How Many Months Supply of Excess Pilots?

[waveflyer]

Willbob- there have been shortages- in early 2000- upgrade times at united were 3 years-getting on at a major took 3000 hours and some PIC- I've seen regionals reduce hiring mins bc they were running out of pilots in the last few years- none of those had an effect on wages however bc we do not support our unions PACs and many in fact rail against them-
we've disenfranchised ourselves bc we don't vote for Dems so they don't care about us- and republicans don't believe in unions and certainly believe that we aren't worth our money-

If you HAVE to be conservative- ok- it's idealogical- I'm not going to change that- but Rs have supported many unions- like police and fire unions- write your congressman- advocate for your profession- write your candidates for president- offer your efforts and $ if they will support airline pilot unions- explain to them why airline pilots are different from other less skilled labor unions-

What we can't do is continue to support politicians who don't support us and be surprised at our paycuts

 

[scoreboardII]

upgrade times at united were 3 years-

Wave, thats not an indication of a shortage, thats an indication of growth.

A shortage is planes not flying because a carriers does not have enough bodies. I think in the last 20-30 years every plane that could fly, did fly with pilots in the seat.

 

[Lear70]

Very good article, thanks for posting Cliff!

This would be a great time to start a descent flight school, with the supply/demand equation of the future in mind..

Will the students climb, too?

Now would be a TERRIBLE time to start a flight school. The demand hasn't peaked, pay rates haven't come up, the credit market is still ridiculous, and new students would be hard to come by...

Now, if you WAIT until the hiring market peaks while, at the same time, the Legacies all sign new contracts that regain much of their losses, including some solid retirement funds (B funds, etc), and you can re-interest students on more than just "hopes and dreams" of it getting better by showing them what the market is actually DOING... Different animal.

We're not going to see a "pilot shortage" like PILOTS want to see - for instance, pilots wanting to see companies voluntarily increasing pay and benefits to attract pilots because there aren't enough to hire. It's not going to happen; not at the Majors/Legacies at any rate.

We *WILL*, however, see things get tight on the hiring scene for many of the Regionals / Fractionals / Charter / International Expat companies. The majors will have a source of RJ pilots for a LOONNNNGGG time to come. You can take THAT to the bank. It's a VERY simple numbers game.

In other countries? Not so much. You're going to be able to write your ticket with a lot of international operators needing crews, but it won't be permanent, and wages / contracts will adjust. Here in the states we'll see a nice up-tick in hiring for a few years starting next year, but it too will pass.

This has all happened before. It will happen again.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

You're going to be able to write your ticket with a lot of international operators needing crews, but it won't be permanent, and wages / contracts will adjust. Here in the states we'll see a nice up-tick in hiring for a few years starting next year, but it too will pass.

Enough for me to do two more contracts and get out of this crappy business:beer:

 

[152SIC]

Will the students climb, too?

Now would be a TERRIBLE time to start a flight school. The demand hasn't peaked, pay rates haven't come up, the credit market is still ridiculous, and new students would be hard to come by...

Now, if you WAIT until the hiring market peaks while, at the same time, the Legacies all sign new contracts that regain much of their losses, including some solid retirement funds (B funds, etc), and you can re-interest students on more than just "hopes and dreams" of it getting better by showing them what the market is actually DOING... Different animal.

We're not going to see a "pilot shortage" like PILOTS want to see - for instance, pilots wanting to see companies voluntarily increasing pay and benefits to attract pilots because there aren't enough to hire. It's not going to happen; not at the Majors/Legacies at any rate.

We *WILL*, however, see things get tight on the hiring scene for many of the Regionals / Fractionals / Charter / International Expat companies. The majors will have a source of RJ pilots for a LOONNNNGGG time to come. You can take THAT to the bank. It's a VERY simple numbers game.

In other countries? Not so much. You're going to be able to write your ticket with a lot of international operators needing crews, but it won't be permanent, and wages / contracts will adjust. Here in the states we'll see a nice up-tick in hiring for a few years starting next year, but it too will pass.

This has all happened before. It will happen again.

Haha! Good catch! I suppose the number of students will climb as long as decent instructors understand the difference between unplanned and decent descents!

Ugh. Seemed funny though!

I truly think though, that a DECENT flight school operation would be a good idea in the near future. I wouldn't bet a nest egg on it, but I wouldn't discount it either. Starting businesses toward the tail end of recessions sometimes work.

However, years ago someone talked me into aviation. As a career. That is the last time I have taken financial advice from a pilot!

 

[OPECJet]

Age 70, 75, then 80 isn't too far off.

In every cockpit you'll find an AED, bottle of Geritol, and a pack of Depends. Instead of grabbing a cup of coffee for the ride to the airport, there will be Metamucil for all. Jepps will be re-distributed in larger print.

 

[crj567]

Let me guess, another prediction of that famous pilot shortage that is always 5 years away?

Yep-

Just ask Kit Darby!

 

[pilotyip]

History

Cliff was right on with history. Ref 1964 UAL Private SEL you could apply and get hired. As I said before the consumer of $99 fares will determine how much an airline can charge for a ticket. If rates go up, new airlines will hire anyone with a certificate who will work for starting wages and undercut the existing market, kinda like SWA in the 80's. There will never be pilot shortage, (ask Avbug) there will be a hiring boom, already started, hitting stride in 2012. There will be an experience shortage and to ensure there is no pilot shortage, airlines will continue to redefine competitive minimums. As people who want to fly see these job opening they will again flood into the market to take those job. Don't think so, study history

 

[Lear70]

Haha! Good catch! I suppose the number of students will climb as long as decent instructors understand the difference between unplanned and decent descents!

:nuts: :beer:

I truly think though, that a DECENT flight school operation would be a good idea in the near future. I wouldn't bet a nest egg on it, but I wouldn't discount it either. Starting businesses toward the tail end of recessions sometimes work.

Yeah, I wouldn't either. I've watched flight schools in and around Nashville (MTSU Aerospace) come and go. They always seem to do best right at the PEAK of hiring and hang on well into the down-turn in hiring, then have a really hard time even as the hiring is picking back up because of the years of perceived stagnation. Methinks late next year or early 2012 would be a better bet, as that's when you'll see CAL and DAL probably finalizing their contracts with all the LCC's already inked (Alaska, Hawaiian, and Southwest are done, jetBlue and Allegiant both have voluntary higher pay as of the last year, Spirit soon ratified (I hope), and AirTran right around the corner / end of summer).

However, years ago someone talked me into aviation. As a career. That is the last time I have taken financial advice from a pilot!

No doubt.

Cliff was right on with history. Ref 1964 UAL Private SEL you could apply and get hired. As I said before the consumer of $99 fares will determine how much an airline can charge for a ticket. If rates go up, new airlines will hire anyone with a certificate who will work for starting wages and undercut the existing market, kinda like SWA in the 80's.

A couple things, in 1964 there was almost NO civilian pilot route. That's why they had to hire wet Private SEL and basically do ab-initio training. Not so anymore.

In the 80's, Southwest was virtually an unknown, somewhat like Allegiant was several years ago (with 6 month upgrade times or thereabouts) and how AirTran was after Valujet (and who would have known what an AirTran career would turn into). Point is, the fringe carriers will always have a hard time hiring during an up-turn. They always have. The Legacies / established Majors are another story completely. They won't have a hard time finding qualified applicants. There's like 10,000+ ATP rated Part 121 Regional guys and gals out there...

There will never be pilot shortage, (ask Avbug) there will be a hiring boom, already started, hitting stride in 2012. There will be an experience shortage and to ensure there is no pilot shortage, airlines will continue to redefine competitive minimums. As people who want to fly see these job opening they will again flood into the market to take those job. Don't think so, study history

Ayuh.

 

[pilotyip]

Foggy mirror

:nuts: :beer: There's like 10,000+ ATP rated Part 121 Regional guys and gals out there...Ayuh.

And when those 10K ATP pilots take the job openings, competitive mins will be redefined to the foggy mirror hiring standard, where if you hold mirror under someone's nose and it fogs you get the job. This will be particularly true on the lower end of the scale.

 

[DUATS]

But you know what really ails the airlines, and has since the beginning of time? Ticket Prices. The American consumer somehow thinks that despite a threefold increase in the price of oil, and steady inflation for twenty years, they have A RIGHT to fly from LGA to LAX for the same $99 it was when People Express opened its doors. And the airlines keep lowering fares to fill seats. It's the bell ringing for Pavlov's dogs.

Since Orville and Wilber went to North Carolina, the total net income of all airline operations is a negative number. NO PROFIT - in the history of flight! Unless and until we can demonstrate that air travel is a product worthy of a good price, the airlines will have little or no success - and pilots will tread water or sink a little more.

On CNBC last week, I heard a guy say "airline stocks are never investments. They are just trading stocks. Take your profit and run." That tells you where the problem lies.

 

[pilotyip]

But you know what really ails the airlines, and has since the beginning of time? Ticket Prices. The American consumer somehow thinks that despite a threefold increase in the price of oil, and steady inflation for twenty years, they have A RIGHT to fly from LGA to LAX for the same $99 it was when People Express opened its doors. And the airlines keep lowering fares to fill seats. It's the bell ringing for Pavlov's dogs.

Since Orville and Wilber went to North Carolina, the total net income of all airline operations is a negative number. NO PROFIT - in the history of flight! Unless and until we can demonstrate that air travel is a product worthy of a good price, the airlines will have little or no success - and pilots will tread water or sink a little more.

On CNBC last week, I heard a guy say "airline stocks are never investments. They are just trading stocks. Take your profit and run." That tells you where the problem lies.

and the solution is?

 

[ThisistheDream]

what happens when cabatoge starts in the US airline industry in the future?? when foreign airlines start flying from US city to US city, then there will be a move get more code shares and out source more flying jobs to prevent the shortage of pilots?

 

[dooork]

But you know what really ails the airlines, and has since the beginning of time? Ticket Prices. The American consumer somehow thinks that despite a threefold increase in the price of oil, and steady inflation for twenty years, they have A RIGHT to fly from LGA to LAX for the same $99 it was when People Express opened its doors. And the airlines keep lowering fares to fill seats. It's the bell ringing for Pavlov's dogs.

Since Orville and Wilber went to North Carolina, the total net income of all airline operations is a negative number. NO PROFIT - in the history of flight! Unless and until we can demonstrate that air travel is a product worthy of a good price, the airlines will have little or no success - and pilots will tread water or sink a little more.

On CNBC last week, I heard a guy say "airline stocks are never investments. They are just trading stocks. Take your profit and run." That tells you where the problem lies.

What a bunch of BS. Try management. Southwest has cheap tickets and good pay..... o yeah and they are profitable

 

[Lear70]

You won't get through those 10,000 pilots during this hiring up-turn.

Then, by the next up-turn, they'll have been replaced with a bunch more RJ guys and gals.

So yeah, on the low end of the spectrum? Foggy mirror test. Majors and LCC? Will always have high-time quality applicants to choose from. Just the reality we live in.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

Cabotoge and foreign pilots flying US PAX.

Do you know what the hiring situation is now like for the foreign carriers that are expanding? They are hiring US pilots like CRAZY, and they are way behind the power curve.

Airlines like Lufthansa and BA are static. They don't have the new planes or pilots to expand into the US, even if they wanted to. Plus, their Terms and Conditions for their pilots are MUCH higher than US T&C. If they wanted to compete here, they would have to hire US pilots, as their pilots would want too much money.

The expanding airlines, like EK, are ALREADY hiring LOTS of US pilots. To expand more here, they'd have to hire even more. And, I'm not sure if they could be competitive either, as their T&Cs are higher than US T&Cs.

If airlines like USAir/CAL/UAL/AA started first yea pay at about $85/hour, then maybe cabotoge in the US would be economically viable, but they would still need US pilots to do it!

MANY, MANY US pilots have no idea what the worldwide aviation industry is like. The US (and sort of Canada) is very unique, and the ONLY plass with lots of excess pilots, and the numbers in the US are going down, down, and down. Maybe some country like Australia can pick up the slack? I read that in 2008, Australlia awarded 20 new ATPs. That number IS correct....20.....

cliff
LFW

 

[Dornier 335]

Hi!

Airlines like Lufthansa and BA are static. They don't have the new planes or pilots to expand into the US, even if they wanted to. Plus, their Terms and Conditions for their pilots are MUCH higher than US T&C. If they wanted to compete here, they would have to hire US pilots, as their pilots would want too much money.

[...]

MANY, MANY US pilots have no idea what the worldwide aviation industry is like.

Plus, the European legacy carriers have Ryanair, EasyJet and AirBerlin to worry about. Just check the pay rates at the those low-cost carriers! I hate to say it, but the big bucks @ the US carriers are gone. Cabotage from Central or South America could be a problem though.

Cliff, when did you fly @ TSA and where were you based? I wonder if we crossed paths...

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Cabotage from Central or South America could be a problem though.

Yeah, flown by cheap labor pilots from the US since they are applying by the truck load to places like LAN, COPA and wherever they can get DEC positions for $5000 dollars a month

 

[Dornier 335]

With all that eye candy around it might be well worth it. Latest I heard from COPA is that they prefer Latin American pilots (including Mexico) over US pilots.

 

[waveflyer]

I think we've just lost our way- so many of us were sold out and willing to fly for less to get to the majors- even as the opportunities to do so fell away- most of us through lack of leverage in the RLA and a NMB that was willing to delay and in some cases outright break the law- are flying under a market wage. We do it only bc we have so much invested in it and retain the hope that things will get better.

One point- i know that most of us are staunch conservatives- We saw a good example of how to work politically- The NRA is NOT a liberal agenda- and yet still found a way to get support from Democrats. Our union is not on the republican agenda - we need to start lobbying harder for their support- at least get them to be neutral and not always siding with the ATA- it's a competition between us and the ATA and we need to start viewing it that way. We ARE different from unskilled labor unions- we are leaders and generally carry influence in our communities- we need to sell ourselves to republican leadership- they can support us and keep their pro-business and meritocracy agenda intact.
We need to get to a point where neither party interferes with our freedom to negotiate.

Then maybe that hope that things will get better will be merited.