jetflyer
Concerned Citizen
- Joined
- Mar 8, 2002
- Posts
- 2,040
Mzaharis,
You're right about demand not changing easily. Demand has historically always gone up about 2% per year. Currently demand has been increasing about 3% per year with the help of China and India. It's going to be very difficult to simply stop demand increases, let alone begin using less per year.
Many argue that the only way to reduce our demand after peak oil by 5% per year is going to be through a demand destruction.
First people will try to carpool. They'll change their vehicle type. Public transportation will take off like crazy.
But high gas prices will not be the only problem. Natural gas prices will go up. Food prices will go up. The prices of every good imaginable will go up.
Fertilizers and pesticides are made from fossil fuels. Plastics are too. We can't shift away from using fossil fuels for these things overnight either.
Trains will have to be used to transport our food and goods long distances much, much more instead of tractor trailers. Many other parts of our society will have to change as well.
Economists are now talking about just from Katrina and Rita the chances of STAGFLATION in the economy. Rising energy costs would definitely cause this.
Stagflation= Shrinking economy with rising inflation.
This would be very bad. People's wallets are going to be pinched so much they're gonna close them. People are going to eat out less. They're going to go to the movies less. They won't take that vacation to Disney World this year.
A shrinking economy is the main problem with peak oil and natural gas problems.
When you have a shrinking economy OIL usage WILL go down. More people will be unemployed and they won't be DRIVING to work.
This is going to be a crappy experiment to watch get played out. Can alternatives be ramped up and other methods of transportation make a big enough difference to keep the economy from shrinking year over year? Let's hope so. A stationary economy would be then seen as a good economy. It's all going to depend on HOW FAST the decline in oil occurs.
If oil production declines at only 3% per year we might be OK and everyone will say, "wow that wasn't that big of a deal" because alternatives may be enough.
But if world oil production declines almost like the Red Sea or Australia at around 12% per year then this would almost be impossible to overcome without a shrinking economy and probably a depression.
Let's hope for a slow decline and a fasttrack to alternatives,
Jet
You're right about demand not changing easily. Demand has historically always gone up about 2% per year. Currently demand has been increasing about 3% per year with the help of China and India. It's going to be very difficult to simply stop demand increases, let alone begin using less per year.
Many argue that the only way to reduce our demand after peak oil by 5% per year is going to be through a demand destruction.
First people will try to carpool. They'll change their vehicle type. Public transportation will take off like crazy.
But high gas prices will not be the only problem. Natural gas prices will go up. Food prices will go up. The prices of every good imaginable will go up.
Fertilizers and pesticides are made from fossil fuels. Plastics are too. We can't shift away from using fossil fuels for these things overnight either.
Trains will have to be used to transport our food and goods long distances much, much more instead of tractor trailers. Many other parts of our society will have to change as well.
Economists are now talking about just from Katrina and Rita the chances of STAGFLATION in the economy. Rising energy costs would definitely cause this.
Stagflation= Shrinking economy with rising inflation.
This would be very bad. People's wallets are going to be pinched so much they're gonna close them. People are going to eat out less. They're going to go to the movies less. They won't take that vacation to Disney World this year.
A shrinking economy is the main problem with peak oil and natural gas problems.
When you have a shrinking economy OIL usage WILL go down. More people will be unemployed and they won't be DRIVING to work.
This is going to be a crappy experiment to watch get played out. Can alternatives be ramped up and other methods of transportation make a big enough difference to keep the economy from shrinking year over year? Let's hope so. A stationary economy would be then seen as a good economy. It's all going to depend on HOW FAST the decline in oil occurs.
If oil production declines at only 3% per year we might be OK and everyone will say, "wow that wasn't that big of a deal" because alternatives may be enough.
But if world oil production declines almost like the Red Sea or Australia at around 12% per year then this would almost be impossible to overcome without a shrinking economy and probably a depression.
Let's hope for a slow decline and a fasttrack to alternatives,
Jet
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