Impending 'pilot shortage' rumor is false

[Flydaplane]

There is no pilot shortage, just a shortage of good places to work. If you treat you pilots right, pay them well (not 19,000 to 30,000), give them good schedules, then there will be plenty of people who want the job. The problem is the profession has gone to pot lately with crappy pay and crappy jobs. No one want to enter a profession where they have to pay 40k for training and then get stuck in a crappy regional job making crap wages. If Mesa or Colgan or Whomever wanted to announce that they would start their pilots at $35-45k like most college grads make their first years, they would have plenty of applicants (especially if they didn't make them share a room in training-skywest-or pay for their own hotel and crap wages while being trained.

 

[pilotyip]

It is a shortage

We start at 34K, the first day of ground school. No pilots spend more time with their families than pilots at USA Jet Airlines. Gone from home an average of 156 hours per month. I still see a pilot shortage.

 

[Phaedrus]

I still see a pilot shortage.

Maybe you should quit checking out wristwatches in the men's room!
Couldn't resist....

 

[pilotyip]

that is right pilots with short props and low manifold pressure please close to the fuel dump pit.

 

[Scrapdog]

There is no pilot shortage, just a shortage of good places to work. If you treat you pilots right, pay them well (not 19,000 to 30,000), give them good schedules, then there will be plenty of people who want the job. The problem is the profession has gone to pot lately with crappy pay and crappy jobs. No one want to enter a profession where they have to pay 40k for training and then get stuck in a crappy regional job making crap wages. If Mesa or Colgan or Whomever wanted to announce that they would start their pilots at $35-45k like most college grads make their first years, they would have plenty of applicants (especially if they didn't make them share a room in training-skywest-or pay for their own hotel and crap wages while being trained.

Untrue - plenty of guys that are willing to make garbage wages with terrible work schedules at the regional level because it is an actual "jet" aircraft they get to fly - if you want to call it flying. And to compound it, the non-college grad types entering the RJ industry are even more willing to work for peanuts because they know without a college degree they would never get hired in the engineering, corporate, or medical sector where they would start with a decent salary and good benefits.

A new mechanical engineer entering the workforce makes on average in the 60K mark (from payscale.com) A new, non-college grad RJ pilot doesn't even make 30K...and has a terrible schedule to boot. No way to get around that logic (or lack thereof), huh Yip? And yep, logic and other higher level courses are taught at the college level.

With over 10 thousand applicants on file at FDX, SWA, and UPS...and a few thousand on file at CAL and DAL we are far from a pilot shortage.

 

[CFI2766]

I bet many will stay put. I will also bet that major airlines will begin to hire more and more pilots without PIC time, before they raise salaries (outside of new contracts). Regional FO's will make up a much larger percentage of new hires as time passes.

For my career progression, I hope this will be the case.

I have no numbers on the amount of available military pilots or their potential effect on the pool of pilots. That's one thing I am missing.[/quote]

With regard to the military pilot side of the hiring equation, there is one additional piece to consider: The USAF changed their active duty service commitment for pilot training from an eight year commitment to a ten year commitment in 1998. Do the math, and the USAF should be entering a period of time in which the number of pilots that they are letting go could possibly decrease. (I know that it depends greatly on which aircraft the individual pilot is assigned as to how badly the USAF wants to retain pilots...)

 

[Big Slick]

There are tons of guys in the Air Force right now who would gladly go to an airline job, if they could get one. Once your commitment to the AF is over, they offer you a bonus of $25,000 a year for 5 years to stay in the AF. If you are a Major and you are on the bonus, you make about $100,000 a year. So, nobody in his right mind would leave the AF to go to a regional.

If all the majors are hiring again, then it will be a different story. There are lots of guys who would gladly get out of the active duty AF if they had another job waiting for them. Even though the pay is good in the AF, the QOL is usually fairly poor.

Here's another piece of the puzzle. There are tons of furloughees in the AF hanging around long enough to retire. So, when DAL, AA, UAL, NWA or whoever calls us back, we will go on a MLOA for another 3-5 years so we can retire. Eventually, we will all come flooding back into the marketplace too.

In short, there are TONS of guys in the military who will gladly go to the airlines, if the right job is available. Sorry, no pilot shortage.

 

[Andy]

If you are a Major and you are on the bonus, you make about $100,000 a year.

O-4 over 10 = $5602.80
Flight pay over 6 = $650
Taxable mo total = $6502.80
Taxable yearly tot= $78033.60
Add in bonus = $93033.60

Nontaxable items:
BAS = $192.74
Single BAH = $984.
Nontax tot = $1076.74
Yearly tot = $12920.88

Convert nontaxable items to taxable: ~$20000/yr

An O-4 over 10 with bonus is making around $115K/yr minimum equivalent taxable income. Since the BAH is a lowball number, it's more realistic to say above $120K/yr for an O-4 over 10.

Throw in a couple of months of hostile fire pay and Combat Zone Tax Exclusion and you're talking 767 Captain pay at United.

 

[T-prop]

Just a question for pilots who have been flying for a couple of decades:

When was the last time you saw signing bonuses for new-hire pilots??

 

[AV80R]

And no--this isn't just military guys. I've had guys with JB/SWA, JB/UPS, SWA/UPS, and FDX/SWA options in the last two months. I've also had a few folks call me after joining airline X to say Airline Y called and wants to give them a shot too.

Albie – you’re absolutely right, when it rains it pours! Few days after finishing my ioe at Bigbrown SWA called me for an interview. It was much unexpected as I hadn’t updated my application for at least a year, I also do not have the type. I politely declined and explained I felt like I found the place I’d like to retire at and she seemed to be very understanding. Then I jokingly asked if I could sell my interview on eBay to instantaneously quadruple my 401k plan? She laughed and we both got a kick out of it. I guess in 25 years or so I’ll know if I made the right decision but I feel good about it.

The European JAA is studying age 70, and they are going to make it easier to get your commercial licenses, because of the shortages, which are getting worse there.

Wow, I can only imagine ACAR messages sent to OPS in the near future:

ETA 03:45. Please call the hotel van! Also, we need a wheel chair for the captain and a walker for the FO.

 

[Way2Broke]

Hi!
I was hired at USA Jet 5 years ago, with 2000 TT and 750 MEJet. I was by far the lowest time guy in my class. We just hired one guy with 280 TT, and about 100 MEL. In 2002 we almost didn't hire without a jet type rating. Now they some have no turbine time of any kind, even counting helo time.

Cliff,

Your wrong on this one. The current class has 3 out of 4 guys with turbine or jet time and 2 out of 4 with 121 pax time, as well as one military helo pilot. The helo may have even been turbine, but I don't know. Will this hold true in the future? Heck if I know. There is a pilot shortage, only time will tell. The change in training pay at USA Jet will go a long ways in attracting qualified pilots into the company. I further believe that as a whole the airline (or to be better stated, the airplane) industry will start to do things to attract pilots. On a side bar, the regionals better follow along with better pay or they will not be in business in the upcoming years. (thank god) Most of the regionals promote a corporate culture that is depressing and their business models thrive on poor economies, and of course the DOW just set a record high. They have what they deserve coming too them. They (the regionals) have caused alot of pain for alot of people and their families that never signed up to be treated like the scum of the earth. It is time for a change and the only way this can take place is with a unilateral acceptance from pilots as a whole that they will not tolerate poverty level pay scales, even for first year FO pay. The pilots starting at USA Jet have already made the decision not to tolerate such BS. Why you might ask? The starting pay is 3 TIME BETTER than that of 19 seat 121 pax operations, and the upgrade could be almost as quick.

 

[Way2Broke]

There is no pilot shortage, just a shortage of good places to work. If you treat you pilots right, pay them well (not 19,000 to 30,000), give them good schedules, then there will be plenty of people who want the job. The problem is the profession has gone to pot lately with crappy pay and crappy jobs. No one want to enter a profession where they have to pay 40k for training and then get stuck in a crappy regional job making crap wages. If Mesa or Colgan or Whomever wanted to announce that they would start their pilots at $35-45k like most college grads make their first years, they would have plenty of applicants (especially if they didn't make them share a room in training-skywest-or pay for their own hotel and crap wages while being trained.

Training is closer to 60-70k now than 40k.... and that is the base quote. Most leave will 100k plus. That is of course if you do it the advertised way.......

 

[Way2Broke]

Cliff,
To clarify, you are right about the 280 TT and 100 MEL pilot, however that pilot is not in the current class. He comes from a training program that was designed to generate crew pilots and I think USA Jet hired him to see if that kind of program can place crewmembers into the right seat successfully. This type of hiring is not unprecedented. I have spoke with said pilot and he is very bright and excited about the opportunity that has been offered to him. With that said, he is the exception to the rule at the current time, not the average new hire. If anyone gets upset with this I think it is mostly jealousy. The regionals, as you know, are hiring pilots with lower ME and the same TT time .

 

[Gunfighter]

Here's another piece of the puzzle. There are tons of furloughees in the AF hanging around long enough to retire. So, when DAL, AA, UAL, NWA or whoever calls us back, we will go on a MLOA for another 3-5 years so we can retire. Eventually, we will all come flooding back into the marketplace too.

Anyone have estimates on how many pilots are on mil leave from their airline job? A breakdown by airline would be even better.

 

[Andy]

Anyone have estimates on how many pilots are on mil leave from their airline job? A breakdown by airline would be even better.

Getting that information for all airlines is a tall order. I'll give you United's information from the March 07 SSC (System Scheduling Committee) report.

Total headcount: 7309
Mil lv: 572
Lv of Absence: 235
Instructors: 168
SC: 76 (not sure what SC stands for)
Long term sick lv: 22
Management: 18

Out of 7309 on property, United has a bit more than 6200 pilots flying the line.

 

[FO 4 Life]

Not a single one of those caps $75,000 a year. I'm going to make that after 2 years here at AAI.

2 years later, I'll be a CA making almost double that.

If the other site is correct, on third year pay you average 103 hours of credit a month? And to double it, you'd have to fly the same as a captain on 5th year pay. That seems like a lot of work.

 

[Lear70]

As a CA, it's no sweat, simply because I'd be on reserve for 2-3 years and the pay system on reserve is, shall we say, "unique". I routinely credited 100-105 hours a month on reserve with 13-14 days off.

The other site is close enough for government work, and there's a couple ways to get the credit up in the mid- to high 90's very easily with 14-15 days off a month, commutable trips. (and I didn't say "double", I said "ALMOST double").

The point was simply that the pay and QOL here so far exceeds any regional I know of that the only guys who wouldn't make the jump to a major are either close to retirement anyway, simply in love with being a senior CA (big fish, small pond), or are so stupid it boggles the mind they made it as far in life as they have.

 

[Andy]

Getting that information for all airlines is a tall order. I'll give you United's information from the March 07 SSC (System Scheduling Committee) report.

Total headcount: 7309
Mil lv: 572
Lv of Absence: 235
Instructors: 168
SC: 76 (not sure what SC stands for)
Long term sick lv: 22
Management: 18

Out of 7309 on property, United has a bit more than 6200 pilots flying the line.

SC = Standards Captain.

 

[lj60driver]

Ever since 1984 when I entered flying there has been a "pilot shortage". This advertisement helps keep the schools in business. If there truly had been a pilot shortage salaries would have to be raised all across the board, especially at the commuter/regional level. One would not have to start at 12-18k/yr regardless of previous experience.

 

[Hose A. Jiminez]

As a former freight dog, who worked for both 135 and 121 non scheds, id have to say that what PilotYIPs company is offering is pretty danm good for the market they are in.