REFINERIES being out are the MAJOR reason for the spike in prices, but the average price of GASOLINE was 2.55 BEFORE KATRINA. Also the price of a barrel of crude oil is the same now as it was before Katrina, about $66/barrel.
The main reason oil prices and gasoline prices were going up Pre-Katrina is because of the SUPPLY-DEMAND problems that begin to occur as we reach the Global Oil production peak. Congressman Roscoe Bartlett explains this problem the best in his speeches to Congress. Links to his speeches can be found below.
A study recently out from the Netherlands Says Peak Oil 2012-13. ASPO(Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas) and ODAC(Oil Depletion Analysis Center) say 2007-2008.
The study from the Netherlands was very, very thorough, and I would say 2012-13 is pretty accurate. He didn't however forecast a near term peak in Saudi Arabian oil production like George Bush and Cheney's friend, Matthew Simmons who was an advisor in the Secret Energy meetings, and author of the newest Peak Oil book predicts in the near future.
The writer of the Netherlands study says that a near term Saudi Arabian Peak would cause a Global oil peak to occur around 2007-8 but then a HIGHER Production peak around 94-5 Million Barrels a day would occur later around 2011-12.
When we reach peak oil and we haven't gotten alternatives going quickly enough, we're going to have a
real energy crisis.
We need to start turning the oil shale from the Rockies to OIL NOW! Shell has said they are still considering it and may start developing the first plant around 2010. Uhh hurry.
Also we need to turn the Coal to oil asap. The technology is there but the transformation plants are not. The plants MUST HAVE CARBON SEQUESTRATION processes included to capture the carbon so it isn't put into the environment.
We also need to hurry the development of HYBRID PLUG-IN cars. With the PLUG IN option you can plug the car into an outlet and drive the next day for 30-50 miles WITHOUT GASOLINE! This is huge. Plus it's still a Hybrid when the nightly charge runs out.
We also have a natural gas problem, and we need to use the coal for our oil. So we're going to NEED MANY NEW NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS to power our homes and our automobiles.
This country needs to get serious NOW about ENERGY like Bush and Cheney were pushing for in 2001.
Unfortunately after 9/11, I think Bush and Cheney changed their plans on energy and decided instead to go "get it for us". I think Iran and Venezuela are next.
Here are some sources for anyone interested in learning more about oil production peaking. #4 is the best description of the problem and the Finland Study can be found at #16:
1)From Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava:
a)Select an Audio Format below to
LISTEN TO Matthew Simmons talk about OIL SUPPLY Problems (PEAK OIL)
Select an Audio Format to listen:
RealPlayer l WinAmp l Windows Media l mp3
b)
LISTEN TO THE continuation of the show after Matthew Simmons left. They continue to talk about Peak Oil and the
effects it will have on the economy. It talks about how to profit from it.
Select an audio Format to listen:
2)Roscoe Bartlett, Republican Congressman from Maryland just gave a new speech to Congress, broadcast on C-SPAN on July 19, 2005 about COMING OIL SUPPLY PROBLEMS(PEAK OIL).
Here is the transcript.:
a)
http://www.xecu.net/thorn/PO/PO-July19-2005.html
April 19th Bartlett gave this speech to congress. This is a good speech to read, and it has VISUALS.
b)h
ttp://www.bartlett.house.gov/SupportingFiles/documents/energyspeech.pdf
Roscoe Bartlett met with Bush about Peak Oil on June 29th. So Bush, no doubt knows about the coming oil supply problems. Here is the press release:
c)
http://www.bartlett.house.gov/latestnews.asp?ARTICLE2900=7308
3) Here is a recent Associated press article that was in the USA TODAY:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-05-28-oil-shortage_x.htm?csp=34
4) THE BEST DESCRIPTION OF PEAK OIL:
www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426
5) Article about Peak Oil coming around 2007-2008. A new Finland study says 2012 so I doubt 2007-8 is the date but these people think so:
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/articles/196
6) http://www.financialsense.com/energy/main.htm
Read as many of the articles here especially the Peak Oil ones
a) Peak Oil and what it means to you:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/petch/2005/0703.html
b) Crude Awakening:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/saxena/2005/0617.html
7) An investment firm that specializes in ENERGY,
321Energy, has daily news articles on PEAK OIL and OIL in general here:
http://www.321energy.com/archives.php?c=oil
Canadian Economist talks about imminent Peak oil Problem:
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/sprott/sprott070505.html
8) A
GREAT BLOG with news updates daily all about PEAK OIL:
http://www.theoildrum.com/
9) Great
Chat Group, look at Current Events, Peak Oil Discussion, Energy Technology, and Economics of Peak Oil:
http://www.peakoil.com/forums.html
10) Iraq and the Problem of Peak Oil:
http://globalresearch.ca/articles/ENG408A.html
11) The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has their website at:
www.peakoil.net They have a new newsletter every month I believe, which talks about the newest developments on peak oil. They have done analysis on Peak Oil and predict 2007-2008 for Peak Oil.
12) Here is the Oil Depletion Analysis Center (ODAC) site. They also have done analysis on Peak Oil and predict 2007-2008 for Peak Oil.They have new articles about peak oil all the time:
http://www.odac-info.org/
13) New York Times Magazine article on coming Peak Oil. They interview Matthew Simmons and the ex-President of Saudi Arabia's Oil company ARAMCO:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/magazine/21OIL.html
14) The Ultimate Doomer Site-He basically thinks we're screwed no matter what:
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net -- Everything UNDERLINED is a link and you can explore almost all his sources. I recommend looking at as many links as you have time for.
15) Here is a great site that has new articles on Peak Oil and
ALL THE ALTERNATIVES and their progress:
http://www.energybulletin.net/
16) This new study by Rembrandt H.E.M. Koppelaar from Foundation Peak Oil Netherlands says 2012-13 is the peak oil year:
http://www.peakoil.nl/images/oil_production_outlook_2005-2040.pdf
17) CNOOC,
a Chinese Company, says global oil production will peak within the next 5 years. Here is the article:
http://www.interfax.cn/showfeature.asp?aid=5412&slug=OIL
The time to get serious is NOW.
Jet