jetflyer
Concerned Citizen
- Joined
- Mar 8, 2002
- Posts
- 2,040
USMech,
When Chevron says:
"Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries", they are saying these countries have passed their peak production.
The U.S. passed its peak production in 1971 at 10 million barrels a day.
The U.S.'s oil production has been in decline every year since and now produces about 7 million barrels a day.
The U.S. even brought online the North Slope of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico oil after 1971 and they NEVER STOPPED the overall DECLINE in production, only SLOWED the DECLINE in production.
I think the problem is not as simple as any of us would like to think it is. Advanced recovery techniques are in use everywhere today and will help push the peak back to about 2012-13 according to Koppellar, but as Matthew Simmons says the techniques HAVE BEEN FOUND to act only as "super straws" that allow you to suck the obtainable oil out faster, and after the oil is pulled out, the DECLINES are more severe after peak production. You barely get an increase at all in the TOTAL amount recovered. The Red Sea and Australian oil production for example, after having used all the advanced recovery techniques known to man, have both been declining about 13-15% per year and the total amount predicted to be obtained has not increased! The owners of the largest offshore oil field known to man, known as the Mexican Cantarell oilfield, which has used all known advanced recovery techniques, located just west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico have said their oilfield has reached peak and they expect declines of 10-15% per year.
Saudi Arabia gets 50-60% of their yearly oil production from one oil field, the King of all Kings, the Ghawar Oil Field, which produces over 5 million barrels a day, which is about 6% of total worldwide oil production.
This Ghawar field has been producing oil since the 1940s. Saudi Arabia has only had one significant find, which is a group of oilfields known as the "Hawtah Trend" in the last 4 and a half decades!! Saudi Arabia has found all the significant oil fields they will ever find. Every field in Saudi Arabia is tired and old. Saudi Arabia according to experts is close to joining those 33 of 48 countries in decline very, very soon. Claims by Saudi Oil minister Al Naimi that they can fuel the world for decades to come has even been discounted by past Saudi Aramco executives.
Ghawar, which is very scary to think about will very soon join the likes of other great fields that have passed their peak and declined: Oseberg, Brent, Gullfaks, Prudhoe, Slaughter, Romashkino, Forties, and Samotlor.
Let's hope tired old Ghawar hangs on.
Oil production in decline is just that "in decline" and in almost all cases a countries new production increases will never overcome the declines like in the United States.
Please read this one short article about peak oil production and declines. It is the greatest level headed description I've ever seen about the oil production problem:
www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426
Before you reply, please tell me you've read the very short article.
Jet
When Chevron says:
"Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries", they are saying these countries have passed their peak production.
The U.S. passed its peak production in 1971 at 10 million barrels a day.
The U.S.'s oil production has been in decline every year since and now produces about 7 million barrels a day.
The U.S. even brought online the North Slope of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico oil after 1971 and they NEVER STOPPED the overall DECLINE in production, only SLOWED the DECLINE in production.
I think the problem is not as simple as any of us would like to think it is. Advanced recovery techniques are in use everywhere today and will help push the peak back to about 2012-13 according to Koppellar, but as Matthew Simmons says the techniques HAVE BEEN FOUND to act only as "super straws" that allow you to suck the obtainable oil out faster, and after the oil is pulled out, the DECLINES are more severe after peak production. You barely get an increase at all in the TOTAL amount recovered. The Red Sea and Australian oil production for example, after having used all the advanced recovery techniques known to man, have both been declining about 13-15% per year and the total amount predicted to be obtained has not increased! The owners of the largest offshore oil field known to man, known as the Mexican Cantarell oilfield, which has used all known advanced recovery techniques, located just west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Gulf of Mexico have said their oilfield has reached peak and they expect declines of 10-15% per year.
Saudi Arabia gets 50-60% of their yearly oil production from one oil field, the King of all Kings, the Ghawar Oil Field, which produces over 5 million barrels a day, which is about 6% of total worldwide oil production.
This Ghawar field has been producing oil since the 1940s. Saudi Arabia has only had one significant find, which is a group of oilfields known as the "Hawtah Trend" in the last 4 and a half decades!! Saudi Arabia has found all the significant oil fields they will ever find. Every field in Saudi Arabia is tired and old. Saudi Arabia according to experts is close to joining those 33 of 48 countries in decline very, very soon. Claims by Saudi Oil minister Al Naimi that they can fuel the world for decades to come has even been discounted by past Saudi Aramco executives.
Ghawar, which is very scary to think about will very soon join the likes of other great fields that have passed their peak and declined: Oseberg, Brent, Gullfaks, Prudhoe, Slaughter, Romashkino, Forties, and Samotlor.
Let's hope tired old Ghawar hangs on.
Oil production in decline is just that "in decline" and in almost all cases a countries new production increases will never overcome the declines like in the United States.
Please read this one short article about peak oil production and declines. It is the greatest level headed description I've ever seen about the oil production problem:
www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426
Before you reply, please tell me you've read the very short article.
Jet
Last edited: