Govt has to do something!!

[pilotyip]

How does anyone explain we have just about the cheapest fuel prices of any industrialized country?

 

[Snakum]

you guys don't seem to see that the airlines already are government-subsidized

Very true. And quite unfortunate, as well.

we have just about the cheapest fuel prices of any industrialized country

Also true. And we are a tad spoiled by the kind of fuel prices we've enjoyed for generations. In 1989 gas was running ... what ... $.90 per gallon? I can't remember, but it was mucho cheap. At the same time, in the Federal Republic of Germany it was almost DM 6.00 per liter. Calculate that one.

Minh
(Spoiled by the price of prostitutes and Mad Dog 20/20. :nuts: )

 

[Icelandair]

Its time to throw the environmentalist wackos out and start behaving like a sane nation that wants to survive.

 

[Gulfstream 200]

You guys are looking at the world through your aviation glasses...

Most sectors are doing just fine! companies are making lots of money, most workers pay is up, and Americans are spending more that ever.

fuel prices and gvt intervention? no thanks, let your welfare airline crumble. Someone else will fly to Florida and people will continue to go if prices go up.
Had anything shipped/deliverd lately? EVERYONE has added fuel surcharges - not just UPS and FEDEX - even local contractors around me....so what? you want the stuff? just pay the few bucks!!! imagine that.

I can honestly say the only people I know who are taking a pounding are airline related (pilots,FAs etc)

Everyone else still pulls up to that 3$ gas pump in their 40K+ SUVs.

 

[FN FAL]

While employees at the middle and bottom get squeezed for every dime, executives continue to reward themselves with gratuitous compensation... Until the working man/woman stand up for themselves and each other this crap is going to continue and probably even get worse...

Hey Chris, remember when the plant mananger for James River Paper Company's "Dixie Cup" operation up in New Jersey got turned into a No. 2 pencil in his office by a disgruntled employee?

The plant manager was the son of one of the owners of James River Paper Co., which at the time was a global operation consisting of hundreds of manufacturing plants, making such products as "Brawny" and "Northern Bathroom Tissue".

You don't remember that one Chris? His assailant emptied a 9mm pistol into him and then committed suicide.

 

[jetflyer]

We are not running out of oil any time soon. What we are running out of is the cheap, easy to get to, easy to refine oil that we have enjoyed for so long.

USMCmech,

You seem to know a lot about oil production.

When do you think conventional oil production will peak? I'm curious from your studies.

Also do you not think conventional oil eventually peaking will be a big deal for the world? China has only enough coal for themselves and their demand increases every day, and the U.S. has about 80% of the world's oil shale.

Do you not think wars might be fought as conventional oil peaks?

At Chevron's site about moving past oil found at www.willyoujoinus.com Chevron says that 33 of the 48 major oil producing countries are past their peak oil production. Is this not a big deal?

These 33 of the 48 major oil producing countries are declining every year and the rest of the world has to drill a lot more oil to first just overcome their average of about 6% decline. Is this not a big deal?

What did you think about the country by country and field by field analysis on oil production by Rembrandt H.E.M. Koppelaar from the Netherlands which can be found at: http://www.peakoil.nl/images/oil_production_outlook_2005-2040.pdf?

As you know he included the tar sands of Canada, deep sea drilling, and advanced recovery techniques like water injection and multi-lateral horizontal drilling to get the "expensive oil". Accounting for these in his study he concludes a global Oil peak will occur in 2012-13.

Do you agree with his conclusions?

I hope you don't mind me asking so many questions, but I'm just interested in your opinions since you seem to know a lot. It's good to have intelligent, educated discussions on here. That's one reason I love this site so much.

Thank you,
Jet

 

[pilotyip]

Oh! My gad I agree with G200. We are going through an adjustment process to come in line with the rest of the world. Germany the third largest economy in the world survives with high gas prices. They have a thriving int'l airline. Adam Smith figureed this out in 1790 and he still rules. We will adjust our spending and make rational decisions in our best interest. i.e. Now the 45 MPG car is a better idea than a 4 X 4 500 Cu in 6- door pickup truck.

 

[Freight Dog]

You can thank 9/11 for the airlines being the way they are. Every airline CEO used it to declare war on labor. Sure, people were afraid to fly for 2 months or so following the 9/11, and we lured them back with ridiculously low fares.

Now that the average American has TOTALLY forgotten 9/11, everyone and their mother's lost cousin is flying again. Naturally, they don't make enough revenue to cover their costs, so they turn to charitable organizations such as ALPA, AFA, IAM, etc. and ask for money. Feeling sorry for the poor CEO's, and buying the management b.s. that their airlines will close up shop, these charitable organizations hand over the cash left and right just so average Joe can fly to Florida for less than what a nonrev ticket should cost.

That does not warrant government intervention. It requires a sanity and a gut check at the airline charities called ALPA, AFA and IAM, etc. for as long as they are in the giving mood, the airline CEO's have no incentive to add those fuel surcharges, or raise ticket prices to meet the demand.

 

[USMCmech]

Jetflyr

Most of my info comes from my dad who is a manager at ExxonMobil's Beaumont refinery.

RE: your quote about the peak of oil production from the chevron website. The exact quote was "Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries". The key word there is "production" not nessacerally actuall supply.

Ther has been a decline of textile "production" in the USA. Not because we are running out of cotton, or mills, or workers, but because it's cheaper to have clothes made in Tiawan.

The same thing holds true for oil. There is still plenty of oil burried under the US, plus the oil shale and other possibilities that haven't been completly researched. However right now it's cheaper to buy crude from Canada, Mexico, and west Africa. FYI we buy very little oil from the persian gulf countries, shipping costs make that too expensive.

With oil prices as high as they are, the oil compaines are definately looking at developing new was to extract oil. Because of HUGE amounts of money (think hundreds of billions) involved, you better belive that the oil compaines are thinking well ahead.



One of the main reasons that Jet A has become so expensive is the switch to low sulfur desiel mandated by the EPA. The retrofit to do this at the Beaumont refinery alone was over 2 billion dollars. That cost is passed along to consumers. This also reduced the amount of gas, diesel, and Jet A that can be refined out of a barrel of oil.

No fair complaining about the oil companies passing these costs along to consumers. We voted for the politicians who made the law, and in doing so we agreed to pay the extra cost.

 

[EuroWheenie]

Snakum

At the same time, in the Federal Republic of Germany it was almost DM 6.00 per liter. Calculate that one.

Ehh, not quite mate. Actually, you're very far off the mark. I can't remember ever seeing prices on the German Autobahn (most expensive place to buy gas in DE) much above DM 2.00/Litre. Current price is around EUR 1.25/Litre, roughly equal to DM 2.50/litre. In Dollars and US Gallons that's around USD 7.5/Gallon. Count yerselfs lucky guys, your gas is not taxed to same extent as over this side of the pond. And Germany is not the most expensive place to get gas; the UK is, I belive, topping the charts.

Now there two ways to reduce the price of gas, either increase supply or decrease demand. By combining the two, you'd get the best result. By putting a heavy tax on the ridiculously stupid trucks alot of Americans are buying, you'd see a reduction in demand. By increasing gas prices, you'd force people to buy more fuel efficient cars, thereby reducing demand. I'm not saying that we should all drive a VW Fox, but on the other hand a 5.4L V8 powering a 3 ton truck is hardly required for transportation.

PS
Recently paid DHL in Wilmington a visit, and wanted to see for myself what the bloody attraction of trucks are. So I hired a F-150, 4x4 and with a 5.4L V8. And frankly guys, it drove like shyte! Sure, all was well and somewhat comfortable on a well paved straight and level interstate. But my (by comparison) dinky little A3 which is powered by a 2.0L diesel engine is far more comfortable, drives 1000 times better, is vastly superior in build quality, is way faster and even has an indoor boot for the belongings! About the only thing it doesn't do is seat 5 people as comfortably, but it'll do 4 adults just fine. So why in the bloody hell would anybody choose something as hideous, expensive, poorly built and with crappy road holding abilities when there are much better alternativies around? Bigger, ladies and gentlemen, is very seldom better when it comes to automobiles!

Oh, and for price comparisons. I couldn't find the A3 Sportsback 2.0 TDi on the US Audi site, so went for 2.0 Turbo (200BHP) with DSG box instead. The price for that is 26.2K. A 2006 Ford F-150 XLT 4x4 is 26.5K USD. Now why would anybody with just half a brain spend 3OO USD more on an inferior car, if it not for some pig ignorant 'mine's bigger than yours' syndrome?

 

[jetflyer]

USMech,

When Chevron says:
"Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries", they are saying these countries have passed their peak production.

The U.S. passed its peak production in 1971 at 10 million barrels a day.

The U.S.'s oil production has been in decline every year since and now produces about 7 million barrels a day.

The U.S. even brought online the North Slope of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico oil after 1971 and they NEVER STOPPED the overall DECLINE in production, only SLOWED the DECLINE in production.

I think the problem is not as simple as any of us would like to think it is. Advanced recovery techniques are in use everywhere today and will help push the peak back to about 2012-13 according to Koppellar, but as Matthew Simmons says the techniques HAVE BEEN FOUND to act only as "super straws" that allow you to suck the obtainable oil out faster, and after the oil is pulled out, the DECLINES are more severe after peak production. You barely get an increase at all in the TOTAL amount recovered. The Red Sea and Australian oil production for example, after having used all the advanced recovery techniques known to man, have both been declining about 13-15% per year and the total amount predicted to be obtained has not increased! The owners of the largest offshore oil field known to man, known as the Mexican Cantarell oilfield, which has used all known advanced recovery techniques, located just west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico have said their oilfield has reached peak and they expect declines of 10-15% per year.

Saudi Arabia gets 50-60% of their yearly oil production from one oil field, the King of all Kings, the Ghawar Oil Field, which produces over 5 million barrels a day, which is about 6% of total worldwide oil production.

This Ghawar field has been producing oil since the 1940s. Saudi Arabia has only had one significant find, which is a group of oilfields known as the "Hawtah Trend" in the last 4 and a half decades!! Saudi Arabia has found all the significant oil fields they will ever find. Every field in Saudi Arabia is tired and old. Saudi Arabia according to experts is close to joining those 33 of 48 countries in decline very, very soon. Claims by Saudi Oil minister Al Naimi that they can fuel the world for decades to come has even been discounted by past Saudi Aramco executives.

Ghawar, which is very scary to think about will very soon join the likes of other great fields that have passed their peak and declined: Oseberg, Brent, Gullfaks, Prudhoe, Slaughter, Romashkino, Forties, and Samotlor.

Let's hope tired old Ghawar hangs on.

Oil production in decline is just that "in decline" and in almost all cases a countries new production increases will never overcome the declines like in the United States.

Please read this one short article about peak oil production and declines. It is the greatest level headed description I've ever seen about the oil production problem:
www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426

Before you reply, please tell me you've read the very short article.

Jet

 

[FN FAL]

Now there two ways to reduce the price of gas, either increase supply or decrease demand. By combining the two, you'd get the best result. By putting a heavy tax...

Funny you should mention tax. Gas taxes, registration taxes and excise taxes are not mentioned in your post regarding the European fuel price comparison.

Currently, the U.K. is considering using GPS to tax your movement with your vehicle. They want to have higher taxes on segments of roads that are over used during different times of the day, so that people will consider different or alternate routes to avoid getting taxed at the higher rate during rush hour. They will use GPS tracking devices to accomplish this.

From what I read, there is a couple of counties in Oregon that are part of a feasability study regarding using GPS to tax people's movements.

But to correlate to what you're talking about, you also have to consider all the cost aspects of car ownership and usage, not just the price of fuel at the pump and fuel tax.

 

[cforst513]

i'm watching the discovery channel and they're talking about the history of body armor. in suffolk, VA, a cop got shot and was saved by a vest. the file footage showed the gas station where she was. in 1998, gas was $1.07 for regular, $1.12 for super, and $1.18 for premium. sigh......

 

[jetflyer]

In 1998 there was too much production for the world to use.

I remember delivering pizza that year and buying gasoline for $0.83/gallon!!

Oh the good 'ole days.

Jet

edited to add: Dangit I just had a horrible thought: I may be delivering Pizza again one day if these oil prices stay high!

 

[jetflyer]

IKES just saw on CNBC, that JET FUEL PRICES are soaring today up to 3.03/gallon JET FUEL.

They said Jet fuel prices are up 129% this year!

I better brush the dust off my Domino's uniform, lol

Jet

 

[USMCmech]

Saudi Arabia gets 50-60% of their yearly oil production from one oil field, the King of all Kings, the Ghawar Oil Field, which produces over 5 million barrels a day, which is about 6% of total worldwide oil production.

This Ghawar field has been producing oil since the 1940s. Saudi Arabia has only had one significant find, which is a group of oilfields known as the "Hawtah Trend" in the last 4 and a half decades!! Saudi Arabia has found all the significant oil fields they will ever find. Every field in Saudi Arabia is tired and old. Saudi Arabia according to experts is close to joining those 33 of 48 countries in decline very, very soon. Claims by Saudi Oil minister Al Naimi that they can fuel the world for decades to come has even been discounted by past Saudi Aramco executives.

This is what I am most curious about.

What happens to Saudi Arabia when their oil starts to run out?

They have no other resources, yet one of the highest birth rates in the world. It's not like they can grow more. Their entire society is based on selling oil, and spending that money on their citizens. So what happens when that cash isn't there any more?


Jet,

I did read that article. I agree with some of the points, however I don't see a calimity coming in the near future because of high energy prices. Our spending habits will adapt. For example SUV sales have begun to fall, while sales and intrest in hybrid cars is up.

OTOH, anybody hoping to see gas prices fall back to where they were back in the late 90s better not be holding their breath.

 

[jetflyer]

USMCmech,

First, thanks for reading the article. Most people wouldn't have.

As far as Saudi Arabia, I recommend reading a book by Matthew Simmons. He was an adviser to Cheney in his SECRET energy meetings. Hmmm, secret, how come? Peak Oil? It has to be kept a secret as much as possible. I don't blame them.

His book is Twilight in the Desert, "The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy". This 400 page book, available at any bookstore, is very educational on all oil extraction methods and oil production in general and not just Saudi Arabia.

He analyzed over 200 recent Society of Petroleum Engineer (SPE) papers that they've written on the problems occurring in their main fields. They are having serious problems, especially in southern Ghawar. They have THE MOST ADVANCED, I kid you not, recovery techniques known to man. They are very, very advanced in how they pull out the oil. The problem is they have to be, it looks like, to just MAINTAIN, their oil production.

All spare capacity they have currently is HEAVY SOUR, which is very dangerous and toxic, and is the stuff the SHELL PLANT in TX, has been using every time they are having the fires and explosions. The stuff is very dangerous and requires very specialized refineries which we don't have many of in America.

Simmons did an intensive field by field analysis of all of Saudi Arabia's oil and natural gas production. He discusses what will happen when their production goes into decline. You're right about their out of control population boom being a problem. Their natural gas production has been a major, major disappointment and they are having problems supplying their own populations and keeping them happy. Everything there is definitely HEAVILY SUBSIDIZED. Keeping them happy will be very, very difficult as the prices rise as well. Problems will grow even worse as their production declines.

Can you say "MORE PISSED OFF FUTURE TERRORISTS" blaming America!!

Great,
Jet

 

[milehigh6080]

By putting a heavy tax on the ridiculously stupid trucks alot of Americans are buying, you'd see a reduction in demand.

There is already a tax on those ridiculously stupid trucks that a lot of Americans are buying- it's a tax in the form of 15 mpg rather than 30 mpg that they could get from a car. That's pretty taxing if you ask me. Why have more government meddling when the free market will do it all by itself. Sure there are still people buying trucks, but I know a lot of people with trucks who are already trading them in for more fuel efficient cars.

I agree with you about trucks by the way. I love them for their utility factor, but would never drive one on a daily basis, they drive like crap and cost too much money to operate. Just because I don't desire to drive one every day, doesn't mean that I want to tax and punish someone that does. I think the hit at the pump is punishment enough. The market works if you don't mess with it too much.

 

[Snakum]

Negative Weenie ... in 1987, 88, and 89 I bought gas (Benzine) weekly in the little Bavarian town where I lived and in a hundred others over that three year period, and always at between DM 5.00 and DM 6.00 per liter.

Perhaps you're thinking Euros, mate? Cuz I doubt it has come down that much in fifteen years.


Minh

 

[jetflyer]

USMCmech,

I actually think the economic problems will be slow in the making, and might not be as bad, in AMERICA, as in other countries dependent on oil, coal, or natural gas imports. The rest of the world is going to be in more trouble than us, because we have so much coal and oil shale. The problem is going to be ramping those up fast enough to OVERCOME the declines of the world. Many people think it will be impossible.

We need oil shale and coal to oil processes to hurry! These plants are going to take 5 years to even begin producing, and about 10 to begin giving us any amounts that are significant. We need them to really hurry.

From what I've become aware of natural gas is going to become a larger and more more immediate problem.

This winter will be interesting.

Natural gas in North America is close to peak now and natural gas powers a significant amount of our power plants, heats many people's homes, and is needed to process the OIL SANDS!

Liquified Natural Gas(LNG) is much more expensive and we don't have the LNG terminals required to take imports, which take several years to build, to even take in the LNG that is going to be needed. A gigantic port was proposed several years ago on the Baja Peninsula of Mexico, but it still hasn't started construction. Everyone is afraid to build the terminals near them because they are huge, dangerous, and they're all worried about terrorism problems. Damn NIMBYs.

Also Natural Gas does not decline nice and slow like oil production does. When natural gas production in a field begins to decline it falls off a cliff to almost nothing very quickly. Imports are going to be needed immediately.

So the U.S. will have significant natural gas problems first.

We need nuclear power to be ramped up immediately to help overcome some our energy problems. Everyone says it takes 10 years to build a nuclear power plant, but I've heard they can be made as quick as 3 years. I wish Bush would have gotten them started in 2001 when he first tried. We need to begin making the nuclear power plants asap.

The future energy problems are going to be a struggle no matter what. Let's hope conservation and new alternatives can hurry and not too many wars are fought for oil and natural gas.

Jet