How long would it take to get to the Majors?

[aa73]

Don't listen to all the pessimists...

History has shown that airlines traditionally go bust the first part of a decade, and end up in a hiring boom the the last part of the decade. True for the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s.

Give it a couple of years and the majors will either be hiring big time or recalling big time... time it right and you should be ready for a major towards the end of the '00 decade (2008 and on.)

We have tons and tons of retirements... not to mention the tons and tons that are "getting out of this career for good" (See yaaa!). Stick with it, you will eventually make it to your goal.

Any time there are bad times in the airlines, you will always run across the eternal pessimisits, just like any job.. don't let 'em get to you.

Good luck, keep the faith.

 

[HowlinMadMurdoc]

Realistically, there are only 3 good major airlines left to work for these days: they are UPS, FedEx, and Southwest, and there is a lot of competition funneling into just those three.

US Airways is teetering on the brink of extinction, UAL pilots are taking a 14.7% paycut, NWA pilots just approved concessions, and CAL is now talking "belt tightening". At some point in the near future, UPS, FedEx, and SWA pilots will probably face the same issues currently affecting the Legacy carriers. Can't see how they can avoid it.

Not to mention, there's going to be some serious consolidation over the next 10 years. Only the strong will survive. Don't know if PilotYip is correct with saying the next hiring boom will be in 2007/08. Gut instinct is that there will still be a lot of furloughed pilots on the street.

HMM

 

[DesertFalcon]

From Zero to Full Throttle... You're looking at 15-20 years! However, some never make it to a major.

Still, you can have a successful career in aviation...You just have to have a HARD head!

 

[psysicx]

Fedex and UPS can avoid because boxes will always fly.Peole might stop but they still want to send packages.

 

[Ty Webb]

Realistically, there are only 3 good major airlines left to work for these days: they are UPS, FedEx, and Southwest, and there is a lot of competition funneling into just those three.

Clyde, what about Alaska, AirTran, Jet Blue, and America West, all of which are hiring?

Sure, AirTran isn't the Pan Am of 1962, but I have been here three years and am in the left seat of a brand-new B737-700. Pay ain't that great, but it ain't that bad, either (after 36 months on the property make about $10,000/month) and the company pays 10.5% into my B-fund. Top pay here is about the same as an AMR 757 CA . . . . I wouldn't write off the LCC's.

 

[StaySeated]

Enter a voice of reason, at 37 you have to be out of your mind to get into this industry. Sorry, I want to be full of claymation inspired holiday spirit but I just have to tell you how it is. Does a career in aviation have its moments, sure, but to start at a time when well over 10,000 pilots are furloughed is a little shortsighted. You will hear about a "mass retirement" that has been talked about over and over. The only "mass retirement" that is happening are the people retiring early because they have to get out to save what is left of their pensions. The bloodshed is not over, US Airways just received approval to completely walk away from what is left of their defined benefit pension and UAL will soon do the same thing. When that happens DAL, CAL and NWA will have to do the same thing. There will be an upswing in this industry some day but it will never be the same, not even close. People that say that this is just another cycle do not reallize the depth of the recent cuts and the effect new technology (100+ seat jets flown for peanuts) is having on the face of the industry. Airtran and JBlue and several others offer very good pay and benefits, but you are getting in line behind 10,000 furloughees and another 10,000+ working at the "regionals" trying to move on. I wish you the best whichever way you decide to go. Ho ho ho.

 

[SMOE]

Here is a general question for all. I have just turned 37 and on the final leg of getting my PPL(should finish up in Jan.). If I was to go to ATP and do the CFI route and by some way get a Reg. job by Dec. of 2005, How long would it take me from then to get to the Majors? I do have a college degree, did military time as an officer and I have a very good work history. With those factors in mind, throw out some possible times to the majors.

Thanks.

Ignore the nay sayers and hold to your dream. Coming from a military background, you know what I mean when I say stay the course and have a clear goal in mind. I'm retired AF and went from 0 time to ERJ FO in less than three years. Who knows where I'll be in another five years, the industry is to volatile too look beyond that.
Its more timing and good luck than anything else. I would only recommend a license mill as a fast way to get your CFI tickets. The only guarantee they will provide is they will take your money (and lots of it). Don't rely on them for the "guaranteed interview". Find your own job at a busy flight school, build time, and shotgun resumes. Thats what worked for me.
Stay flexible and keep pressin' on.
Good luck

 

[capt. megadeth]

Here is a general question for all. I have just turned 37 and on the final leg of getting my PPL(should finish up in Jan.). If I was to go to ATP and do the CFI route and by some way get a Reg. job by Dec. of 2005, How long would it take me from then to get to the Majors? I do have a college degree, did military time as an officer and I have a very good work history. With those factors in mind, throw out some possible times to the majors.

Thanks.

Forever!

That being said......good luck and don't give up on your dream regardless!

 

[WhiteCloud]

Here's my perspective. If you really want to work as an airline pilot then do what it takes to make it happen. The fast track schools can do that for you for a price but you also have to develop the skills along with paying the tab. Be careful that you really want to do the job and live the lifestyle of an airline pilot too. Many people like the idea of it and it makes for good conversation at a coctail party but the reality is that it is irregular shift work and you don't know what you shift will be from month to month. Is that for you? It can be a fun job in many ways too. Just check out the reality of it before you drop the bucks on some program. Good luck.

 

[GuppyPuppy]

I'm retired AF and went from 0 time to ERJ FO in less than three years. Who knows where I'll be in another five years, the industry is to volatile too look beyond that.

Let's see...In three years (if you follow in SMOE's shoes) you too could be flying an ERJ for very low pay. How low? Let's look at a company I'm somewhat familiar with, SkyWest (arguably one of the better regionals to work for)...

As a new first officer in the CRJ you would be making $19.02 per hour with a 75 hour monthly guarantee. That's $1,426.50 per month or $17,118/year. But wait...newhire CRJ training is two months long during which time you are not paid one dime. Try explaining that to your state's unemployment agency! So your first year guarantee is a whopping $14,265. I know that you will actually make a little more because of per diem, but after taxes and loan payments on your PVT-CFI flight time there isn't much left. Second year pay on the CRJ improves dramatically (you should be able to make just over $30k/yr), but what if you're on the Brasilia? Your pay would then be in the mid to high twenties.

I would give it some serious consideration before you jump in with both feet. It will take a very long time to reach your goal of flying for a major airline. I know the feeling though. I didn't get started as young as some of these whipper snappers who are flying turbine equipment before they're old enough to drink liquor, but still pursued my dream. I started flying in 1985 at the age of 19 and finally got hired by a major airline fifteen years later. Got furloughed in 2003 and took an 86% paycut, just to keep flying for an airline. I'm with a good company now and although I won't make "the big bucks" for a few years I'm able to at least pay the bills. I'm not so sure, however, that when I'm 50 or older that I want to be commuting to Gotham City and living in a crashpad full of bunk beds. I do like my job, but I really miss spending time with my wife and family. I look forward to the day when I can walk away from this career and feel good about it. Not sure if that will be tomorrow or when I'm 60 years old.

Have you looked into working at Trader Joe's? Average starting pay for a clerk, including retirement benefits is well over $40,000/year. Supervisors make almost twice that and store managers make about $135,000/year. You'd be home every night (not at the Holiday Inn in Buffalo) and might have leftover money to fly on the side. Worth considering.

Good luck with your decision.

GP

 

[KeroseneSnorter]

I am furloughed from the majors, 35 years old.

I only give myself about a 60% chance of making it back to the majors.

First time around it took 8 years, but times were good then and everybody was hiring.

 

[SloDoDriver]

UPS posted 100 jobs and got swamped with apps. At 37 and not with a regional or corporate you are fighting "age". I would be happy with CRJ Captain in a reasonable time. You will need to find a job that will upgrade you as soon as possible so you can log the "1000 hours Turbine PIC" that is the BARE minimum for consideration at a major. Some people recommend cargo or corporate.....some regionals are talking fast upgrades, but you won't know until you are with them. Mine had 1 year upgrades when I started and now it is 5 plus years. Good luck, it can be done. Just be ready for the 20,000 dollar first year pay etc....Which is better than 14,000/year as a flight instructor.....

 

[Clyde]

Good chance that CAL and NWA will start interviewing late next year so that put two more majors on the list of hiring. It is part of the 2007 hiring boom. 91 I would look at something besides the regionals, go someplace to get some good IFR PIC after you get your 1200 hrs for 135 IFR PIC. Places like Airnet, that will teach you alot about flying.

YIP,
I don't like to be wrong, but I sure hope I'm wrong about the 2007 hiring boom posts, and I get showed up by a list of majors who will be hiring.

 

[Clyde]

Clyde, what about Alaska, AirTran, Jet Blue, and America West, all of which are hiring?

Sure, AirTran isn't the Pan Am of 1962, but I have been here three years and am in the left seat of a brand-new B737-700. Pay ain't that great, but it ain't that bad, either (after 36 months on the property make about $10,000/month) and the company pays 10.5% into my B-fund. Top pay here is about the same as an AMR 757 CA . . . . I wouldn't write off the LCC's.

Ty,
I wasn't sure if AirTran is classified as a major or national, so I played it safe and didn't mention it. I thought the conversations were mainly focusing on the traditional majors/legacies.

But, since you brought it up, yes, AirTran is a good place to go. I have several friends there, have traveled on them a few times, and I have nothing negative to speak of regarding them.

Regarding JetBlue, personally I won't know what to make of them for at least 5 more years. They seem to be doing very well since starting up, but they haven't been around very long either.

Regarding Americal West, I have friends there too. They are happy, but none of them can say they are confident the airline will be around long enough to retire from.

And Alaska, well, I forgot about them. Sorry.

 

[Clyde]

US Airways is teetering on the brink of extinction, UAL pilots are taking a 14.7% paycut, NWA pilots just approved concessions, and CAL is now talking "belt tightening". At some point in the near future, UPS, FedEx, and SWA pilots will probably face the same issues currently affecting the Legacy carriers. Can't see how they can avoid it.

Not to mention, there's going to be some serious consolidation over the next 10 years. Only the strong will survive. Don't know if PilotYip is correct with saying the next hiring boom will be in 2007/08. Gut instinct is that there will still be a lot of furloughed pilots on the street.

HMM

HMM,
Can't say too much about Southwest, except to say they already had such good control over their costs, that they didn't have to make any drastic changes. Since they began, they have weathered a lot of economic storms and survived. I think their longevity and the lessons they have learned are going to keep them strong for years to come. However, this is the airline biz we're talking about and I could be wrong. Personally, I don't think SWA is going to see the same problems facing the legacies, primarily because the reason the legacies are restructuring is so they can become more like SWA's cost model.

Regarding UPS and FedEx. Although they fly airplanes and we are considered airline pilots by most, the companies themselves cannot really be compared to the rest of the airline industry.

For example, UPS is a shipping conglomerate who operates a fleet of large airplanes, in addition to a huge volume of trucks to pickup and deliver packages. They are very diversified, and the airplanes do not exist solely to produce all of it's revenue. They do not face the same problems faced by the PAX side.

With that said, UPS isn't really an airline in a traditional sense. It's a large shipping conglomerate which operates an airline as another way to generate revenue by shipping packages and cargo.

Now, as one trained to fly airplanes, UPS or FedEx would be very stable and secure places for one to put those skills to use.

Just my $0.02