How Many Months Supply of Excess Pilots?

[152SIC]

Please don't forget that our contracts don't happen organically- it's not a simple supply and demand equation- but rather us collectively bargaining through the RLA influenced heavily by the NMB.

It is a simple supply and demand equation. I wholeheartedly support pilot union efforts, but if fully automated aircraft launched tomorrow the supply of pilots would be untenable. Therefore any contracts would become invalid (in the future).

As the supply of pilots dwindled in the mid oughts, regionals depended on a fresh supply of SJS, lower-qualified pilots. It apparently worked (crashes withstanding).

Supply and demand is the reason a free market functions, and it is the reason our future as professional pilots looks good!

 

[waveflyer]

It is a simple supply and demand equation. I wholeheartedly support pilot union efforts, but if fully automated aircraft launched tomorrow the supply of pilots would be untenable. Therefore any contracts would become invalid (in the future).

As the supply of pilots dwindled in the mid oughts, regionals depended on a fresh supply of SJS, lower-qualified pilots. It apparently worked (crashes withstanding).

Supply and demand is the reason a free market functions, and it is the reason our future as professional pilots looks good!

You totally contradicted yourself and that's a really dumb statement.
We compete as pilots in an oligopoly seniority based collective bargaining system where the president has the legal authority to order us back to work- freehand principles are based on individuals negotiating individual contracts, like much of the corporate world. Airlines are different- for example, Delta is hiring- can I go to delta and say - hi- I've got 12,000 hours, 7 type ratings, 4000 TPIC, 10 LORs, great employee, graduated cum laude: WHAT CAN YOU OFFER ME?
Could I get more responsibility- jump right into the left seat if I were more qualified than some of their captains? Could I jump into the 777 if I had lots of experience in that plane?
We don't work in anything like a free market-

I've seen supply and demand at work in aviation for almost 20 years- I've never seen it lead DIRECTLY to pay raises- if you aren't prepared to support
unions politically and convince your politicians to support us- it will be a long road to contract improvements.

 

[152SIC]

You totally contradicted yourself and that's a really dumb statement.
We compete as pilots in an oligopoly seniority based collective bargaining system where the president has the legal authority to order us back to work- freehand principles are based on individuals negotiating individual contracts, like much of the corporate world. Airlines are different- for example, Delta is hiring- can I go to delta and say - hi- I've got 12,000 hours, 7 type ratings, 4000 TPIC, 10 LORs, great employee, graduated cum laude: WHAT CAN YOU OFFER ME?
Could I get more responsibility- jump right into the left seat if I were more qualified than some of their captains? Could I jump into the 777 if I had lots of experience in that plane?
We don't work in anything like a free market-

I've seen supply and demand at work in aviation for almost 20 years- I've never seen it lead DIRECTLY to pay raises- if you aren't prepared to support
unions politically and convince your politicians to support us- it will be a long road to contract improvements.

Totally agree with your last sentence!

I also agree that the free market is definitely not in full effect in the airline market. The same could be said for a lot of other industries in this country! But that is for a different forum.

As far as your first paragraph, I am a bit confounded as to where I contradicted myself? I understand that airlines might be viewed as being oligopolies. However, I think that the barriers to entry are not substantial enough to qualify them as such. Maybe I am wrong; wouldn't be the first time for me!!

 

[willbob]

there is a shortage coming, however airline management who has learned how to play pilot groups and congress like a fine tuned fiddle over the last 80 years will prevail. reasons I say this

1. LEX/Buffalo-I heard that things where gunna change and all part 121 pilots were going to have much higher times, experience etc. etc. has not happened yet and won't

2. Multi crew certificate-need I say more.

3. people really don't care as long as they can get to LX from LGA for $99.00

4. I have been hearing about the pilot shortage since 1988-has not really happened yet.

5. The economy is in for a major correction and nobody will be flying anyway.

6. I hope I am wrong as I have invested a lot of pissed off wife/disappointed kid time into this. (really honey it getting better/its a marathon, not a sprint)

 

[waveflyer]

The contradiction happened you pointed out the dwindling supply of pilots last decade as outsourcing went nuts- they trained more pilots- lowered standards and qualifications- but pay didn't get better and was in fact slashed at most majors by incredible amounts.

"(economics) a market in which control over the supply of a commodity is in the hands of a small number of producers and each one can influence prices and affect competitors"
wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn

each airline has a tremendous influence over industry prices- airline price wars are perfect examples of oligopolistic characteristics - esp influential over the amount charged on a particular route- as for barriers to entry: how much do airplanes cost? How much fuel $$? Regulatory requirements? Starting an airline isn't like opening up a corner coffee shop... Takes a lot of capital and political influence.

 

[waveflyer]

Willbob- there have been shortages- in early 2000- upgrade times at united were 3 years-getting on at a major took 3000 hours and some PIC- I've seen regionals reduce hiring mins bc they were running out of pilots in the last few years- none of those had an effect on wages however bc we do not support our unions PACs and many in fact rail against them-
we've disenfranchised ourselves bc we don't vote for Dems so they don't care about us- and republicans don't believe in unions and certainly believe that we aren't worth our money-

If you HAVE to be conservative- ok- it's idealogical- I'm not going to change that- but Rs have supported many unions- like police and fire unions- write your congressman- advocate for your profession- write your candidates for president- offer your efforts and $ if they will support airline pilot unions- explain to them why airline pilots are different from other less skilled labor unions-

What we can't do is continue to support politicians who don't support us and be surprised at our paycuts

 

[scoreboardII]

upgrade times at united were 3 years-

Wave, thats not an indication of a shortage, thats an indication of growth.

A shortage is planes not flying because a carriers does not have enough bodies. I think in the last 20-30 years every plane that could fly, did fly with pilots in the seat.

 

[Lear70]

Very good article, thanks for posting Cliff!

This would be a great time to start a descent flight school, with the supply/demand equation of the future in mind..

Will the students climb, too?

Now would be a TERRIBLE time to start a flight school. The demand hasn't peaked, pay rates haven't come up, the credit market is still ridiculous, and new students would be hard to come by...

Now, if you WAIT until the hiring market peaks while, at the same time, the Legacies all sign new contracts that regain much of their losses, including some solid retirement funds (B funds, etc), and you can re-interest students on more than just "hopes and dreams" of it getting better by showing them what the market is actually DOING... Different animal.

We're not going to see a "pilot shortage" like PILOTS want to see - for instance, pilots wanting to see companies voluntarily increasing pay and benefits to attract pilots because there aren't enough to hire. It's not going to happen; not at the Majors/Legacies at any rate.

We *WILL*, however, see things get tight on the hiring scene for many of the Regionals / Fractionals / Charter / International Expat companies. The majors will have a source of RJ pilots for a LOONNNNGGG time to come. You can take THAT to the bank. It's a VERY simple numbers game.

In other countries? Not so much. You're going to be able to write your ticket with a lot of international operators needing crews, but it won't be permanent, and wages / contracts will adjust. Here in the states we'll see a nice up-tick in hiring for a few years starting next year, but it too will pass.

This has all happened before. It will happen again.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

You're going to be able to write your ticket with a lot of international operators needing crews, but it won't be permanent, and wages / contracts will adjust. Here in the states we'll see a nice up-tick in hiring for a few years starting next year, but it too will pass.

Enough for me to do two more contracts and get out of this crappy business:beer:

 

[152SIC]

Will the students climb, too?

Now would be a TERRIBLE time to start a flight school. The demand hasn't peaked, pay rates haven't come up, the credit market is still ridiculous, and new students would be hard to come by...

Now, if you WAIT until the hiring market peaks while, at the same time, the Legacies all sign new contracts that regain much of their losses, including some solid retirement funds (B funds, etc), and you can re-interest students on more than just "hopes and dreams" of it getting better by showing them what the market is actually DOING... Different animal.

We're not going to see a "pilot shortage" like PILOTS want to see - for instance, pilots wanting to see companies voluntarily increasing pay and benefits to attract pilots because there aren't enough to hire. It's not going to happen; not at the Majors/Legacies at any rate.

We *WILL*, however, see things get tight on the hiring scene for many of the Regionals / Fractionals / Charter / International Expat companies. The majors will have a source of RJ pilots for a LOONNNNGGG time to come. You can take THAT to the bank. It's a VERY simple numbers game.

In other countries? Not so much. You're going to be able to write your ticket with a lot of international operators needing crews, but it won't be permanent, and wages / contracts will adjust. Here in the states we'll see a nice up-tick in hiring for a few years starting next year, but it too will pass.

This has all happened before. It will happen again.

Haha! Good catch! I suppose the number of students will climb as long as decent instructors understand the difference between unplanned and decent descents!

Ugh. Seemed funny though!

I truly think though, that a DECENT flight school operation would be a good idea in the near future. I wouldn't bet a nest egg on it, but I wouldn't discount it either. Starting businesses toward the tail end of recessions sometimes work.

However, years ago someone talked me into aviation. As a career. That is the last time I have taken financial advice from a pilot!

 

[OPECJet]

Age 70, 75, then 80 isn't too far off.

In every cockpit you'll find an AED, bottle of Geritol, and a pack of Depends. Instead of grabbing a cup of coffee for the ride to the airport, there will be Metamucil for all. Jepps will be re-distributed in larger print.

 

[crj567]

Let me guess, another prediction of that famous pilot shortage that is always 5 years away?

Yep-

Just ask Kit Darby!

 

[pilotyip]

History

Cliff was right on with history. Ref 1964 UAL Private SEL you could apply and get hired. As I said before the consumer of $99 fares will determine how much an airline can charge for a ticket. If rates go up, new airlines will hire anyone with a certificate who will work for starting wages and undercut the existing market, kinda like SWA in the 80's. There will never be pilot shortage, (ask Avbug) there will be a hiring boom, already started, hitting stride in 2012. There will be an experience shortage and to ensure there is no pilot shortage, airlines will continue to redefine competitive minimums. As people who want to fly see these job opening they will again flood into the market to take those job. Don't think so, study history

 

[Lear70]

Haha! Good catch! I suppose the number of students will climb as long as decent instructors understand the difference between unplanned and decent descents!

:nuts: :beer:

I truly think though, that a DECENT flight school operation would be a good idea in the near future. I wouldn't bet a nest egg on it, but I wouldn't discount it either. Starting businesses toward the tail end of recessions sometimes work.

Yeah, I wouldn't either. I've watched flight schools in and around Nashville (MTSU Aerospace) come and go. They always seem to do best right at the PEAK of hiring and hang on well into the down-turn in hiring, then have a really hard time even as the hiring is picking back up because of the years of perceived stagnation. Methinks late next year or early 2012 would be a better bet, as that's when you'll see CAL and DAL probably finalizing their contracts with all the LCC's already inked (Alaska, Hawaiian, and Southwest are done, jetBlue and Allegiant both have voluntary higher pay as of the last year, Spirit soon ratified (I hope), and AirTran right around the corner / end of summer).

However, years ago someone talked me into aviation. As a career. That is the last time I have taken financial advice from a pilot!

No doubt.

Cliff was right on with history. Ref 1964 UAL Private SEL you could apply and get hired. As I said before the consumer of $99 fares will determine how much an airline can charge for a ticket. If rates go up, new airlines will hire anyone with a certificate who will work for starting wages and undercut the existing market, kinda like SWA in the 80's.

A couple things, in 1964 there was almost NO civilian pilot route. That's why they had to hire wet Private SEL and basically do ab-initio training. Not so anymore.

In the 80's, Southwest was virtually an unknown, somewhat like Allegiant was several years ago (with 6 month upgrade times or thereabouts) and how AirTran was after Valujet (and who would have known what an AirTran career would turn into). Point is, the fringe carriers will always have a hard time hiring during an up-turn. They always have. The Legacies / established Majors are another story completely. They won't have a hard time finding qualified applicants. There's like 10,000+ ATP rated Part 121 Regional guys and gals out there...

There will never be pilot shortage, (ask Avbug) there will be a hiring boom, already started, hitting stride in 2012. There will be an experience shortage and to ensure there is no pilot shortage, airlines will continue to redefine competitive minimums. As people who want to fly see these job opening they will again flood into the market to take those job. Don't think so, study history

Ayuh.

 

[pilotyip]

Foggy mirror

:nuts: :beer: There's like 10,000+ ATP rated Part 121 Regional guys and gals out there...Ayuh.

And when those 10K ATP pilots take the job openings, competitive mins will be redefined to the foggy mirror hiring standard, where if you hold mirror under someone's nose and it fogs you get the job. This will be particularly true on the lower end of the scale.