Hold West said:
There will be those who want the job at all cost - there are those who've done the ATC as a major, and don't have anything else going. Think of all the folks signing up for PFT to get a job at a regional airline paying a pittance. There will be plenty of people willing to take the job.
I'm not so sure. Back before the big hiring crunch was publicized, I saw a GAO report on the number of students in the CTI programs. There weren't that many. My school, at the time, was fourth largest in terms of graduates, and we had a whopping 40 or so every year. Riddle, UND, and Purdue I think were the power houses. IIRC, there were 800 graduates per year collectively amongst all 13 programs and a bunch were already operating at capacity, very hesitant to expand their programs until they knew jobs would actually be available. My point is that the agency was not bursting at the seams with potential new hires. Combine that with the fact that when a job offer has been extended (I mean, the candidate has been "selected") it still takes awhile for them to get to the facility. I was "selected" in Oct '05, and I haven't gone anywhere or heard anything since then... other than that the FBI is extremely backlogged with clearance investigations. So, how fast are these graduates getting to the facilities? My May '05 grads that designated the West-Pac region for hire haven't even been selected.
The community colleges are your largest source of "majors" who don't have anything else going. I was one of those people, and went to school with a few. Those programs aren't that large. Even then, I went to school with a bunch of 18 to 20 year olds who can move on to other things.
As far as the four year schools goes, I doubt very few people did ATC as a sole major. You'd have to be stupid. In the current hiring climate, the FAA has been dragging their feet hiring graduates, and they won't even consider you for hire until you graduate. It has been entirely possible that you wait for two years from graduation, at the very least. Don't forget the "applications for waiver" or whatever that were put out in Dec '04 for pool extensions -- meaning people have been waiting for more than two years for jobs.
Graduation is also no guarantee of a job. Do you honestly think that all of these potential hires were just sitting around at home working at McD's until the FAA made up their mind? I sure hope these aren't the people who will be guiding our skies in the next few years.
As far as PFT goes -- everybody I know that is a pilot and an ATC candidate says that they'll fly airplanes for crappy pay long before they push tin for crappy pay. Meaning, we have a bunch of crappy paid pilots and no ATC guys.
My comment about the fragility of the system is that it already is at its breaking point. Push it any further, and it's going to break.
P.S. Just for BBB's amusement, I ain't whining. I already passed on a flying career because of the state of the industry, and if this falls through, I have some VERY promising back up plans.