enormous debt", which of course NW has none of with all of those a/c orders , Delta has.
Nobody is saying you are USAir. it is a merger of equals. Yet you want super seniority. You want credit for retirements but do not want to give up your DB plan for the credit, AND want substantially more of the table money pie DESPITE the hard evidence that your career would be better in the long run financially with the same relative seniority.

The Delta MEC has shown the vision of tomorrow. They singlehandedly changed the way management "slashes and burns" in BK, the took the next step with regard to a deal like this even being considered--with pilots taking an ACTIVE role in mergers rather than a reactive, they have spurned the usual INACTION of ALPA national with regard to these items, they have seen the future and are actively engaged on an international level with foreign pilots which will ease relations when, not if, globalization knocks on the aviation sector, and the proof of all of this is the laggard MECs at just about every other airline following in the Delta MECs footsteps.

This was not a negotiation. It was not a give a little, meet in the middle. It was more like an emergency meeting of minds to see if a deal could be hammered out. Taking a "negotiation" posture displays the kind of antagonistic mentality which will be the doom of NWA. G.L. was right. NWA came back a knock'in. If they are smart, they will come again with clear heads. It may be too late anyway. AMR is knock'in now, and they don't ask. They dictate. They've laid low waiting for the shakeout, and now it may have arrived.

I think it would have made a hell of an airline, with A.F. joining the mix eventually. A global powerhouse unrivaled. It's just my opinion, but has more tangible substantiation than your unknowns.

You're right. DAL is better. NWA should have just folded. Heck, maybe if we beg DAL will allow NWA to be stapled to the bottom of their list!!! It's so nice of the DAL MEC to be so balanced and right down the middle with their career expectations of both seniority lists! DAL rules!!!

Schwanker

 

[jke406]

ding ding ding!!

we have a winner!

 

[Schwanker]

"With that said, I'm a newhire at DAL and I will hit 50% on the list in 2023 with age 65 and NO additional pilots hired after today.

With only about 1000 retirements between now and 2020 in a 7000 pilot seniority list, that would put a new hire at number 6000. So you only need to hire another 6000 pilots for a 12,000 pilot seniority list to get to the 50% mark. Maybe that growth the General predicts will come true. Good Luck!

Schwanker

 

[PuffDriver]

You're right. DAL is better. NWA should have just folded. Heck, maybe if we beg DAL will allow NWA to be stapled to the bottom of their list!!! It's so nice of the DAL MEC to be so balanced and right down the middle with their career expectations of both seniority lists! DAL rules!!!

Schwanker

I guess that you have nothing worth anything to add. Nobody said Delta is better than NWA. What I did say is that the future does not bode well as it looks today. All of your great scenarios are based on NWA being BK free by 2011 AND in a position to give you 33% above your contract. The Delta MEC is quite aware of the real life shaping up in the now. I am not saying that NWA is going to fold, I am saying that your career progression going it alone is not going to come to fruition. You assume only retirements, when in real life they will likely be offset by the parking of a fleet. It has already been thrown out there by people in the know. You say Delta presented a list from which there was no bargaining. In a way, you are correct. They presented a list that showed how much better any given NWA pilot will be with the merger and the list as is AS WELL AS any given Delta pilot. No one gains more, no one gains less. that is the core issue with ALPA merger policy. Try and stick to the issues as opposed to emotional rhetoric. There is way too much at stake. Of course, it may be too late already, in which case all of this is just mud-slinging and fire away.

 

[ironspud]

It's likely crap, but on another message board it was "reported" that the NWA proposal had 30 DL pilots in the top 2000 numbers and DL would own all of the bottom 2000 numbers (of the combined list). Can this honestly be true? Very APA-esq if true.

 

[nwaredtail]

It's likely crap, but on another message board it was "reported" that the NWA proposal had 30 DL pilots in the top 2000 numbers and DL would own all of the bottom 2000 numbers (of the combined list). Can this honestly be true? Very APA-esq if true.

These guys know absolutely D*CK about any proposals that were passed. Ignore them and please realize not all NWA and DAL pilots are as arrogant and full of crap as these people.

I find it laughable that the General and Puff think that NWA pilots would pass up a "good" deal. They said "no thank you" because the deal that Rocket Scientist Lee Moak came up with would absolutely screw all but about 400 of our pilots. His arrogance and lack of foresight will put DAL in a position of no dance partner very soon, while NWA weighs it's options.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

Well it was not agreed to, so it is a moot point.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

These guys know absolutely D*CK about any proposals that were passed. Ignore them and please realize not all NWA and DAL pilots are as arrogant and full of crap as these people.

I find it laughable that the General and Puff think that NWA pilots would pass up a "good" deal. They said "no thank you" because the deal that Rocket Scientist Lee Moak came up with would absolutely screw all but about 400 of our pilots. His arrogance and lack of foresight will put DAL in a position of no dance partner very soon, while NWA weighs it's options.

Read ALPA's merger and fragmentation policy. A ratio is how there are not gains for either one. I think that as time passes we will all realize what a god proposal it was.

 

[nwaredtail]

Read ALPA's merger and fragmentation policy. A ratio is how there are not gains for either one. I think that as time passes we will all realize what a god proposal it was.

Sure, You all got to move up a good 20% or so recently and then get to move up more as NWA pilots retire over the next 10 years. Sounds fair to me.

Answer this, WITH NO GROWTH, how much will a DAL pilot move on the DAL list over the next 10 years. About 400 or 8%

With No growth at NWA, A NWA pilot will move up around 950, or 22% ish. HUGE DIFFERENCE and DALALPA knows it.

 

[General Lee]

Sure, You all got to move up a good 20% or so recently and then get to move up more as NWA pilots retire over the next 10 years. Sounds fair to me.

Answer this, WITH NO GROWTH, how much will a DAL pilot move on the DAL list over the next 10 years. About 400 or 8%

With No growth at NWA, A NWA pilot will move up around 950, or 22% ish. HUGE DIFFERENCE and DALALPA knows it.

But wait, there is growth at DAL, and also AMR is looking at you. How about dem apples? The only thing that is constant is CHANGE. Things Change. You cannot control the future. If oil continues it's rise and Steenland decided to park even more DC9s for some reason, then your expectations change AGAIN. Your career expectations argument does NOT work.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

With only about 1000 retirements between now and 2020 in a 7000 pilot seniority list, that would put a new hire at number 6000. So you only need to hire another 6000 pilots for a 12,000 pilot seniority list to get to the 50% mark. Maybe that growth the General predicts will come true. Good Luck!

Schwanker

How would you do merging with AMR? How many pilots do they have? How would you do? They would love to staple you and then you can sue them. They don't care what the laws are. They will do it and force you to make a move. Enjoy that. Remember, your MEC came back to ours for a reason----the reason being AMR is looking at you now. Steenland doesn't care either way, he will get his $14 million and his large new house on Lake Minnetonka regardless of who he merges with. Enjoy NYC on the MD80, for years and years.


Bye Bye--General Lee