How Many Months Supply of Excess Pilots?

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Boeing forecasts a need for 448,000 new pilots to enter the industry over the next 20 years, and more than half a million new maintenance engineers.
When the upturn comes - and the industry is already reporting growth - the marketplace may contain about two years' supply of qualified pilots among those furloughed or trained but not yet hired, and rather less slack in the engineer market. Before that time arrives, however, the airlines are going to have to start working out where the new ones will come from,
...I don't think they will...I think they will wait, and hope it turns out for the best, and when the undersupply hits, the hiring departments will all be in panic mode...
because the ab-initio training industry, under-invested for years, will also need to grow massively.

http://www.flightglobal.com/article...lot-and-engineer-demand-is-unsustainable.html

cliff
LFW

 

[Superpilot92]

the numbers dont lie, i've been telling guys this for years. mgmt has done a good enough job at stripping this career down so that people arent getting into it like they used to. This will cause a huge problem for the airlines and something will have to happen to attract people back into this industry. Hopefully that means we will have great bargaining power going forward. I think one thing that will happen to offset this will be a shift back to mainline aircraft (larger airplanes) less frequency. We'll see!

IF age 65 hadnt have happened we be seeing bigtime hiring numbers right now.

 

[Lynxman]

Delaying the inevitable.

 

[waveflyer]

gutting our contracts was twofold-
1- sticking it to us
and 2- leaving the nation with a lack of pilots to get their MPL program up and running- further devaluing the profession.
It's an issue-=

If you don't know- check out your local flight school- there are very few American pilots on the career track and it's been like that for a few years at least now.

 

[Lynxman]

gutting our contracts was twofold-
1- sticking it to us
and 2- leaving the nation with a lack of pilots to get their MPL program up and running- further devaluing the profession.
It's an issue-=

If you don't know- check out your local flight school- there are very few American pilots on the career track and it's been like that for a few years at least now.

There is very few to begin with and the foreign students themselves wont stick around to fly in the states thats for sure.

 

[Jiminmem]

Let me guess, another prediction of that famous pilot shortage that is always 5 years away?

 

[RJ Bum]

Let me guess, another prediction of that famous pilot shortage that is always 5 years away?

you can say that, age 70 rule is on it's way...

 

[jonjuan]

Let me guess, another prediction of that famous pilot shortage that is always 5 years away?

"Free Beer tomorrow!"

 

[CrimsonEclipse]

yet another "pilot shortage"

by the way.... want to buy a bridge?

 

[atpcliff]

We have already had a massive pilot shortage...but you are not old enough to remember, and you don't do History.

cliff
LFW

 

[boxjockey]

I 100% agree with this assessment. At the end of 07, I was receiving unsolicited offers to go to India and fly an RJ for 150K/yr, all expenses and taxes paid. Since 911, pilot training in the states has been way down. An Aussie friend said that in '08 only 20+ ATPs were issued in ALL of Australia. It is coming people, simply because people aren't interested in our career for the money paid. Even here at CX, where there has never been a problem recruiting, they have had to expand the cadet program to international applicants because they couldn't find enough interest locally. Call me an optimist, but I believe the ball will once again be in our court within 5 years, and it won't leave for a LONG time.

box

 

[Max Powers]

yet another "pilot shortage"

by the way.... want to buy a bridge?

Exactly or some ocean front real estate?......Look folks unless we ween ourselves off our wasteful ways - in regard to automobiles getting avg mpg of less than 30 - oil prices will slowly go up to unsustainable prices. In other words: if we save oil for our Mass transit such as airlines and not SUVs then we have a chance.

 

[Superpilot92]

I 100% agree with this assessment. At the end of 07, I was receiving unsolicited offers to go to India and fly an RJ for 150K/yr, all expenses and taxes paid. Since 911, pilot training in the states has been way down. An Aussie friend said that in '08 only 20+ ATPs were issued in ALL of Australia. It is coming people, simply because people aren't interested in our career for the money paid. Even here at CX, where there has never been a problem recruiting, they have had to expand the cadet program to international applicants because they couldn't find enough interest locally. Call me an optimist, but I believe the ball will once again be in our court within 5 years, and it won't leave for a LONG time.

box

Well said, i agree 100% :beer:

 

[152SIC]

Very good article, thanks for posting Cliff!

This would be a great time to start a descent flight school, with the supply/demand equation of the future in mind..

 

[waveflyer]

Please don't forget that our contracts don't happen organically- it's not a simple supply and demand equation- but rather us collectively bargaining through the RLA influenced heavily by the NMB.

 

[152SIC]

Please don't forget that our contracts don't happen organically- it's not a simple supply and demand equation- but rather us collectively bargaining through the RLA influenced heavily by the NMB.

It is a simple supply and demand equation. I wholeheartedly support pilot union efforts, but if fully automated aircraft launched tomorrow the supply of pilots would be untenable. Therefore any contracts would become invalid (in the future).

As the supply of pilots dwindled in the mid oughts, regionals depended on a fresh supply of SJS, lower-qualified pilots. It apparently worked (crashes withstanding).

Supply and demand is the reason a free market functions, and it is the reason our future as professional pilots looks good!

 

[waveflyer]

It is a simple supply and demand equation. I wholeheartedly support pilot union efforts, but if fully automated aircraft launched tomorrow the supply of pilots would be untenable. Therefore any contracts would become invalid (in the future).

As the supply of pilots dwindled in the mid oughts, regionals depended on a fresh supply of SJS, lower-qualified pilots. It apparently worked (crashes withstanding).

Supply and demand is the reason a free market functions, and it is the reason our future as professional pilots looks good!

You totally contradicted yourself and that's a really dumb statement.
We compete as pilots in an oligopoly seniority based collective bargaining system where the president has the legal authority to order us back to work- freehand principles are based on individuals negotiating individual contracts, like much of the corporate world. Airlines are different- for example, Delta is hiring- can I go to delta and say - hi- I've got 12,000 hours, 7 type ratings, 4000 TPIC, 10 LORs, great employee, graduated cum laude: WHAT CAN YOU OFFER ME?
Could I get more responsibility- jump right into the left seat if I were more qualified than some of their captains? Could I jump into the 777 if I had lots of experience in that plane?
We don't work in anything like a free market-

I've seen supply and demand at work in aviation for almost 20 years- I've never seen it lead DIRECTLY to pay raises- if you aren't prepared to support
unions politically and convince your politicians to support us- it will be a long road to contract improvements.

 

[152SIC]

You totally contradicted yourself and that's a really dumb statement.
We compete as pilots in an oligopoly seniority based collective bargaining system where the president has the legal authority to order us back to work- freehand principles are based on individuals negotiating individual contracts, like much of the corporate world. Airlines are different- for example, Delta is hiring- can I go to delta and say - hi- I've got 12,000 hours, 7 type ratings, 4000 TPIC, 10 LORs, great employee, graduated cum laude: WHAT CAN YOU OFFER ME?
Could I get more responsibility- jump right into the left seat if I were more qualified than some of their captains? Could I jump into the 777 if I had lots of experience in that plane?
We don't work in anything like a free market-

I've seen supply and demand at work in aviation for almost 20 years- I've never seen it lead DIRECTLY to pay raises- if you aren't prepared to support
unions politically and convince your politicians to support us- it will be a long road to contract improvements.

Totally agree with your last sentence!

I also agree that the free market is definitely not in full effect in the airline market. The same could be said for a lot of other industries in this country! But that is for a different forum.

As far as your first paragraph, I am a bit confounded as to where I contradicted myself? I understand that airlines might be viewed as being oligopolies. However, I think that the barriers to entry are not substantial enough to qualify them as such. Maybe I am wrong; wouldn't be the first time for me!!

 

[willbob]

there is a shortage coming, however airline management who has learned how to play pilot groups and congress like a fine tuned fiddle over the last 80 years will prevail. reasons I say this

1. LEX/Buffalo-I heard that things where gunna change and all part 121 pilots were going to have much higher times, experience etc. etc. has not happened yet and won't

2. Multi crew certificate-need I say more.

3. people really don't care as long as they can get to LX from LGA for $99.00

4. I have been hearing about the pilot shortage since 1988-has not really happened yet.

5. The economy is in for a major correction and nobody will be flying anyway.

6. I hope I am wrong as I have invested a lot of pissed off wife/disappointed kid time into this. (really honey it getting better/its a marathon, not a sprint)

 

[waveflyer]

The contradiction happened you pointed out the dwindling supply of pilots last decade as outsourcing went nuts- they trained more pilots- lowered standards and qualifications- but pay didn't get better and was in fact slashed at most majors by incredible amounts.

"(economics) a market in which control over the supply of a commodity is in the hands of a small number of producers and each one can influence prices and affect competitors"
wordnetweb.princeton.edu/perl/webwn

each airline has a tremendous influence over industry prices- airline price wars are perfect examples of oligopolistic characteristics - esp influential over the amount charged on a particular route- as for barriers to entry: how much do airplanes cost? How much fuel $$? Regulatory requirements? Starting an airline isn't like opening up a corner coffee shop... Takes a lot of capital and political influence.